Last week the New England Patriots checked a very important box for their 2023 season, getting their first win of the year under their belt by beating the New York Jets 15-10 on the road. This week the team is away from Gillette Stadium again to check another box – getting back to .500.
For this week’s game the Patriots go from a field that was a nightmare to one of the more iconic venues in the NFL. With the famous blue and white star at midfield, the Patriots will take on the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium this Sunday.
READ MORE:
—The Cowboys are changing their offense as they prepare for the Patriots
—What do the Patriots need to do to create more chunk plays?
—A new motto for the Patriots?
This will be the Patriots’ first trip to Jerry’s World in almost 10 years. Their last trip came in 2015, when the Patriots blew out the Cowboys 30-6.
That game featured a handful of memorable plays, including a 10-yard Dion Lewis touchdown that saw him make half the Cowboys’ defense miss in the process. Still, the lasting memory from that game has become this famous photo of tom Brady leading the Patriots’ offense to the west end zone of the stadium.
ARLINGTON, TX – OCTOBER 11: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots drops back to pass during the second half of the NFL game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. The Patriots defeated the Cowboys 30-6. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Since then the Patriots and Cowboys have played twice – with both games at Gillette Stadium. In 2019 the Cowboys came to town in late November, and the Patriots squeaked out a 13-9 win. That was the Patriots’ sixth win in a row against Dallas head-to-head.
The two teams then met again in October of 2021 – Mac Jones’ rookie year. That game featured much more scoring. There were 27 points scored in the fourth quarter alone. Despite the Patriots having a lead late in the fourth, the Cowboys were able to kick a last-second field goal to force overtime, with Dallas than winning the game on a 35-yard catch-and-run touchdown from CeeDee Lamb.
Now, as the Patriots return to Dallas they face a Cowboys team with plenty of star power, but coming off a stunning loss to the previously-winless Arizona Cardinals last week. Expect the Cowboys to lean on their stars as they try to bounce back, including one player that got plenty of attention during press availability this week. We’ll start with him as we get into what to watch for in this game…
Slowing Micah Parsons, if possible
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 24: Linebacker Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on September 24, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the Cowboys 28-16. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
As Bill Belichick pointed out on Wednesday, the Cowboys have a history of star power. “They obviously have some great players down there, eight guys in the Pro Bowl last year, most in the league,” Belichick noted. “That’s kind of been their history, always had a lot of very good, high-profile players, going back about as far as you want to go back.”
Right now, there is no player on the Cowboys more high-profile than linebacker Micah Parsons. The 2021 first-round pick is one of the elite pass rushers in the league, and has drawn tremendous praise throughout the week in Foxborough. A first-team All-Pro in each of the last two years, he’s already off to another tremendous start this year with four sacks with eight QB hits and five tackles for loss in three games. On Thursday, he was named NFC Defensive Player of the Month.
“Parsons obviously, every stat you could ever want, tackle for loss, pressures, quarterback hits, sacks,” Belichick said when listed off the Cowboys’ defense in his opening statement.
“He’s definitely the top player in the league really, he’s the best player that we’ve gone against so far,” Mac Jones said when it was his turn to discuss the Cowboys’ defense.
But nobody working inside Gillette Stadium had more praise for Parsons than the man tasked with coming up with a gameplan to stop him this Sunday – offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
“Micah Parsons is, I would say one of the top five players in this league, regardless of position,” O’Brien said on Tuesday. “He’s a great football player. [Cowboys defensive coordinator] Dan Quinn does a good job of using him in a lot of different areas. And it just jumps out to you on film.”
“So you have to do a great job of understanding what they’re trying to do with him, where he is. But at the end of the day, like there’s going to be some battles that you’re going to have to fight one on one,” O’Brien continued. “You can’t always double him. You can’t always run away from him or whatever because they do a lot of different things with him. So we have to be aware of him on every single play.”
In that answer, O’Brien really highlights what makes it so hard to gameplan for Parsons. It’s not like Parsons does one thing will that opponents can focus on. He’ll line up all around the formation, and can wreck a game for an offensive through a number of different responsibilities.
O’Brien also dances around another important point with a player of Parsons’ caliber. Sometimes even the perfect plan isn’t enough to stop players like him. Their natural talent can be too much to overcome.
The only way the Patriots can for sure lessen Parsons’ impact as a pass rusher is to not become solely reliant on the pass – something that happened to them in their first two losses of the season. That means not playing from behind, as well as our second thing to watch in the game…
Establish the run (again)
Sep 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
This is the third week in a row some version of establishing the run has shown up in our game keys – and for good reason. This Patriots offense is built to feature the run-game heavily, and aside from slowing down Micah Parsons there are other advantages to proving early on they can run the ball (more favorable personnel matchups, more effective play-action, etc.).
Despite the talent they have up front on paper, the Cowboys have struggled significantly to stop the run this year. Heading into Week 4 they rank 30th in the NFL, allowing 5.3 yards per carry. They’ve allowed the eighth-most rushing yards in the league despite facing the 10th-fewest rushing attempts.
Last week’s game against Arizona showed just how porous that Dallas run defensive can be. After rushing for a combined 247 yards in their first two games, the Cardinals totaled 222 yards on the ground in their 28-16 win.
For the Patriots, last week was their best rushing performance of the season. Against a good Jets front, the Patriots also nearly matched their rushing total from the previous two weeks (164 yards) grounding out 157 yards to the tune of 3.9 yards per carry. Not a great average, but their best of the year and potentially a sign of progress.
There might be some extra motivation for the Patriots to get the ground game going as well. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is returning to Dallas for the first time since getting released by the team in March. The Cowboys drafted Elliott in the first round, sixth overall, in the 2016 NFL Draft and twice Elliott led the league in rushing with the Cowboys. Asked about his return this week Elliott kept his answers all business, but it wouldn’t be surprising if behind closed doors he and his new teammates understand the meaning of this game to him, and use it for motivation.
If the Patriots can establish the run it should also help them in the passing game – especially on play-action. After last week’s game, the Cowboys will likely come in all geared up to prove they can be better against the run. That should make them more vulnerable to play-fakes.
Dare Dallas to throw deep
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 17: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys talks with head coach Mike McCarthy during the fourth quarter against the New York Jets at AT&T Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
The Cowboys’ offense is loaded with big-play threats at wide receiver. CeeDee Lamb is a multi-faceted pass-catcher, and one of the best receivers in the league. There’s also Brandin Cooks, who is a traditional deep threat with his speed. He joins Michael Gallup, a big, physical receiver who can win at the catch point.
With that group, it’s understandable to thing the Cowboys run an explosive offense that hunts chunk plays. That’s who they used to be – last year Dak Prescott averaged 8.2 intended air yards per attempt (IAYPA, which measures the average depth of the intended target of a pass, and doesn’t factor in yards after the catch), which ranked 10th in the NFL.
This offseason though, the Cowboys changed the identity of their offense. Early in the offseason the team ‘mutually parted ways’ with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and replaced him Brian Schottenheimer. At the same time, head coach Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties.
The result has been an offense that is much more conservative and controlled – especially in the passing game. Quick-hitters are now the name of the game in Dallas. Through three weeks, Prescott’s IAYPA is just 5.2 yards. That’s the second-lowest among qualified passers (Colts rookie Anthony Richardson is at 4.9 IAYPA), and a full 1.3 yards behind the next closest QB. For a point of comparison, Mac Jones’ IAYPA this year is 8.3 yards, which is tied for ninth in the NFL.
While the roster may say the Patriots should be weary of the deep ball this week, Dallas’ offensive design says otherwise. Early on, look for the Patriots to stack the box and take away the run and quick passing game, and see if Prescott will test them deep. If he does successfully the team can adjust, but that doesn’t seem to be the game the Cowboys want to play.
This will put more on the plate of rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who was just named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month for September. Gonzalez will likely face another tough test this week in Lamb, but the nature challenge is a little different. With the Cowboys throwing short and looking for yards after the catch, Gonzalez’s tackling will be tested as he works to prevent Lamb from creating with the ball in his hands. Tackling was one of the bigger knocks on Gonzalez coming out of Oregon, so this will be a good measuring stick game for him.
Scoreboard watching
ARLINGTON, TX – AUGUST 21: A general view of the AT&T Stadium video board when the building opened in 2009. There is now a solid covering on the bottom of the board. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
No unit on a football team is swayed more from stadium to stadium than special teams. Typically that’s due to wind patterns, but there can be other elements at play as well.
In Dallas, that ‘other element’ is the massive scoreboard that hangs 90 feet over the turf, and runs most of the length of the playing field. It can come into play specifically in the punting game.
Since the AT&T Stadium opened in 2009 four punts have officially hit the scoreboard, with two happening in the last two seasons. Will Patriots’ rookie punter Bryce Baringer, who has been nicknamed ‘Boominger’ for his ability to boot the ball both incredibly high and incredibly far, add his name to that list.
“I’ve just got to trust my ball and hit my ball and, if it hits it, it hits it. Hopefully it won’t be a huge problem,” Baringer said this week. “It’s just an object that’s there. I’m just going to try and stick to my process and just hit my ball.”
If Baringer clearly hits the scoreboard, the rule is the down is replayed. However, there have been instances where the ball grazes the scoreboard without the officials noticing. That can be tricky for returners, who still have to field the now-deflected kick as a live ball. While coaches can challenge whether or not the ball in fact hit the scoreboard, it’s still something Patriots returners will need to be ready to deal with too.
