The NFL’s trade deadline is suddenly right around the corner. Teams have until 4 p.m. ET on Oct. 31 to make deals. That’s the Tuesday after Week 8.
Will the Patriots be buyers or sellers at the deadline? Right now, things are trending towards the latter. At best, the team will be .500 by the time deadline day rolls around, and that would mean sweeping the next three games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills.
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Would the Patriots have a full-blown fire sale? History tells us no. But if the team does want to add future assets, it’s in a good position to do so without borrowing too much from the long-term picture. Of the 64 players currently under contract, 22 are on expiring deals. That includes 13 starters or heavily-involved rotational players.
Which players make the most sense for the Patriots to move? Who would bring back the best return? Let’s take a look…
WR Kendrick Bourne
Oct 8, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) runs with the ball during the second half against the New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Through five games, Bourne has been the best wide receiver in the Patriots’ offense. He leads the team with 18 catches for 218 yards, and two touchdowns. That kind of production, in the context of what this offense has been, should draw notice around the league.
What could the Patriots get in return for Bourne? Using last year as precedent (and get ready for that to become a theme), a top-100 pick may not be out of the question. While there’s not direct comp for Bourne, there are two trades that happened that can be used to find the ballpark of Bourne’s value. The Kansas City Chiefs got third- and sixth-round picks for Kadarius Toney – who had been a healthy scratch for most of that season – and the Steelers got a second-round pick for Chase Claypool – who had comparable numbers to what Bourne does now at that point.
If contenders feel they need wide receiver help, there’s evidence that shows they’re wiling to overpay for a player. Could the Patriots take advantage?
TE Hunter Henry
Sep 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) runs a route during the second half at against the Philadelphia Eagles Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Like Bourne, Henry has been able to produce despite the issues around him. He’s right behind Bourne in most of the Patriots’ major statistical categories, with 17 catches for 176 yards and two scores.
Would he have the same value on the trade market? It’s a little harder to say. The only tight end trade at the deadline last year was T.J. Hockenson going with two fourth-round picks to Detroit for a second- and third-round picks. Plus, most of the top contending teams have high-level tight ends. Dallas could be a team to watch though if the Patriots take calls on Henry.
OT Trent Brown
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ: Trent Brown of the New England Patriots in action against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sept. 24, 2023. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
Brown had his worst game of the year against the Saints, after a strong start. If the team keeps losing and he keeps sliding, would a contending team view him as a player who could bounce back with a change of scenery – especially as a pending free agent?
While there’s been a tackle shortage around the league the last few years, no tackles were moved at least year’s trade deadline. In fact only one tackle was traded in-season all year, when the Patriots sent Justin Herron and a seventh-round pick to the Raiders for a sixth-round pick. Brown would certainly get a better return than that, but by how much?
LB Josh Uche
Aug 25, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Josh Uche (55) tackles Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears (32) for a loss during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
The first of two members of the 2020 draft class on this list, Uche figures to have a bigger role moving forward this season after Matthew Judon’s injury. However, if the team is losing games, does his status as a pending free agent supersede that? If the Patriots don’t plan on re-signing him this offseason, the Patriots have enough depth at pass rusher to allow themselves to get something for him now.
Last year’s edge rusher trades were all over the map. Robert Quinn went for a fourth-round pick. Quinn’s situation isn’t a perfect comparison for Uche right now, but it’s as close as their was in 2022.
S Kyle Dugger
New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports)
Of all the players on this list (keep in mind all five are on expiring contracts), Dugger probably makes the most sense to keep. Regardless of what happens with the coaching staff this offseason, Dugger is a player the team can build around in the future. However, he’s also probably one of the players they can get the most for.
Will a team blow away the Patriots with an offer for Dugger, hoping to be able to sign him to a long-term deal without having to go through unrestricted free agency. It could happen. But at the same time, there still should be an eye on keeping Dugger in New England beyond this season.
