Can the New England Patriots get back to 10 wins in 2023, with that schedule?
It’s going to be tough. But at an over/under of 7.5 wins on the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are now one of the NFL’s more underrated teams heading into 2023. They’re favored to hit the over at -120, though, but you should hammer that over anyway. When Felger is saying the Patriots have become underrated and he sounds like a contrarian, you know it’s gotten absurd.
Put all other talk aside. It’s a reasonable ask for the Patriots to get back to 10 wins in 2023. They won eight games in 2022 with the ugliest offense since the Theodore Roosevelt administration.
As long as Bill Belichick can still slap around inferior coaches and keep games close, the Patriots’ 2023 schedule is easier than you think. Here are the 10 most winnable games…
10. At Cowboys, Week 4
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It’s Mike McCarthy. And yes, the Cowboys did come into Foxboro and beat the Patriots two years ago. But the Pats’ defense is better now and Belichick should close the gap on the opposing coach. You can’t rule out the Pats stealing a road win in Dallas just by being the better-prepared, more disciplined team.
9. At Giants, Week 12
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Belichick against a former assistant is certainly a dangerous bet. But just like the Patriots have slipped into “underrated” territory, the Giants will inevitably be one of the league’s more overrated teams heading into 2023. This should be a close one, and a very doable game for Belichick and Mac Jones against Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones.
8. At Raiders, Week 6
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The Patriots lost in Las Vegas last year in the most surreal, heartbreaking way imaginable. It was already a winnable contest, and they almost pulled it off despite a bad game for Mac Jones and the offense.
As long as a Pats receiver doesn’t lateral the ball to the other team on the last play of the game, the Patriots should have a chance to win against a Raiders team that was unimpressive in year 1 under Josh McDaniels.
7. Chargers at home, Week 13
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The Patriots beat the Chargers in 2021, mainly on the strength of their defense and special teams. If the Pats are improved in those areas, on top of looking closer to the 2021 offense, the Chargers are beatable as long as it’s Brandon Staley coaching on the other sideline. Especially in Foxboro, in December.
6. Jets at home, Week 18
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The biggest difference for the Patriots in 2023 is the Jets, who now no longer feel like a doormat with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. We’ll see how a 39-year-old Rodgers looks in a whole new situation with mostly new teammates, but they should certainly be a tougher out than usual for Belichick.
That said, it’s fair to expect a split between these teams, with the Patriots winning their regular season finale at Gillette Stadium. And logically, speaking, if you think the Jets are better, then the Pats should be more desperate for a win in Week 18, right?
5. At Steelers, Week 14
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The Patriots grinded out a win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh in 2022, and that was one of Mac Jones’ more lackluster performances. Now the Steelers have Kenny Pickett at quarterback, and his first go against Belichick should not be an easy one.
Add in the fact this is a Thursday night game, and it’s at worst a coinflip for the Patriots. But their history suggests that they’re capable of taking care of business against this team in this kind of spot.
4. Dolphins at home, Week 2
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Speaking of overrated, I’m comfortable hammering the under on 9.5 wins for the Dolphins. They went 1-6 to close out the 2022 season, their quarterback is injury-prone and at best slightly above average, and their head coach doesn’t seem dialed in enough to sustain excellence over a full season, let alone multiple seasons.
The idea that the Dolphins are ahead of the Patriots by any significant measure is crazy. They’ll probably split, because Miami is a house of horrors for New England. But the Pats should take the home game.
3. Saints at home, Week 5
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The Patriots may have lost to the Saints at home two years ago, but that shouldn’t make this year’s contest any less winnable. Mac Jones is more experienced, Sean Payton is gone, and Derek Carr is now their projected quarterback.
This should frankly be a layup for Belichick and the Patriots. Maybe it’s closer than expected, like that 2021 game, but this should still be a win.
2. Commanders at home, Week 9
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The Commanders’ quarterbacks are Jacoby Brissett, Sam Howell, and Jake Fromm. They hit Foxboro in the hot spot of the Patriots’ schedule, the portion where they should be coming together and taking care of the games they should/need to win.
Even with an average offense, the Patriots should have little problems coming out of this game with a win. If they don’t, alarms will sound.
1. Colts in Germany, Week 10
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The Patriots clean up in this type of spot. They are 3-0 in international games, most recently a 33-8 win over the Raiders in Mexico City in 2017. And the Colts are projected to roll with first-round rookie Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
Belichick against a rookie quarterback, overseas, smells like a Patriots blowout.
Losses?
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But what about the rest of the schedule?! It’s only fair that, if we’re counting 10 games as possible “wins,” we should note the losses. Here’s where I would project the Patriots to lose this season…
Eagles at home, Week 1
At Jets, Week 3
Bills at home, Week 7
At Dolphins, Week 8
Chiefs at home, Week 15
At Broncos, Week 16
At Bills, Week 17And if they can steal a win in any of these, Belichick and Mac could be cookin’ with gas. Just hammer that over 7.5.
