What to watch as the New England Patriots visit the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15.
With such a late bye week, the New England Patriots’ final four games of the 2024 season turn into somewhat of a sprint to the finish. After their week off the Patriots return for one month of games, starting this Sunday on the road at the Arizona Cardinals.
This is an important stretch of games for the Patriots, even without the chance of a playoff push. At the beginning of the year, a major focus on what would constitute a successful season for this first-year coaching staff was showing progress from the beginning of the year to the end. That sort of progress hasn’t been sustained yet, but with the final four games against teams in the playoff hunt this Patriots team has a chance to prove it can be a tough out for tougher opponents.
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“Really the goal remains the same, and that’s to play our best football at the end of the year,” head coach Jerod Mayo said on Wednesday. “That’s the goal. Do we always hit the goals? No, but we’re going to do our best to hit that goal.”
“It’s all about winning. It’s all about going out there, playing complimentary football, and that’s what we want to see. That has been the goal,” Mayo added. “Early in the season, I said the same thing. When we get to the end of the season, we’ve got to make sure that we’re playing our best football, and that’s still the goal.”
How do the Patriots do that? Let’s take a look at some keys to this game, plus one other league-wide topic in this week’s “5 Things”…
Big test for the defensive front
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – OCTOBER 21: Quarterback Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals hands off to James Conner #6 during the NFL game against the Los Angeles Chargers at State Farm Stadium on October 21, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the Chargers 17-15. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
It’s been a tough season for the Patriots’ defensive front, but more than maybe any other unit on the team they’re set up to end on a high note. Christian Barmore returned a few weeks ago and has continued to ramp up into full football shape. Other players are getting healthier too, and they’ve added Yannick Ngakoue as well.
The first challenge is stopping the run. Arizona has one of the higher rush rates in the league, running the ball 45.7 percent of the time. They do that for good reason – they’re good at it. Their 5.2 yards per carry rank third in the league.
Leading that ground attack is running back James Conner is still getting it done in his eighth NFL season. “It’s been very impressive to see that a guy at this age is still running very hard,” Jerod Mayo said this week. “He’s tough, he can run between the tackles, he can run outside, he can run you over, he can run around you, so he’s a very good player.”
That’s just half of the Cardinals’ ground game. They can also burn teams on the group even when they’re trying to pass the ball with Kyler Murray a threat with his legs as well as his arm.
On one hand, the Patriots’ defensive front will need to contain Murray. At the same time, they can’t be too passive in their contain that they don’t get pressure on him. Murray has been impacted by pressure much more than the average quarterback this year. His 58.7 passer rating against pressure is the third-worst among qualified NFL quarterbacks this year, and is nearly half of his 104.7 passer rating from clean pockets.
Drake Maye keeping tabs on the defense
August 8, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) under center during the first half against the Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium. Photo Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
On the other side of the ball, this game will be a big test for Drake Maye, especially before the snap. Arizona will throw multiple looks at the Patriots including disguises, so there will be a lot for him to keep track of.
“They definitely play fast and they fly around, regardless of position,” Jerod Mayo said this week. “In saying that, I think one of the big things as you watch their defense is just versatility. You just don’t know where those guys are going to line up.”
Budda Baker is the Cardinals’ biggest chess piece defensively. He’s been on the field for 98 percent of the team’s defensive snaps this year moving around at the second and third levels. He does a great job of getting to the point of attack, and his 98 solo tackles lead the NFL.
Usually teams that move around that much defensively lean on turnovers. Early on that was the case for the Cardinals, as they forced 10 in their first seven games including at least one in each of the seven games. However, those numbers have dropped off and they have just three total turnovers forced in the last seven games – tied for the fewest in the NFL in that span.
Cutting down on turnovers still should be the primary developmental focus for Maye down the stretch. Last time out against the Indianapolis Colts was his best game in that regard. Can he follow it up Sunday? Or will the Cardinals’ defense use this as a get-right game?
Who’s snapping the ball?
Patriots offensive lineman Cole Strange during a Wednesday practice. (Alex Barth/98.5 The Sports Hub)
Drake Maye isn’t the only one who will be keeping tabs on the Cardinals’ defense. In the Patriots’ offensive system, the center also plays a key role making adjustments at the line.
Who will that center be? After eight solid games from mid-season signing Ben Brown a change could be on the way with Cole Strange activated from IR. Patriots coaches have left the door open for Strange to return to his natural position of left guard, or potentially move inside to center for a more long-term developmental plan to eventually replace David Andrews.
On the surface, putting Strange back in at left guard makes the most sense. That position is currently held by rookie Layden Robinson, who has already been benched twice this year and is a natural right guard. Strange would return to his natural spot, and replace a player who hasn’t been reliable. Putting Strange at left guard would also keep the continuity and chemistry built up between Maye and Brown.
However, the coaching staff seems to be highly invested in Robinson, as well as seeing Strange at center in order to get a more complete evaluation of him at the position. Given the team’s record, the long-term approach could win out, at least to start the game.
Pressure on Joey Slye?
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 01: Joey Slye #13 of the New England Patriots reacts after missing a field goal during the first half of a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium on December 01, 2024 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
After kicker Joey Slye went 3-for-6 in the two games leading up to the bye week, the Patriots began this week by bringing in competition. At the start of the week they signed kicker John Parker Romo to their practice squad.
While a move may not be imminent, the message is clear. Slye – who is on an expiring contract – is kicking for his future over the last four games of the season. Obviously players are always being evaluated, but a move like bringing in Romo changes the stakes.
Adding to that, Slye will face off against his former teammate Chad Ryland. Slye beat Ryland out for the starting kicking job in camp this summer. Ryland has since found success in Arizona, including winning NFC Special Teams Player of the Month earlier this year.
Coming off of two rough weeks and a week off, can Slye bounce back? Or, will he open the door to a late season kicking competition?
Draft watch
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
With it being this late in the season, we can start paying a little bit closer attention to the upcoming draft order. Entering Week 15 the Patriots hold the third pick. They have the strength of schedule tiebreaker over a handful of other three-win teams, leaving them behind only the two-win Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants.
The Patriots would likely hold the tiebreaker over those teams as well, so there is plenty of room for movement over the last month. Could any of it come this week?
If the Patriots beat the struggling Cardinals the farthest they would fall back is to the ninth pick – assuming all the other three-win teams lost.
As for moving up – the Giants play the Baltimore Ravens this week on the road. A win there may qualify as the upset of the season.
However, the Raiders play a struggling Atlanta Falcons team in Vegas. That game isn’t until Monday night, but it bears watching for Patriots fans. With the Giants and Raiders both needing quarterbacks, if the Patriots move ahead of either in the draft order it could set up a lucrative trade down scenario in a two-quarterback draft.
