A lot has changed since the New England Patriots first faced the New York Jets in Week 3. Which team will show more growth when the teams meet again this Sunday?
For the first time in the 2024 season, the New England Patriots will get their second shot at an opponent. On Sunday, the Patriots host the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium.
It was the first game against the Jets five weeks ago when things started falling apart for the Patriots. After two competitive games to start the season the Pats went into the Meadowlands and got dominated in all three phases, falling 24-3.
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A lot has changed for both teams since that game. The Jets have a new coach, firing Robert Saleh the week after that game. He was replaced by defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. On offense the Jets stripped play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and gave them to quarterbacks coach and pass game coordinator Todd Downing.
Personnel-wise the Jets did more to help the offense. They went out and acquired wide receiver Davante Adams, reuniting him with quarterback Aaron Rodgers from their Packers days.
Obviously the big change in New England is at the quarterback position, where Drake Maye has taken over for Jacoby Brissett (although Maye did get some run against the Jets, with that being the only game he played in as a backup).
There are other changes for the Patriots as well, necessitated by injuries or other movement on the roster. That includes multiple changes at wide receiver, where we’ll start this week’s 5 Things…
Who steps up at wide receiver?
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 13: Kayshon Boutte #9 of the New England Patriots celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Houston Texans during the second quarter at Gillette Stadium on October 13, 2024 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Last time the Patriots played the Jets their top three receivers in terms of usage were DeMario Douglas (83 percent usage rate), K.J. Osborn (75 percent), and Ja’Lynn Polk (50 percent). Douglas was the only one to finish with more than two catches.
Expect that group to look different this week. Osborn has been phased out in recent weeks, and Polk is in concussion protocol making him unlikely to play this week.
Part of Osborn being phased out has been the return of Kendrick Bourne, who was still on IR when the Patriots first played the Jets. Last week, Bourne was the Patriots’ second-most used receiver.
For the most part, the team has used a four receiver rotation this year. Douglas and Bourne should be at the top of that this week, but who will grab the other two spots?
One should go to Kayshon Boutte. Boutte has steadily improved throughout the season as the team’s ‘X’ receiver and has been on the receiving end of a deep pass play in each of the last two games. When the Patriots are in base ‘11’ personnel, he should be the third receiver with Douglas and Bourne.
The next spot is less clear. Osborn is certainly a candidate after catching a touchdown last week. At the same time, this could be a good opportunity to get another look at rookie Javon Baker, who hasn’t played since Week 2. Baker struggled early on but as a fourth-round pick it’s too early for the Patriots to quit on him entirely. Finally there’s Tyquan Thornton, who hasn’t had a catch since the opener, hasn’t seen a target since Week 4, and has been a healthy scratch in each of the last two weeks.
In a bubble Baker makes the most sense, with a team full of young players that should be evaluated for the future. At the same time, the focus may be more on doing what’s best for Drake Maye, which would mean having more reliable receivers on the field. If that’s the case, Osborn would likely get the nod.
Improving the run game
Oct 20, 2024; London, United Kingdom; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes to New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) in the first half during an NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Photo Credit: Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images
The Patriots have to be better on the ground if they’re going to get back to being competitive. The last two weeks the run game has been non-existent, with the running backs combining to average just 1.9 yards per carry.
“Disappointing thing for us was the run game. Have to find more production through the run,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said on Thursday, reflecting on his team’s performance on the ground against Jacksonville.
“There’s definitely some variation of runs that maybe we haven’t shown yet. There’s a lot of stuff that we can do,” Van Pelt said, when asked about potential improvements. “But ultimately we have to be better up front, and move those guys off the ball, get our backs to the linebacker level and let them do what they do best.”
Improving the run game does start up front, and the Patriots will need a better performance from their offensive line. That’s where it will be up to the group up front to respond in the right way to Jerod Mayo’s “soft” comments from last week.
At the same time, as Van Pelt mentioned, there are some things the Patriots can do to help schematically. The big one would be getting Drake Maye more involved in the run game. He’s had success so far as a ball-carrier, but that has been on scrambles only. Mixing in some designed quarterback runs or even read options would add another angle, and not allow pass rushers to be as aggressive as it would give them another outcome to have to look for.
Finally, there’s using the passing game to set up the run game. The Patriots have proven they can run the ball – through Week 5 they ranked ninth in the NFL averaging 4.9 yards per carry. They rank dead last averaging 2.9 yards per carry since, which coincides with when Maye took over as the starter.It makes sense that opposing defenses would force a rookie quarterback to beat them by throwing, but Maye has had success through the air so far, and if that continues at some point opposing defenses will need to allocate less resources in the box, which should help open things up on the ground. The way to really take advantage of that for the Patriots is to keep throwing.
Winning on the line of scrimmage defensively
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 19: Keion White #99 and Davon Godchaux #92 of the New England Patriots look on during the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 19, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The offense isn’t the only unit where the Patriots need to be better on the line of scrimmage. Defensively, there’s certainly room for improvement as well.
Last week the Patriots struggled up front both against the run and pass. The Jaguars ran for 171 yards on 4.4 yards per carry, while averaging 2.2 yards per carry before contact. There was little if any initial push from the Patriots’ run defenders up front. Once the Jaguars’ running backs got into the second level things didn’t get much better, as the Patriots missed 10 tackles.
Now, the Patriots will face a Jets team that embraces the physical rushing attack with a big offensive line and bruising backs in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. In the Week 3 meeting that duo rushed for a combined 110 yards, with 88 of those yards coming after contact per PFF. The Jets had over 100 yards total off missed tackles in that game. New England won’t win allowing a team what is essentially an extra trip down the field, and will need to be better against the run in this game.
At the same time, the front didn’t generate pressure against the pass. The Patriots were credited with four pressures in that game, and didn’t hit the quarterback once.
Any NFL quarterback when given that much time and a clean pocket will pick apart a defense. A veteran like Aaron Rodgers only becomes more of a threat.
Rodgers hasn’t been great as of late – he’s thrown five touchdowns to six interceptions in the last three games, while taking seven sacks. The Jets are 0-3 in that stretch. If the Patriots can’t put pressure on Rodgers, that could allow him to get back in a rhythm.
Again, the Patriots need to be better up front against the run and pass. But, it’s not that simple. Focusing on one probably means taking personnel away from the other. So, what do the Patriots do? Put their 26th-ranked run defense on an island to keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hand? Or give help to their bigger weakness, which in turn means letting one of the greatest quarterbacks of his era – who is admittedly in a rough stretch at 40 yards old – dictate the game? It’s not an easy choice.
Patriots cornerbacks against bigger Jets receivers
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 20: Davante Adams #17 of the New York Jets reacts during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on October 20, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
In the Week 3 meeting, the Patriots’ smaller cornerbacks had trouble against the Jets’ bigger receivers. 6-foot-5 Allen Lazard and 6-foot-4 Mike Williams had multiple big catches in that game, working mainly against 5-foot-9 Jonathan Jones and 5-foot-8 Marcus Jones.
Will similar mismatches show up in this game? Lazard missed practice Wednesday and Thursday this week, which usually means players aren’t going to play.
Meanwhile, Williams was seemingly falling out of favor after getting called out by Aaron Rodgers following a game two weeks ago and played just 33 percent of the Jets’ snaps last week – his lowest total since the opener.
Even if those two play minimal or no roles, there’s still the Davante Adams of it all. At 6-foot-1 he’s not quite as big, but plays much bigger than he’s listed.
The Patriots could consider putting their biggest cornerback – Christian Gonzalez – on Adams and leaving one or both Jones to take Garrett Wilson, who stylistically is a better matchup. At the same time though that takes their best corner off of a high-volume target who he has had success against in the past.
Limiting penalties…again
Oct 20, 2024; London, United Kingdom; New England Patriots coach Jerod Mayo in the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars during an NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images
In one sense, the Patriots did a better job of limiting penalties last week. They went from being called for 12 against the Dolphins two weeks ago to nine against the Texans to seven against the Jaguars.
While the total number of penalties decreased though, the ones the Patriots did commit came at key moments. Three of the team’s penalties last week came on third downs. That includes a Hunter Henry false start that turned a 3rd & 5 into a 3rd & 10 late in the first half.
They also had a crucial penalty come on special teams. Jahlani Tavai lined up offsides on a PAT, setting up a Jaguars two-point conversion that left the Patriots chasing points all game.
That all came a week after Jerod Mayo talked about the importance of limiting penalties – following a slew of penalties including one on the opening kickoff. However the Patriots don’t need to just cut down on the overall number, put penalties in key situations too. They don’t have the margin for error for either kind of penalties, we’ll see if they can be better about avoiding those kinds of mistakes this week.
