Well, Yoshinobu Yamamoto made his debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday. The preliminary grade? Aces.
Now, before anyone suggests we reserve a spot for him in Cooperstown, don’t blow it out of proportion. (Even though that’s exactly what we’re doing.) Yamamoto pitched two innings and threw 19 pitches, including 16 strikes. Even in his first outing, he threw a relatively full mix of pitches. He faced six batters, struck out three, walked none and allowed one hit – a single to 21-year-old, left-handed-hitting Evan Carter, who has a career .869 OPS in three minor league seasons and is listed as the game’s No. 4 overall prospect by Baseball America. Carter is built a little like a young Shawn Green and is currently the most highly regarded prospect belonging to the Texas Rangers, who are, of course, the reigning World Series champions.
You know why that last fact is most important? Because the Rangers’ manager is none other than Bruce Bochy, whose perspective on anything related to baseball should never be dismissed.
“Good stuff, I mean, that’s obvious,” Bochy told reporters when asked about Yamamoto. “That’s why they signed him. But this is the first time these guys had a look at him, and I think they all were impressed with the kind of stuff he has.”
So, here in Boston, why are we giving so much attention to Yamamoto? Because the Red Sox wanted him. Badly. (Though maybe not badly enough.) Given what the Red Sox have done to their organizational reputation and, more importantly, allure, in recent years, signing him would have required them to pay Yamamoto well beyond the $325 million the Dodgers gave him during the offseason. It really doesn’t feel like they ever came close or, because of their dwindling clout, like they ever had a chance. But today, ask yourself this question:
Based on what Yamamoto showed yesterday – and we’ll get into that next – is he potentially the kind of pitcher that can change the outlook of a franchise and a season?
And the answer is yes.
The delivery
SURPRISE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 28: Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a second inning pitch against the Texas Rangers during a spring training game at Surprise Stadium on February 28, 2024 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
The photo here is fine, though it does not completely do it justice. Yamamoto has a pretty simple delivery, so much so that it even appears truncated at first glance. But it really isn’t. When he is fully “loaded,” per se, his arm is fully extended to the point where he is borderline textbook. He doesn’t release the ball from three-quarters or sling it all from the side, yet he gets good movement on his pitches and has clear life on his fastball.
Now the things that surprised me a little: first, Yamamoto is thicker in the lower body than I recall from watching some of his video in Japan – maybe he added some bulk for the major league season? – and has some subtle deception in his delivery. Because his delivery is short, it almost feels as if, at times, he is quick-pitching. Especially given his array of pitches – all of which he commands – this can immediately put the hitter on defensive. In the batter’s box, before you know it, it’s almost as if Yamamoto is ready to release the ball. Uh-oh … here he comes. This seems to make his fastball a little faster and, thus, his off-speed offerings more disruptive. He has good stuff. But he’s also a little sneaky.
This video has both regular-speed and half-speed looks at Yamamoto’s delivery. Hopefully, you’ll get the picture (literally and figuratively). But you’ll also get a better understanding of the impact this all has on hitters below.
The stuff
SURPRISE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 28: Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a first inning pitch against the Texas Rangers during a spring training game at Surprise Stadium on February 28, 2024 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Quick note: spring training broadcasts generally fail to include a radar gun, so in some cases it can be difficult to distinguish between, say, a cutter or a slider, a four-seam fastball or a two-seamer. If the pitcher has a significant difference in the shape of those pitches, deciphering is easier. If he doesn’t, it can be more difficult.
In the still photo above, my guess is that Yamamoto is delivering a splitter because his middle finger is on the outside of the ball.
Regardless, Yamamoto showed three core pitches in this outing and demonstrated an ability to command and execute all three. All three also appear to be “plus” pitches, which is to say they are above average. We had to do some creative editing here, but here’s a look at the full at-bat between Yamamoto and Nathaniel Lowe, a career .273 hitter with a .796 OPS in five major league seasons. Yamamoto struck out Lowe on three pitches – a fastball, a curveball and a splitter, the last of which is in slow motion for technical reasons on my end. Lowe makes a pathetic swing – he struck out 165 times last year but also walked 93 times – but he’s clearly defensive after being down in the count, 0-2.
For consistency’s sake, here’s a full-speed version of Yamamoto’s split-fingered pitch, which he uses to strike out Leody Taveras, who struck out 117 times last year with only 35 walks in 511 plate appearances. Taveras is a free swinger but, like Lowe, he commits to swinging early, which suggests defensiveness. Both of the splitters by Yamamoto in these videos appear destined to miss low, which also suggests there is some early dip that fools hitters.
In this second video, the strikeout of Tavares ends the innings. Yamamoto smiles while walking off the mound because he momentarily forgets that Tavares was the third out of the inning.
The approach
SURPRISE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 28: Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a first inning pitch against the Texas Rangers during a spring training game at Surprise Stadium on February 28, 2024 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Subjectively speaking, I find this to be the greatest strength of Yamamoto’s game. Certainly, he has the stuff. But he also knows it. He’s in attack mode from the start. Against all six batters who faced him, Yamamoto threw a first-pitch fastball for a strike. (Only five are shown here because the Dodgers broadcast missed the first pitch of the game’s second at-bat.) With or without the pitch clock, Yamamoto seems to work at a good pace, with good stuff, with purpose. He sets the pace, controls the at-bat, puts the hitter on his heels. How will all of that translate over the course of a 162-game schedule? Time will tell.
