The 2023 NHL trade deadline is rapidly approaching and if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that Don Sweeney and the Bruins are pretty much in on everything one can be this time of year.
That certainly checks out given the Bruins’ status as both the best team in the National Hockey League and a team with ‘all in’ vibes in pursuit of one more Stanley Cup before Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci ride off into the sunset. They also have a top-two goal scorer in hockey currently without a contract for next season, and when that’s the case in February, you almost have no other choice than to live in the moment and hope for the best.
But while the Bruins are and have been linked to everything available this deadline, what they’re willing to give up remains a complete unknown. Sweeney has dropped hints that he’d be reluctant to strip away much from his NHL roster (it doesn’t take much to see why he feels that way), but that hasn’t stopped everybody from throwing out their ideas.
So let’s join the party and go over who and what should and shouldn’t be thrown out there this deadline, shall we?
(Spoiler: Like Sweeney, I’m not really keen on moving much of anything off this roster, and you’re not swaying me.)
Charlie Coyle
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 7: Ben Myers #59 of the Colorado Avalanche works against Charlie Coyle #13 of the Boston Bruins in the third period at Ball Arena on December 7, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
I gotta tell ‘ya, I don’t know why my good friend Mike F. on the 2-6 program is so enamored with the idea of trading Charlie Coyle. He’ll tell you it’s not that he wants to trade Coyle per se, but that you have to give something to get something. To which I’d say, “OK, then go get something else, because you shouldn’t trade Charlie Coyle.”
The rock of your third line, Coyle has been a matchup nightmare for opponents this season. Even if the points (29 points through 56 games) don’t show it. The way he can hold onto a puck and fend off bodies with one arm is some next level stuff. There’s also something to be said for the way that Jim Montgomery has added another layer to Coyle’s game.
With win in 53.4 percent of his faceoffs, Coyle is having a career year at the dot. His 53.4 percent success rate is actually 29th-best among all NHLers with at least 600 faceoffs this year. He’s also emerged as one of Boston’s top penalty-killing forward, with 2:34 of shorthanded time on ice per game (only the currently injured Tomas Nosek has averaged more among Boston forwards, at 2:39 per game). Coyle is also one of 67 NHL forwards to log at least 100 minutes of shorthanded time on ice this season, and among that group, Coyle ranks first in on-ice shots against per 60 (42.97), first in expected goals against per 60 (6.41), and eighth in high-danger scoring chances against per 60 (20.22). And this is while playing the fifth-most total shorthanded time on ice among that group of 67.
That’s for a B’s penalty kill that began Tuesday ranked first in the NHL, with an 86.5 percent success rate, by the way.
Why is that important? Well, for one, Tomas Nosek is on the shelf with a foot injury and there’s uncertainty regarding his status moving forward. And by having Coyle become your No. 1 penalty killing option, the wear-and-tear on Patrice Bergeron is limited. That’s arguably the most important thing between now and the end of the season. I’m not messing with that at all, especially with centers flying off the board for various reasons this deadline.
And while I have you here, enough with this ‘Coyle is overpaid!’ nonsense. He’s the 119th-highest paid forward in the NHL. 119th. Not even in the top 100. This salary cap isn’t the same salary cap from 2010.
Jake DeBrusk
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 02: Jake DeBrusk #74 of the Boston Bruins celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period in the 2023 Discover NHL Winter Classic at Fenway Park on January 02, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
The Bruins would be straight-up stupid to trade Jake DeBrusk. For the record, I don’t think it’s something they will or would entertain, but his name always seems to come up this time of year — whether it’s from fans or media — so allow me to say this isn’t something that Don Sweeney and the Bruins should entertain this deadline.
Moved up to the top line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand almost a calendar year ago now, DeBrusk has produced 34 goals and 58 points in 70 games since his promotion last season. His 34 goals are the second-most among all Bruins over that span (only David Pastrnak, with 54 goals, has scored more), and he’s second only to Pastrnak in even-strength goals (27 for DeBrusk, 37 for Pastrnak). And DeBrusk’s his 58 points are the sixth-most among all B’s skaters.
The Bruins have a legitimate top-line wing making $4 million through 2023-24. You don’t move that kind of value.
Trent Frederic
Jan 5, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Kings left wing Brendan Lemieux (48) and Boston Bruins center Trent Frederic (11) fight in the third period at Crypto.com Arena. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports)
The Bruins have waited almost seven years for this version of Trent Frederic to arrive and produce at this level. (Though I will always say that they didn’t do him any favors by telling everybody that his ceiling was that of a third-line center mere moments after drafting him.) Already on the board with career-highs in goals (13) and points (22), there’s little reason for the Bruins to move the pending restricted free agent this deadline, especially when he’s paced for a 20-goal season (and with no power-play time) and with Frederic emerging as a versatile bottom-six weapon as both a winger (both sides) and center in the wake of Tomas Nosek’s foot injury.
Taylor Hall
ELMONT, NEW YORK – JANUARY 18: Taylor Hall #71 of the Boston Bruins skates against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena on January 18, 2023 in Elmont, New York. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Another one that my pal Mike seems in a rush to trade and another one I’m not trading is Taylor Hall.
Listen, I get it. Hall was the No. 1 overall pick in 2010 and he won the Hart Trophy as the league’s MVP in 2018. There’s expectations that come with that and the $6 million salary. But the first overall selection was 13 years ago, and the Hart Trophy has been on his shelf for almost five years now. I also think we’re operating with an outdated belief on Hall as a player. When talking with Mike about why he’d trade Hall, he’s often cited that Hall has a ‘quit’ gene in him. I haven’t seen that in Boston and this belief has often referenced Hall’s days in Edmonton. He hasn’t worn that jersey since 2016.
In fact, I’d argue Hall has the complete opposite gene, as Hall has embraced being a roleplayer for this Bruins team because it simply makes the Bruins a better, deeper, harder-to-beat club. And man is it hard to argue with the results.
Diving into Hall’s cold spell since over the last month and change (Hall has three goals and eight points in 20 games since the start of the new calendar year), there’s context to be noted. Did you know that over that stretch, Hall has been on the ice for the fourth-most defensive-zone faceoffs among all Bruins skaters at five-on-five play? And his 40.76 offensive-zone faceoff percentage is the fourth-worst on the team among forwards with at least 200 minutes played. Extend that outside of Boston and Hall’s offensive-zone faceoff percentage ranks 240th out of 290 qualifying forwards.
In plain English, the Bruins have essentially utilized Hall in more of a checking role than ever before in his career.
Still, the 31-year-old Hall is paced for what would be a 23 goals and 51 points, and again, in a third-line role. This is assuming that Hall’s production remains on its current path and that his shooting luck doesn’t take a positive turn (and I’d argue that it already has shown signs of that in recent weeks).
Trading Hall to acquire a different winger or another defenseman feels a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul. Get into the playoffs with Taylor Hall on your third line and teams are going to have to pick their poison. It really is that simple. (See: The way the Lightning overwhelmed their opponents with ultra-deep forward groupings in 2020 and 2021.)
Jakub Lauko
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 16: Jakub Lauko #94 of the Boston Bruins looks on during the first period against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden on September 16, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
This one is intriguing to me. Jakub Lauko has done enough to warrant a longer NHL look, but it just hasn’t happened.
A left-shot forward, Lauko has recorded one goal and three points in 11 games with the Big B’s this season, and has drawn four penalties in under 100 minutes of five-on-five action this season. Down in Providence, Lauko has put forth his best pro season to date, with an AHL career-high nine goals in 32 games for the P-Bruins.
Now, the simplest explanation for Lauko’s move down to the minors despite his success in both the NHL and AHL is that he has minor-league options and sending him down over placing someone else on waivers is just the easier call.
But I found Lauko’s latest recall, which featured a four-game run with the team, a little interesting. Was this a trade showcase? Did someone want to get another look at him against NHL-quality opponents?
Lauko is also a pending restricted free agent at the end of the season, and though the Bruins won’t have to break the bank to keep him around (and they will have a definite need for affordable talent next season), Sweeney’s list of housekeeping is already a mile long. Left-shot forwards is also an organizational surplus.
Given the way he’s performed, it wouldn’t at all be a shock if NHL teams were curious about Lauko, be it in a bigger trade or as a ‘sweetener’ in a cap-clearing move from the Bruins.
Fabian Lysell
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 05: Fabian Lysell #21 of the Boston Bruins skates against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on October 05, 2022 in New York City. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Considered the organization’s top forward prospect, 2021 first-round pick Fabian Lysell is a player who would draw interest from just about any club in talks with Boston. Now, would the Bruins want to do that? I would imagine not. Their prospect pool is somewhat thin on the wings, and Lysell’s potential as a game-breaking talent may be too tantalizing to part with, especially if it’s for a rental. A younger player with term, however, and you have to think it’s entertained to some degree, no? Especially if and when the Bruins re-sign David Pastrnak and lock up a ‘RW’ spot for the next eight years.
Skating on North American pro ice for the first time in his career this season, the Swedish-born Lysell has recorded 11 goals and 27 points in 34 games for Ryan Mougenel’s P-Bruins squad.
Craig Smith
Mar 12, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins center Craig Smith (12) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during the first period at the TD Garden. (Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports)
This is a name to watch, I think. The Bruins already waived Craig Smith, who is the final year of a contract that comes with a $3.1 million cap hit (though it’s worth noting that the real money is actually $4.3 million and is all base salary), earlier this season and failed to get their ‘out’ that way. It’s also been a tough season for the veteran wing, who has scored just four goals and totaled 10 points through 42 games this season. (As I’ve said before, his lack of success this year has not been for a lack of trying. He still gives the Bruins everything he has in the tank every single time his number is called.)
Effort or not, that’s one expensive number for a team that is tight against the salary cap and for a player who doesn’t exactly fit in with what this team wants to do (the Bruins prioritize quality over quantity from an offensive standpoint under Montgomery, making a volume shooter like Smith a bit of a tougher fit).
Brandon Carlo
TORONTO, CANADA- FEBRUARY 1 : Brandon Carlo #25 of the Boston Bruins celebrates a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 1, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario. (Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
My advice to you: Stop expecting Brandon Carlo to be Scott Stevens. He’s never been that guy and he’ll never be that guy. If you ever expected that, you were reading the wrong scouting reports from the jump. But what Carlo has been in 2022-23 is a gigantic part of the Black and Gold’s league-best penalty kill.
One of 68 NHL defensemen to play at least 120 minutes of shorthanded action this year, Carlo has been on ice for the eighth-fewest expected goals against per 60 and eighth-fewest high-danger chances against per 60.
I have to imagine that any move made on the backend would be done with the idea to get another potential pairing partner for Carlo, not to simply remove Carlo from the equation.
Matt Grzelcyk
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 06: Matt Grzelcyk #48 of the Boston Bruins looks on during overtime of the preseason game against the Washington Capitals at TD Garden on October 06, 2021. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
OK, let’s get this over with because we’re going to get annoyed with one another. I can feel it in my blood and it’s already making me itchier than I anticipated. I hear you. Matt Grzelcyk has been targeted in the postseason, and it’s hurt the Bruins on a few occasions. It’s tough to win a championship with two smaller defensemen in your lineup, and the Bruins have two between the 5-foot-9 Grzelcyk and the 5-foot-11 Connor Clifton. (That ‘tough to win’ isn’t from just me, by the way. Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery outright said that earlier this season.) Grzelcyk may also run into trouble if asked to be a top-pairing defenseman for four rounds of postseason play.
I acknowledge all of this. OK, now hear me for a second here. That same Matt Grzelcyk you worry about derailing a Cup run is currently playing perhaps the best hockey of his entire NHL career. And he’s passed a few tests along the way.
In addition to a plus-minus (plus-36) that’s tied with Hampus Lindholm for tops in all of hockey, Grzelcyk is currently paced for what would be a career-high 30 points. He’s also had big games and held his own against playoff-caliber opponents such as the Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, Lightning, Stars, and Golden Knights.
But there’s one thing in particular about Grzelcyk’s season I’ve found rather interesting.
We all know that he fits with Charlie McAvoy. They’ve remained excellent in 2022-23, too, with an on-ice shot differential of plus-40 and a 24-9 scoring edge in almost 420 minutes of five-on-five action together this season. But when playing without McAvoy this season, Grzelcyk has still managed a positive shot differential (plus-28) and has been on the ice for a 23-8 scoring edge in over 404 minutes of five-on-five action. In essence, Grzelcyk has succeeded both with and without McAvoy this year. This was not the case last year, as Grzelcyk had a plus-20 goal differential when skating with McAvoy and just a plus-5 differential when separated from No. 73.
There’s enough data there to tell you that Grzelcyk can and has succeeded in a complementary role this year, and that he’s a considerably valuable piece of the operation. I think this is especially true with Grzelcyk reunited with Bruins assistant coach John Gruden, who coached Grzelcyk during his time with the U.S. national development program.
I will, of course, note that the Bruins’ interest in the trade market’s top left-shooting defensemen indicates that they themselves have their own concerns about Grzelcyk. But it really does feel like the Bruins are going to do everything they can to not strip away any key pieces of the NHL roster in a deadline move.
Like it or not, the numbers and usage of No. 48 screams that such a list includes Grzelcyk.
Mason Lohrei
MONTREAL, QC – MARCH 21: A detailed view of the Boston Bruins’ logo is seen during the second period against the Montreal Canadiens at Centre Bell on March 21, 2022 in Montreal, Canada. (Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
Boston’s top prospect on the backend, Mason Lohrei is currently skating in Columbus, where he’s put up two goals and 24 points in 32 games for Ohio State University. His 24 points rank 18th among all NCAA defensemen, and Lohrei is up to six goals and 53 points in 63 games with the Buckeyes since joining the program in 2021-22. A big defender at 6-foot-4, the 22-year-old Lohrei was unable to get on the ice due to an injury, but looked more ‘filled out’ when he was last in town with the Bruins during their annual development camp week last July.
If the Bruins were to make a move for someone like the 24-year-old Jakob Chychrun (a fellow left-shot defenseman and signed for two more years after this season), you’d have to think that Lohrei would enter the conversation in the sense that trading him for Chychrun would almost be an acceleration of their timeline at the position.
Mike Reilly
Mar 15, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Boston Bruins defenseman Mike Reilly (6) practices before the game against the Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center. (Mike Dinovo/USA TODAY Sports)
Currently buried in the minors because of his $3 million salary, Mike Reilly wants back in the NHL. And from all indications, the Bruins want to make that happen for him. But it’s been over three months since the Bruins waived Reilly down to the minors, and the 29-year-old is still stuck on the weekend shift for AHL Providence. The obvious problem for the Bruins when it come to moving Reilly is that his $3 million cap hit is on the books through next year, and moving contracts with term borders on impossible these days. The Bruins are going to have to sweeten the pot to ditch him.
Worth noting that Sweeney has often used his deadline dealings to ditch rougher contracts. He did it with Matt Beleskey’s deal, which was included in the Rick Nash deal, he did it again with David Backes in the Ondrej Kase trade, and he stapled John Moore’s contract to the package sent to the Ducks for Hampus Lindholm in 2022. All three of those trades involved first-round pick, and perhaps that’s Sweeney’s way of further rationalizing the trading of a first-round pick.
Jakub Zboril
Nov 26, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins defenseman Jakub Zboril (67) during the first period against the New York Rangers at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports)
The Bruins love their defensive depth. Love, love, love it. It’s something Don Sweeney has mentioned again and again, and even then, he’s still trying to add to it. The man is obsessed with it. But 2015 first-round pick and current No. 7 defenseman Jakub Zboril feels lost in no man’s land right now, and it’s hard to see how this is working for anybody.
In an attempted bounce-back year from last year’s ACL tear, the 26-year-old Zboril has suited up for just 14 games this year, and has appeared in just two games (and totaled 14:04 of time on ice) since Nov. 23. I mean, you’ve hit the point where you’d actually wonder if Zboril would be the best option in the event of an injury because he’s sat for so long.
That has to be tough on Zboril as he simply needs to play to get into any sort of rhythm, and with Zboril signed through next year at just over $1.1 million (and with five left-shot defensemen signed for next season as is), it’s fair to wonder if the idea of a ‘fresh start’ by way of a deadline throw-in has gained traction on either side.
Brandon Bussi
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 24: Boston Bruins fans hold a giant flag with the Boston Logo on it prior Game Six of the 2013 NHL Stanley Cup Final against the Chicago Blackhawks at TD Garden on June 24, 2013. (Elsa/Getty Images)
I wonder if the Bruins are getting calls about Brandon Bussi.
A late-season college free agent signing last year, Bussi has been electric in Providence, with an 18-4-4 record and .931 save percentage in 26 career AHL games. But barring an injury or something downright catastrophic, the 24-year-old is also blocked by the highly-effective NHL one-two of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark for the foreseeable future.
Goaltenders take time, we all know, but barring a move at the NHL level, Bussi looks like someone who will be stuck in Providence for at least another full season, setting him up to emerge as a full-time NHLer sometime around 26 or 27 years of age if all goes well. Does that work? I am 100 percent talking out of my ass right now, I admit, but that seems like an awfully long timeline for someone who has shown some serious promise in the minors.
Jeremy Swayman
Nov 29, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) in goal during the second period against the Tampa Bay Lightning at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports)
I think we have an addiction to wanting to ruin our own fun. Self-sabotage like you read about kind of stuff.
I mean, that’s honestly the only explanation as to why I keep seeing people talking about trading goaltender Jeremy Swayman this deadline.
Without wasting too much digital ink on this, the 24-year-old Swayman has been on fire since his disaster in Arizona, with an 8-1-3 record since that loss to the Coyotes, and with a .937 save percentage and 1.81 goals against average over that span. Both his save percentage and goals against average ranks second among the group of 49 goalies with at least 10 games played over that stretch of play.
Swayman is also going to play an absolutely gigantic role down the stretch as the Bruins will need Swayman to stay hot and keep Linus Ullmark healthy and fresh or become Boston’s go-to man in the net for the postseason should Ullmark’s take an unexpected nose dive down the stretch.
Is Swayman set up to get paid this offseason? Perhaps. It happened with Spencer Knight in Florida and the Stars’ Jake Oettinger. But if there’s one thing you should’ve learned from this season, it’s that the offseason’s problems are for the offseason. It’s all about the now, and right now, the B’s have the best tandem in hockey.
You. Do. Not. Touch. That.
2023 first-round pick
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 26: General Manager Don Sweeney of the Boston Bruins speaks during Media Day ahead of the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Final at TD Garden on May 26, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
If the Bruins are as ‘all in’ as we’re led to believe, then the odds of their 2023 first-round pick being in play seems high. And you know what? It should be. The Bruins are the best team in the NHL and if they have it their way, they’re going to be picking 32nd overall in this year’s draft. Almost any player selected with that pick is at least two years or so away from making the NHL, and that’s typically the minimum. Given the Bruins’ affinity for drafting NCAA-bound prospects, it might be even longer. That does little to help Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Krejci out.
I say this knowing full well that the Bruins have traded first-round picks in 2018 (the Rick Nash deal), 2020 (the Ondrej Kase trade), and 2022 (the Hampus Lindholm trade), and that constantly trading first-round picks isn’t exactly what you’d consider a sustainable model. But I’d argue that it’s a little too late for that (The Bronx had a song about futures that I find applicable here, though it’s not fit to print), and if there’s ever been a year that’s worth the Bruins moving a first-round pick, it’s this year and with the Bruins poised to challenge for an all-time wins record.
2023 third-round pick
Jul 8, 2022; Montreal, Quebec, CANADA; General view of the Boston Bruins table during the second round of the 2022 NHL Draft at the Bell Centre. (Eric Bolte/USA TODAY Sports)
This seems like a weird pick to throw in, I know, but I’d almost be shocked if this pick was not moved this deadline.
The Bruins are without a second-round pick in this year’s draft (or in 2024 for that matter) as a result of last year’s Lindholm trade. Don Sweeney has frequently moved a second-round pick for what you would consider ‘mid-tier’ deadline help, and I gotta feeling that a third-round pick could be a throw-in in a bigger deal, as part of a depth deal, or in a cost-cutting move by the Bruins to free up some cap space.
