You may not believe this, but the Red Sox offseason is actually getting worse.
Before we get to the particulars, the latest Sox failure is right fielder Teoscar Hernandez, who has agreed to terms with – who else? – the Los Angeles Dodgers on a one-year, $23.5 million contract. Hernandez turned 31 in October, which means he will play the entirety of the 2024 season at that age. You may remember him primarily from his career with the Toronto Blue Jays, for whom he played from 2017-22 before the Jays traded him to the Seattle Mariners last offseason for right-hander Erik Swanson.
Against the Red Sox in 71 games during his time with the Jays, Hernandez batted .,312 with 22 home runs, 64 RBI and a .999 OPS, which is to say that he absolutely pulverized Boston pitching. Fourteen of those home runs came at Fenway Park, where Hernandez posted a .955 OPS.
The point? You can understand why the Sox wanted him. Hernandez would have been precisely the kind of bat that the Red Sox needed between left-handed hitters Rafael Devers and Triston Casas in the Boston lineup. Making matters worse is the fact that Hernandez will now play right field in Los Angeles, which had an opening at the position because the Dodgers intend to play Red Sox castoff Mookie Betts at second base.
Before we get to the particulars, the Hernandez negotiation marks the latest instance in which the Red Sox have been caught in the shrapnel between the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, who are in the midst of an arms race for both the National League and World Series championships. The Dodgers offseason acquisitions now include none other than Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hernandez, giving Los Angeles the kind of superteam – or, as Theo Epstein once called it, uberteam – that the Sox themselves once tried to construct.
If that sounds like the worst part of a bad weekend during this Red Sox offseason, it isn’t. As usual, the devil rests in the details.
The Red Sox’ offer to Hernandez was lacking
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 24: Teoscar Hernandez #37 of the Toronto Blue Jays looks on during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on August 24, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
According to Chris Cotillo of Mass Live (also a contributor to The Baseball Hour on The Sports Hub), the Red Sox’ final offer to Hernandez was a two-year, $28 million offer that obviously translates into an average of $14 million per season. While the Dodgers’ offer does include a reported $8.5 million in deferred money, the Red Sox’ porposal was still well below what Hernandez will ultimately earn over the two-year period. If and when Hernandez re-enters the market next offseason, he should be able to command another $15-$20 million (give or take), placing his earning over the same two-year span at something in the range of $35-$45 million. (Again, the Red Sox were at $28 million over the same two-year span.)
Meanwhile, Hernandez also gets to play for the Dodgers, who are obviously a better team. And did we mention the weather? (Aside: shouldn’t the Sox be offering more money to play for an inferior team?)
One final thing: Hernandez last season earned $14 million for the Mariners. The Sox’ offer, then, effectively wanted him to play for the same salary.
Chris Sale has signed an extension with the Braves that kinda makes it look like the Red Sox got used
BOSTON, MA – MAY 27: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox looks on as Tyler Flowers #25 of the Atlanta Braves rounds the bases after hitting a three-run home run in the second inning of a game at Fenway Park on May 27, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Look, we get it: you’re happy that Sale is gone. And that is quite understandable. In the same breath, the Braves did some clever accounting on the trade that made it far more interesting from Atlanta’s perspective than many would care to admit. The Braves obviously sent infielder (?) Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox in the deal and there is every chance Grissom will be a good player in Boston, but there was a time when the Sox managed their finances in such a way that now makes the Braves look like masters in accounting.
Over the weekend, news broke that Braves had signed Sale to a two-year, $38 million contract that supersedes the remaining $29 million Sale was due from Boston. If that seems silly, it isn’t. By giving Sale a new contract, the Braves reduced Sale’s luxury tax salary to $19 million, which gives them more money to add to their roster without incurring as much (if any) luxury tax. (This helps them in terms of keeping up with the mighty Dodgers.) And then there is this: though Sale’s luxury tax number is $19 million, the actual cash paid to him will be $16-$17 million. As part of the trade, the Red Sox are sending $17 million to the Braves, which means the Braves effectively added Sale for nothing in 2024. He is, to again borrow a term from Epstein, a “free” player for them this year.
Kenley Jansen looks to be on the way out
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 13: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Boston Red Sox high-fives manager Alex Cora after a game against the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park on August 13, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
During their negotiations with free agents, according to multiple reports, the Red Sox indicated to at least one free agent (Hernandez?) that they could not make their final offer until they cut additional money from their payroll. Most have interpreted this to mean that closer Kenley Jansen (who has one year remaining on a two-year, $32 million contract) is on the trade market. The Sox would then restructure their bullpen around Chris Martin, Garrett Whitlock and others, though the Sox would be weakening an area that currently seems to be a strength.
So what would the Sox get in return? Presumably, another young, controllable asset. (Yes, another trade with the longer term in mind.) One report suggested the Sox might want someone like Jack Leiter from the Texas Rangers. Leiter, the son of former major league Al Leiter, was the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft but has struggled badly in the minors, going a combined 5-16 with a 5.37 ERA at Double-A and Triple-A.
