Bankroll Notebook: Week 13 lines, Thursday Night Football & more
SPORTS BETTING UPDATE Regulators voted to accept MGM Springfield’s application for a retail sports book despite it being submitted late Massachusetts Gaming Commission begins publicly reviewing and discussing sports book…
SPORTS BETTING UPDATE
Regulators voted to accept MGM Springfield’s application for a retail sports book despite it being submitted late
Massachusetts Gaming Commission begins publicly reviewing and discussing sports book applications next week.
On Monday, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission will hold a public hearing on the 3 retail sports betting license applications:
- Encore Resort
- MGM Springfield
- Plainridge Park
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Buffalo Bills
BUFFALO, NEW YORK - JANUARY 15: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
- Josh Allen at night: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS
- On Thursdays: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS (only ATS loss this Thanksgiving)
- On TNF: 2-0 SU/ATS
- Bills road games are 6-0 to the under in 2022, going under the total by 9.3 PPG.
- Bills have lost both road games vs. AFC East this season (0-2 SU/ATS).
- Bills have beaten the Patriots in two consecutive games in Foxboro; last time Buffalo won three straight on the road in New England? 1992-1994.
- The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 47-27-3 (64%) against the second half spread. Scared to ride Buffalo after it leads at the half? Don’t. The Bills are 29-15-1 (66%) against the second half spread when leading at the half.
- Allen is tied for NFL lead in interceptions with 11. Allen was 25-1 to lead NFL in interceptions before the season.
- Bills haven’t punted in their last two games vs. Patriots.
New England Patriots
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - NOVEMBER 06: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots reacts before a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium on November 06, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images)
- Both teams were off playing on Thanksgiving/even rest.
- Belichick on Thursday with Patriots: 14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
- Belichick vs. Bills with Patriots: 36-9 SU, 26-17-2 ATS (including 4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS against Allen)
- Belichick is 37-11 SU, 40-7-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite the last 20 years in the regular season.
- Patriots allowed 33 pts vs. Vikings on Thanksgiving. Over the last 20 years, the Patriots are 39-9 SU, 36-12 ATS after allowing 30 pts or more in their previous games
- Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks with 13, he was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
Belichick as home underdog: 10-9 SU, 13-6 ATS with Patriots.
- Between 2000-02, BB was a home dog 10 times.
- Between 2003-13, BB was a home dog once (between 2003-2019: three times)
- Between 2020-22, BB has been a home dog six times.
Most Profitable QB ATS vs. Belichick Last 20 Years
- Eli Manning 5-0 ATS
- Geno Smith 4-0 ATS
- Tua Tagovailoa 4-0 ATS
- Josh Allen 5-2-1 ATS
Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
- Under 40: 35-12-1 ATS (74.5%)
- Under 42: 53-25-2 ATS (67%)
- Under 45: 93-55-5 ATS (63%)
- 45+: 110-87-5 ATS (55.8%)
- Belichick at night over the last 20 years: 63-30 SU, 50-40-3 ATS
- Since losing to the Bears at home, the Patriots have allowed six total points in their last two home games vs. the Jets and Colts.
Week 13 NFL Lines
Steph Chambers/Getty ImagesSEATTLE, WASHINGTON - NOVEMBER 27: Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders carries the ball for a touchdown in overtime to beat the Seattle Seahawks 40-34 at Lumen Field on November 27, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
| CLE (-7.0) @ HOU | |
| DEN (+8.0) @ BAL | |
| GB (-3.0) @ CHI | |
| JAX (-1.0) @ DET | |
| NYJ (+3.0) @ MIN | |
| PIT (+1.0) @ ATL | |
| TEN (+5.5) @ PHI | |
| WAS (-2.5) @ NYG | |
| MIA (+4.0) @ SF | |
| SEA (-8.0) @ LAR | |
| KC (-2.5) @ CIN | |
| LAC (-2.0) @ LV | |
| IND (+10.5) @ DAL | |
| NO (+3.5) @ TB |
Browns Next 6 Games
BEREA, OHIO - NOVEMBER 23: Deshaun Watson #4 of the Cleveland Browns throws a pass during a practice at CrossCountry Mortgage Campus on November 23, 2022 in Berea, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
| Over/Under | 3½ Wins |
Zach Wilson
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - NOVEMBER 06: Zach Wilson #2 of the New York Jets celebrates as he walks off the field after beating the Buffalo Bills 20-17 at MetLife Stadium on November 06, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Will Zach Wilson start again this season?
| Yes | +250 (5/2) |
| No | -400 (1/4) |
Will Zach Wilson start game one next season?
| Yes | +110 (11/10) |
| No | -150 (2/3) |
Next Head Coach Fired
| Nathaniel Hackett | 1/5 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | 5/1 |
| Lovie Smith | 5/1 |
| Dan Campbell | 16/1 |
| Josh McDaniels | 16/1 |
| Dennis Allen | 20/1 |
| Matt Lafleur | 50/1 |
