A look at the potential ‘ref angle’ in Patriots-Cowboys
In week 1 Shawn Smith was the official and who did not favor the home team and in the end the Eagles covered the spread and won the game. The officiating can make an impact as we’ve seen in a few games this season. Scott Novak is the lead official this week and Sharp football analysis has a breakdown of Novak and crew.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 21: Head coach Nick Sirianni of the Philadelphia Eagles speaks to referee Scott Novak #1 at Lincoln Financial Field on November 21, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Scott Novak’s Impact on Patriots at Cowboys
The Patriots play the Cowboys for the third time in four seasons on Sunday. This is one of the more intriguing games on the Week 4 slate. The Patriots have faced two of the top five teams in the NFL to start the season. The Cowboys have not faced anywhere near the level of competition in their contests.
Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective.
Penalty Tendencies:
- Despite improvement last season, the penalty issues that plagued the Cowboys in 2021 have resurfaced early into the 2023 season. Dallas is averaging 8.00 penalties per game in 2023, ranking them fifth overall in per-game average.
- Novak called 53.5% of his overall penalties on the home team in 2022. That has increased to 56% on the home team in Novak’s three games officiated this season.
- The Cowboys are ranked third overall in pre-snap penalties per game this season. The primary reasons for this are defensive offsides and false start infractions.
- Pre-snap penalties were a major issue for the Patriots in 2022. They were disorganized with Matt Patricia running the offense. While not perfect in 2023, there has been improvement in this area with Bill O’Brianrunning the offense. New England should continue to improve as the season progresses.
- The Patriots have struggled with offensive holding penalties this season, in part due to injuries on their line. The positive this week is Novak has not consistently called this penalty. Only once in four seasons has he ranked in the top half of the league in per-game average. This season, only three of the 17 referees have called fewer offensive holding penalties than Novak.
- Novak ranks third overall for false start penalties per game through three weeks of the NFL season. The Cowboys have struggled in this area more than the Patriots early in the 2023 season.
- Novak has ranked in the top three calling delay of game penalties in three of his four seasons, including the 2022 season.
The Bottom Line:
- Home teams with Novak were 7-9 on the moneyline and a league-worst 4-12 ATS (25%) in 2022. That has continued into this season with home teams 0-3 on the moneyline and 0-2-1 ATS.
- Home teams in Novak’s career are 25-40-1 on the moneyline and just 21-42-3 ATS (34%), the worst home team ATS record of any official since 2019, Novak’s first season as a head referee.
- Novak was 11-5 Under in 2022 with his games combining for an NFL-low 38.5 points. Novak is 2-1 Under this season, with the games averaging 42.5 points.
- Novak officiated the Cowboys versus Patriots in Week 12 of the 2019 season. That was a 13-9 win for the home team Patriots, who were a 5.5-point favorite.
The numbers we have outlined with Novak clearly point to a lower scoring game and the home team getting no favors whatsoever.
Add in the fact that AT&T Stadium holds no significant home-field advantage regardless of who the referee or opponent is, the only way we can look here is to take the underdog.
We have a RAngle.
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Will the Patriots dare the West Coast Cowboys to go deep?
The New England Patriots typically want to make opposing offenses beat them a certain way. There’s a wrench in that plan when it comes to Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.
The Patriots defense doesn’t always look the same way every week, the 2023 version of New England still wants to make the opponent earn every single yard and finish every single drive. Taking away big plays down the field has long been a staple.
But here’s the thing: the 2023 Cowboys are just fine with that.
Three weeks in under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and his West Coast-style system, the Cowboys have been willing and able to orchestrate long drives while also protecting the football. They lead the league in plays per drive at 7.7, with the fifth-lowest turnover rate (3.4 percent), according to Pro Football Reference.
FOXBOROUGH, MA: Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys looks to pass against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 17, 2021. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Prescott has thrown just one interception so far, and that’s the Cowboys’ only giveaway so far this season, tying them with four other teams (49ers, Chargers, Packers, Seahawks) for the fewest in the league. Predictably, with a stingy offense and dynamic defense, the Cowboys lead the league in turnover differential (plus-6). If you’re curious, the Patriots are tied for 20th at minus-2.
So, how do the Patriots slow down an offense that can string plays together without turning it over? Would the Patriots defense take the usual approach against an offense that actually wants to play the way they want them to play?
There’s still a path for the Pats defense to do their thing in a quest to slow Dallas down. It just might look a little different than what they’ve shown so far in 2023. But they may have the personnel to pull it off.
Oct. 17, 2021; Foxborough, MA: Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb catches a pass from Dak Prescott for a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the third quarter at Gillette Stadium. (Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports)
It’s fair to expect a much different-looking Cowboys offense when they take the field against the Patriots on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. Last time these teams met, less than two calendar years ago, they had themselves an instant classic big-play shootout.
In perhaps the biggest and best play of Mac Jones’ young career, the Patriots quarterback hit Kendrick Bourne in stride for a 75-yard touchdown with just 2:11 left in regulation, putting his team in position to win the game.
Unfortunately, the Pats defense couldn’t get one last stop, as Prescott hit All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb for a 24-yard pass on third-and-25, setting up a game-tying field goal. Prescott would later connect with Lamb for a game-winning 35-yard touchdown in overtime, completing what was technically a comeback win for Dallas.
Fast-forward to 2023, and the longest offensive touchdown of the Cowboys’ season so far is a 15-yard pass from Prescott to running back Rico Dowdle, and the pass was completed behind the line of scrimmage. So you can expect a different-looking Cowboys offense on Sunday.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 24: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys avoids a tackle from Marco Wilson #20 of the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at State Farm Stadium on September 24, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images)
With Schottenheimer coordinating the offense and McCarthy calling plays, the Cowboys have evolved into a unit that aims to pick you apart in the short-to-intermediate areas. To illustrate this, Prescott is 33rd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL in average intended air yards (IAY), with just 5.5 air yards per pass attempt, down from 8.3 in 2022 (via Next Gen Stats).
The system has also made better use of Lamb’s skills after the catch. Lamb ranks 70th (!) among wide receivers in average air yards per target (7.9 yards, down from 10.3 in 2022), but 10th in average YAC (6.7 yards, up from 4.8 in 2022).
“[Schottenheimer] does a great job of attacking defenses, coming from the whole [Kyle] Shanahan tree and so forth, West Coast with Shanahan,” Bill Belichick said Friday. “They run the ball a lot. [Tony] Pollard’s got a lot of carries. They’ve got a lot of explosive players, starting with Cooks and Lamb, but they’re well-balanced – formations, they do a good job with game planning, obviously the quarterback’s really good.
“You know, Mike [McCarthy] has a well-balanced offense and well-balanced team. That’s what’s hard, is it’s not just one thing. You’ve got to deal with a lot of different problems.”
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on from the sidelines in the first half of a game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sept. 24, 2023. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
As Bill Murray said in “Ghostbusters” when they encountered a free-roaming vaporous apparition in a library … “So what do we do?”
The Patriots hope it’s Prescott who’s seeing ghosts on Sunday. But whatever happens, it’s unlikely we see the Patriots defense deployed the same way it was against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. That game plan was tailored heavily toward eliminating big plays down the field, even more so than usual. The Patriots often gave a unique look of not one, not two, but three deep safeties.
That approach was largely successful, when it came to the big plays. But Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel were happy to attack the Patriots with a variety of weapons and engineer long drives, and they were even more successful in a big road win.
Prescott, McCarthy and the Cowboys actually want to move the ball this way. But that doesn’t mean the Patriots aren’t equipped to slow it down.
Oct 17, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz (86) makes the catch against New England Patriots defensive back Kyle Dugger (23) in overtime at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots still utilized three safeties against the Cowboys, because “Big Nickel” (three safeties, two cornerbacks) has often been their general grouping. But it stands to reason that the safeties could be used differently than they were against Miami.
It’s possible the Patriots go with just one deep safety and flood the box, like they might against a dynamic running game. Tackling is always important, but it’s extra-important against this offense. Expect guys like Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers to be active around the ball.
Sunday will also be a nice test for rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who came into the league with tackling as one of his question marks. He’s done pretty well so far, with 16 total tackles, tied for 14th among cornerbacks. His outstanding start earned him Defensive Rookie of the Month honors, the first for a Patriot since Chandler Jones in 2012.
Despite the need to minimize yards after the catch with sound tackling, the Cowboys could also use a wide variety of route combinations in the passing game that would stress the secondary from a pure coverage standpoint. But the likelihood is that most plays are going to develop within 10-15 yards of the line of scrimmage.
“[Lamb’s] a great receiver, definitely,” Gonzalez said Wednesday. “They’re all great receivers, like I’ve been touching on. They’re athletic. They make big plays. So, just excited for the matchup.”
FOXBOROUGH, MA: Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys scrambles with the ball against Matthew Judon of the New England Patriots in the first half at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 17, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
With all this in mind, the Patriots may actually dare the Cowboys to go deep. Question is, will McCarthy, Schottenheimer, and Prescott recognize that? Will they be prepared for that? Will they actually DO that?
The danger, here: we already know the Cowboys are capable of throwing the ball deep and burning teams down the field. But this year, they’ve been willing to be patient and complete longer drives with shorter plays. The Patriots are willing to evolve from week to week … are they?
This is the most fascinating matchup in the game. The Cowboys defense gets the headlines, for obvious reasons. Mac Jones will hog the headlines in New England (but perhaps for different reasons).
But from a pure football standpoint? The chess match between McCarthy’s offense and Belichick’s defense will be the feature presentation. It’s just a question of how the movie ends.
