New England Patriots

New England Patriots

New England Patriots

Nov 18, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New England Patriots safety Devin McCourty (32) celebrates with cornerback Jalen Mills (2) and safety Adrian Phillips (21) and cornerback Joejuan Williams (33) after an interception against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into their Week 15 matchup with the Colts, FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Patriots a 98 percent chance to make the playoffs. That’s the third-highest odds in the NFL and the highest of any AFC team.

With four weeks remaining, no team in the NFL has officially clinched a playoff spot yet (although the Jets, Texans, Jaguars, and Lions have officially been eliminated). Seven teams have a chance to do so this week, including the Patriots. While some teams (ex. Tampa, Green Bay) have simple ‘win and in’ scenarios, or even just needing one other game to go their way (Tennessee) the Patriots will need significant help.

According to NFLPlayoffScenarios.com there are 15 different ways the Patriots can clinch a playoff spot this weekend. However, the simplest way involves five separate outcomes.

Do any of the following combinations have a shot at happening? If they don’t, New England can clinch both a playoff spot and division championship (which comes with at least one guaranteed home playoff game) next week against Buffalo, regardless of what the outcomes are for both the Patriots and Bills this weekend. The Patriots and Titans are the only AFC teams that can clinch a spot this week.

  • Scenario 1

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss vs. NYJ
    • Broncos loss vs. CIN
    • Raiders loss vs. CLE
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Chiefs loss vs. LAC
    • Steelers loss vs. TEN
    • Vikings loss vs. CHI
    • Detroit loss vs. AZ
    • Falcons win vs. SF
  • Scenario 2

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos loss vs. CIN
    • Raiders tie vs. CLE
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
  • Scenario 3

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos loss vs. CIN
    • Browns loss vs. LV
    • Chargers loss vs. KC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
  • Scenario 4

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Raiders loss vs. CLE
    • Chargers loss vs. KC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
  • Scenario 5

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Raiders tie vs. CLE
    • Chargers loss vs. KC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Steelers loss/tie vs. TEN
  • Scenario 6

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Browns loss vs. Raiders
    • Chiefs loss vs. LAC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Steelers loss/tie vs. TEN
  • Scenario 7

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Browns loss vs. Raiders
    • Chiefs loss vs. LAC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Eagles win vs. WFT*
    • Cowboys win vs. NYG*
    • At least two wins between the Bears (vs. MIN)*, Cardinals (vs. DET)*, and Texans (vs. JAX)

     

    *If the NFC-only games seem out of place, they account for strength of schedule tiebreakers. 

  • Scenario 8

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Browns loss vs. Raiders
    • Chiefs loss vs. LAC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Non-losses with at least one win from the Eagles (vs. WFT) and Cowboys (vs. NYG)
    • Non-losses and at least two wins from the Bears (vs. MIN)*, Cardinals (vs. DET)*, and Texans (vs. JAX)
  • Scenario 9

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Browns loss vs. Raiders
    • Chiefs loss vs. LAC
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • At least one win from the Eagles (vs. WFT) or Cowboys (vs. NYG)
    • Non-losses with at least two wins from the Bears (vs. MIN)*, Cardinals (vs. DET)*, and Texans (vs. JAX)
  • Scenario 10

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos loss/tie vs. CIN
    • Browns loss vs. LV
    • Chargers loss vs. KC
    • Steelers loss vs. TEN
  • Scenario 11

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Broncos tie vs. CIN
    • Browns loss/tie vs. LV
    • Chargers loss vs. KC
    • Ravens loss/tie vs. GB
  • Scenario 12

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Bengals loss vs. DEN
    • Browns loss vs. LV
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Steelers loss/tie vs TEN
  • Scenario 13

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Bengals loss vs. DEN
    • Browns loss vs. LV
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Chiefs loss vs. LAC
  • Scenario 14

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins loss/tie vs. NYJ
    • Bengals loss vs. DEN
    • Browns loss vs. LV
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Chargers loss vs. KC
  • Scenario 15

    • Patriots win vs. IND
    • Dolphins tie vs. NYJ
    • Bengals loss vs. DEN
    • Browns loss vs. LV
    • Ravens loss vs. GB
    • Chiefs/Chargers tie
    • Vikings loss vs. CHI
    • Jaguars loss vs. HOU
    • Lions loss vs. AZ
    • Eagles win vs. WFT
    • Cowboys win vs. NYG
  • Games to watch

    In total, 12 of the 16 games taking place in Week 15 could impact a potential clinching scenario for the Patriots. The only unrelated games are Saints vs. Buccaneers, Falcons vs. 49ers, Seahawks vs. Rams, and somehow Bills vs. Panthers.

Get The 98.5 The Sports Hub Newsletter Delivered To Your Inbox

Stay up to date with the latest Boston sports news and analysis, local events, exclusive contests, and more.

*
By clicking "Subscribe" I agree to the website's terms of Service and Privacy Policy. I understand I can unsubscribe at any time.