Milliken: Jarren Duran vs. Wilyer Abreu? The Red Sox outfield of the future

Development of the young core has been arguably the biggest focus of the 2024 Red Sox, with Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu at the forefront on the position player side of things. Rather quickly, the organization has developed a surplus of young outfielders, ranging from Ceddanne Rafaela, who recently signed an 8-year, $50 MM extension, to Roman Anthony, who is regarded as a consensus top 30 prospect in baseball. Figuring out how all these pieces fit is going to be a crucial part to forming the next contender in Boston.

It’s fair to wonder if Craig Breslow and company envisioned Duran taking another significant step forward after last year’s breakout. He’s continued to look like an above-average bat with a .273/.344/.439/.783 slash line and 118 OPS+ in 44 games, which is right in line with last season’s 121 OPS+. But defensively, he’s transformed his game and is looking like an elite center fielder thanks to the work he’s been putting in behind the scenes with Kyle Hudson.

For some fans, the nightmarish struggles Duran endured in center field back in 2022 never left their mind, but he did improve in 2023. He registered in the 57th percentile for Outs Above Average and finished with -6 Defensive Runs Saved. Nobody was ready to hand him a Gold Glove, but he showed himself to be capable of handling the position, even if the organization seemingly preferred him in left field.

You only have to go back to the Trevor Story injury in early April to see how hesitant the Red Sox were to take Ceddanne Rafaela out of center field on a daily basis. Duran was being viewed as so much of a downgrade at the position that they preferred David Hamilton at shortstop. It didn’t take long for Duran to absolutely crap on that line of thinking, with him ranking in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average and totaling 10 Defensive Runs Saved (6 in CF, 4 in LF).

• It almost makes it somewhat hard to envision Duran moving back to left field on a permanent basis. Maybe some of those clubs that showed interest in him over the offseason will circle back with more aggression. That could lead to some enticing packages as the Red Sox try to load up for their next competitive window.

  Not too many players offer the ability to be an impact leadoff hitter, a lock down center fielder, and the potential to steal 30 bases. Duran is currently 10th in all of baseball with 21 extra-base hits, 6th in bWAR overall, and 12th in stolen bases. This is all while playing every single game in 2024 and being asked to slow it down on certain days to stay healthy.

  On Wilyer Abreu’s side of things, he’s making a real push for American League Rookie of the Year. He’s batting a strong .260/.348/.455/.803 with 4 homers, 10 doubles, and a 123 OPS+. His 1.5 bWAR is the best mark in the American League, as Davis Schneider and Colten Cowser sit behind him at 1.1.

   

  

  Apr 30, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu (52) runs to third base after hitting a RBI triple against the San Francisco Giants during the fourth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

  Abreu has also been getting the typical rookie treatment from Alex Cora, which means he’s being protected from lefties. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers were both handled with the same kid gloves until it became impossible to keep them out of the lineup. It’s only a matter of time before Abreu earns that same trust, especially with the lineup desperate for production.

  While Duran gets a ton of love for his toolsy profile, Abreu is overlooked in that sense. He’s handled a very difficult right field at Fenway Park with ease, landing in the 81st percentile for Outs Above Average with 97th percentile Arm Strength. His impact has also been felt on the bases, where he’s stolen 6 bases and hasn’t been caught once.

• Both are under team-control for quite some time, with Duran scheduled to hit free agency in 2029. Abreu is a year behind him at 2030. There is an age-gap between the two with Duran being in the middle of his age-27 season and Abreu being in his age-25 season, so that could be an intriguing variable in trade talks.

  Anthony, who turned 20 earlier this week, has posted fine surface numbers at Double-A so far with elite exit velocities. He’s put together a solid line of .233/.338/.388/.725 with 3 homers and 9 doubles (110 wRC+). The biggest concern is cutting down his K% from 30.5%, which will be the key to a promotion to Worcester, but to his credit he draws his fair share of walks with a 13.9% BB%.

  While there’s an outside chance we see Anthony towards the end of 2024, it’s more likely he debuts early in 2025. Once that time comes, he’s going to require every day at-bats against righties. I expect him to get a majority of his time in the corners at that point, with Ian Cundall recently mentioning that his athleticism has taken a slight step back.

  You don’t want to get too far ahead with any type of prospect’s development, even if they’re a top talent, but it’s important to project forward. Maybe one of these assets could be flipped for an impact right-handed bat with team-control. Can’t rule out a young arm either, especially with Garrett Whitlock’s future looking somewhat murky right now.

• This isn’t me trying to ship Duran or Abreu out of Boston. Both guys are two of the more interesting players on the team right now. But if the Red Sox believe in Anthony as much as they have said at this point, and Rafaela is their answer in center for the next eight years, it puts the focus on those two guys.

  There’s always a chance the Red Sox end up shifting their vision on Rafaela if Duran can provide the defense the front office prefers. It’s been tough sledding for Rafaela offensively to start the year, with him hitting .197/.228/.355/.584. That’s good for an ugly 61 OPS+, which includes a concerning 40% Chase Rate with 5th percentile Average Exit Velocity.

  While Rafaela’s defensive metrics aren’t great right now, he’s been carrying a significant load on that side of the ball and has shown the freakish ability that led to an extension in the first place. I’ve always thought there was a pathway to him being a super utility type like Kike Hernandez or Chris Taylor, but you’d hope for more based on the deal he got. One of the consequences of his new contract is that he isn’t really a trade option anymore, which limits your options in this situation.

   

  

  BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 18: Ceddanne Rafaela #43 of the Boston Red Sox walks off of the field after striking out against the Cleveland Guardians during the fourth inning at Fenway Park on April 18, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)

  For those who want to add Masataka Yoshida to the conversation, I have a tough time doing that. It’s clear the front office doesn’t want him in the outfield in any capacity at this point, so he’s strictly a DH option in my eyes. Based on Breslow’s past comments about wanting flexibility when it comes to the DH spot, it doesn’t feel like Yoshida is long for Boston, even with 3 more years remaining on his deal.

  Tyler O’Neill has been mentioned as an extension candidate by some, but I have a hard time seeing that. The Red Sox have a surplus of cheaper options and O’Neill’s injury history is a walking red flag for any team looking to make a multi-year investment in him. He’ll be one of Breslow’s best trade pieces at the deadline.

  Figuring out how this outfield group will fit is just another storyline to follow over the coming months. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that baseball has a funny way of working itself out, whether it’s injuries or one guy falling off a cliff. But based on where the Red Sox are right now, it feels a lot easier to focus on the future than the present.