Spring Training is around the corner, but first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow may not be done resetting the Boston Red Sox for the 2024 season, according to the latest rumor mill rumblings.
And despite a plethora of needs and considerable talent still available on the free agent market, these rumors have the Sox linked to the San Diego Padres as a potential trade partner, and with the talks centered on Boston’s outfield.
“[The Red Sox] have a deep stash of outfield prospects, which has teams asking about Jarren Duran,” MLB insider Jon Heyman wrote. “The Padres, seeking a lefty-hitting outfielder, are interested.”
But it’s not just Heyman who has linked the Padres to Duran.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – MAY 10: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates scoring on a RBI double by Raimel Tapia #17 in the seventh inning against the bat Truist Park on May 10, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
The 27-year-old Duran, meanwhile, is coming off a 2023 season that featured career-highs across the board, with a .295 average, an .828 OPS, eight home runs, and 40 RBIs. Duran also led the Red Sox in stolen bases, with 24, while his 34 doubles were tied with Rafael Devers for the second-most among all Boston batters.
Duran, a seventh-round draft choice of the club back in 2018, may very well be finally coming into his own after struggling at the plate in both 2021 and 2022, with a .215 average in ’21 and .221 in ’22.
And with Duran under team control through 2028 (the 2028 campaign will be his fourth and final arbitration year), it’s worth asking why the Red Sox would even consider moving Duran.
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 1: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox goes one way as the ball bounces out the other way during the third inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Fenway Park on June 1, 2023. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
It’s entirely possible that the Sox may view Duran’s 2023 season as a bit of a one-year wonder. Duran had brutal problems with strikeouts prior to the 2023 campaign, and it’s worth noting that he hit a stunning .030 higher than his expected batting average last season (per the expected batting average BaseballSavant gave Duran).
If the Red Sox have sustainability questions, that’s only fair.
The Red Sox may also view Duran’s defensive work as something that could be an issue for an outfield that already has its share of defensive question marks, and that replacing Duran with someone else will ultimately come out as a net gain when you factor in the defensive improvement in center.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – MAY 10: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox hits a RBI single in the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on May 10, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
But as noted by Heyman, it’s Boston’s ‘stash’ of outfield options that may ultimately make the Red Sox content with the idea of parting with Duran, even after a breakout year.
The Red Sox still have Masataka Yoshida on their roster despite some offseason trade rumors, they added Tyler O’Neill in the offseason (and have high hopes that O’Neill can return to form), and Boston’s 40-man roster also includes Rob Refsnyder, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela. There’s also the belief that the pipeline’s fast-riser, Roman Anthony, is not too far away from making the jump to the majors.
Should the Red Sox decide to move on from Duran, and more specifically through a trade with San Diego, it’ll be fascinating to see just what the Red Sox could fetch from the Padres. San Diego’s budget issues have been well-documented, and given that Duran is a cost-controlled asset for the foreseeable future, that’s something that Breslow & Co. would absolutely have to use to their advantage in trade talks.
