It felt like the 2024 NFL offseason was due for a massive wide receiver trade, and on Wednesday morning we got one. The Buffalo Bills have traded two-time All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, according to multiple reports.
The Bills are sending Diggs, along with a 2025 fifth- and sixth-round pick to the Texans, in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick. That pick originally belonged to the Minnesota Vikings, and was acquired by the Texans in a trade earlier this offseason.
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While this is a big trade, it shouldn’t come as a total surprise. Reports and rumors had indicated Diggs might have been unhappy in Buffalo the past few years. The Bills also moved on from a number of key players this offseason, potentially signifying the start of a mini-rebuild. Trading Diggs, who turned 30 in November, fits in line with that plan.
In Houston, Diggs will join a Texans team continuing to build around reigning rookie of the year quarterback C.J. Stroud. While Diggs’ numbers did drop off last year – as is typically the case when receivers turn 30 – he was still among the best receivers in the game catching 107 passes for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns.
That being said, what could all of this mean for the New England Patriots, both in the short term and long term? Let’s take a look…
Impacts on the wide receiver trade market
CINCINNATI, OHIO – DECEMBER 16: Tee Higgins #5 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms up before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Paycor Stadium on December 16, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images)
Assuming the Patriots end up with a young quarterback this offseason, at some point soon they should be looking into pairing him with a star wide receiver to aid in his development – just as the Bills did in 2020 when they acquired Stefon Diggs to play with a young Josh Allen. Generally, these kinds of moves happen through trades.
Whether it’s this offseason or next offseason, this Diggs’ deal should serve as framework for something similar for the Patriots. The name that has been talked about a lot this offseason is Tee Higgins. Higgins is younger than Diggs and needs a new contract, but also isn’t the proven commodity Diggs is. All in all, the cost for Higgins should be relatively similar to the cost for Diggs (maybe the team adding Higgins wouldn’t get back one or both of those late Day 3 picks like the Texans did).
Looking ahead to the 2025 offseason, more often than not these big-name wide receivers who get traded are moved because they need new contracts. Notable receivers entering contract years next spring (pending extensions) include Higgins (assuming he plays on the franchise tag this year), D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, and DeVonta Smith.
Power balance of the AFC East
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: DeMario Douglas #81 of the New England Patriots runs with the ball during the second half of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
Even after the trade, DraftKings still has the Patriots as +2500 to win the AFC East. This trade doesn’t exactly open a door for them in 2024.
At the same time, the growth of the Texans shows how quickly things can change in just a few years, and this trade continues a shift in the power balance of the division. As this offseason continues, it’s become more and more clear all four AFC East teams have real questions about their futures.
The Bills are entering at least a re-tooling, if not a full-on rebuild around Josh Allen. The Jets are going all in on their current roster, which is reliant on a quarterback entering his age-40 season and coming off a torn Achilles, while there are questions about how much his head is truly focused on the game of football. The Dolphins are 5-10 against teams .500 or better in the Mike McDaniel era, and have some pressing decisions looming regarding the contract situations of key players including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Then there are the Patriots, who are in as much of a reset as anybody in the first year post-Bill Belichick. They’ll have a new coach in Jerod Mayo and most likely a rookie quarterback as well.
That’s not to say the Patriots are suddenly in great position in the division. They have their own development to worry about. They won’t be contenders this year, but right now it’s shaping up to be a wide open division in the coming years.
