If you follow me on Twitter/X (we’re shutting the club down at 50K), I would first like to say sorry. And if you follow me on Twitter/X and are subscribed to notifications for my posts in absolutely any fashion, not only do I owe you an apology, but you may also be entitled to financial compensation.
Odds are, you’ve come to my page at some point in the last few weeks hoping to find an update on the Bruins’ talks with their star goalie. Instead, you’ve instead been hit with musings on public bathroom and the impossibility that has become washing your hands in a sink there, album recommendations (the new Soft Play LP is that good though), and other, well, nonsense.
Now, in my defense, it’s been that kind of month for the Bruins in terms of updates since their July 1 splash, and all of that comes back to the ‘uncertainty’ regarding goaltender and reigning, defending, undisputed restricted free agent Jeremy Swayman.
It’s also important for me to convey to my close personal friend, Bruins general manager Don Sweeney, that he’s about to make me look like a fool. A dummy, a sucker, a dope! Messing around on a podcast with Boston.com’s Conor Ryan earlier this month, we were spit-balling dates for when we thought the deal between Swayman and the Bruins would get done, and I said Aug. 2. My thinking there was that the Bruins have, in recent history anyway, had their early-July flurry before they let things settle for a bit, and then wrap up their final business of the summer in early August or so. From pre-arbitration signings to the annual Patrice Bergeron discount deal, this was the time of year for loose ends. (Don, I cannot defend you like the weirdly angry people on the radio and online say I do if you let me down here.)
But barring something none of us see coming, that date is going to pass us by and the ‘stalemate’ between the sides will continue. Why we’re still in August and without a deal done is a subject that’s generated plenty of buzz, but here are some thoughts that have clanged around in my head and may (or may not) provide some additional context as we wait for some actually useful tweets and posts.
Time is still not of the essence…
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 17: Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins warms up before a game against the Florida Panthers in Game 6 of the Second Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the TD Garden on May 17, 2024. (Richard T Gagnon/Getty Images)
If you’ve asked me about Swayman and I’ve given you an answer, I’m not going to begrudge you for walking away saying, “Well, that was boring.” Because when I have been asked, my answer has been a simple (and boring) one: It’s early.
Saying August is early, both in summer terms and NHL terms, may seem insane, but it’s truth. And at the end of the day, I think that’s where things are right now. Both Swayman’s camp and the B’s front office know that they still have time to hold out and pound the table for what they view as their optimal deal. The season does not begin tomorrow, and there are other premier RFAs still without contracts for the 2024-25 season and beyond; Detroit’s Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, Carolina’s Seth Jarvis, and Seattle’s Matty Beniers all come to mind there.
That’s not a bad thing. Again, when you have time to plant your feet and play the odds that your ‘opponent’ across the table buckles (even if it’s just a little bit), you use it. If everybody else had signed their deal and the camps were opening this weekend, I’d feel a little uneasy, but it still wouldn’t be enough to make me think something was dramatically wrong.
Right now, everything is modus operandi in terms of comparing this to most other RFAs that are going to get paaaaid.
The Bruins are probably saying they want to pay Price X while Swayman’s camp is saying he’s worth Price Z. The truth is somewhere closer to Price Y, and as the window shrinks, the sides will inch closer and closer to Price Y. That’s just how these things tend to go, for better or worse.
What’s also worth noting here is that Swayman is thee final piece of offseason work for the Bruins. His situation is not holding up any of their other plans. They went out and made their big-money free-agent splash, they’ve handled every other internal free agent, and they’ve openly acknowledged that their greatest question mark on the roster will almost certainly have to be answered by an internal candidate… at least to begin the 2024-25 season.
They are a puzzle that is one piece away from completion, and they know what that piece is and where it’s going. So, again, there’s a benefit to that when it comes to timeline of getting that done. This isn’t like waiting for everybody else to sign before you could officially sign a Bergeron or Krejci to the lowest dollar amount possible to complete the picture.
At this point, the money is the money
Nov 2, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) skates off the ice during an intermission in a game against the Toronto Maple Leafs at the TD Garden. (Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports)
The money that Swayman’s going to make on his next deal has always been a massive part of this discussion, even before the B’s season officially came to an end in their second-round loss to the eventual Cup champion Panthers (and with Swayman the only reason it went six games in the first place). With the way Swayman performed in Boston’s first-round series win over the Maple Leafs, a massive payday was upgraded from a likelihood to an inevitability.
Beyond the bucket of cash itself, big-money deals always require a bit more effort. The Bruins did have a way around figuring out that money in the short term, of course, with arbitration being an option that was on the table. Technically, anyway. I say that because the Bruins made it known out of the gate that they were not interested in going to arbitration for the second year in a row. The Bruins straight-up admitted that it wasn’t looked it as a realistic option for the sides, and their actions confirmed as much, as the Bruins (and Swayman) opted to let an arbitration-related deadline pass them by.
The thinking for the Bruins was that going to arbitration once again would’ve been the quickest way to torch the relationship between themselves and their 25-year-old stud in goal. The other way, of course, would be deciding that they’re going to cheap out on Swayman after he answered the bell in a prove-it year in goal.
So, yeah, do you truly want to pay a goalie perhaps $8 million per season when that goalie has just one postseason run, a single-season high of just 44 games, and 132 NHL games? Maybe not. But when that goalie was the only reason you advanced beyond the first year and had downright disgusting playoff numbers that held atop the playoff leaderboard even after his team was eliminated in the second round, what other option do you really have? This is the bed the B’s made.
Something I’ve noted as potentially important throughout this process is that Swayman will be the first domino when it comes to the next wave of stud goaltenders getting paid. Swayman’s time is now, and new deals for the Stars’ Jake Oettinger and New York’s Igor Shesterkin are around the corner. Same for Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko (though at 28 he’s a bit on the older side in this group) and Florida’s Spencer Knight should his game rebound to the level it can. There’s been talk of Igor making over $10 million on his next deal, too. So, if you’re in Swayman’s camp, you’re probably looking at this essentially saying, “We can’t sign a deal that is embarrassingly under the new market standard by Year 3.”
And the other part is that the NHL salary cap is going to go through some more sizable increases over the next few years. League sources have told 98.5 The Sports Hub that they expect another $4 million increase next year, another one after that, and a “$100 million-plus cap in the not-too-distance future.” The NHL has been able to print money in its new markets (they believe the same will happen in Utah), their TV deals have done well, and the COVID debt is long gone. If there’s ever been a time for the NHL to make up some serious ground in the revenue game, it’s in the next few years. And when that happens, everybody makes more. That will play a factor in this next contract if it’s a long-term deal.
So, again, is it a lot of money? Yes. It’s gonna be. It’s almost certainly going to be the most expensive contract for a goalie in the team’s 100-year history, surpassing the 2013 contract signed by Tuukka Rask ($56 million over eight years).
But that’s the ultimate ‘it is what it is’ in all of this based on the events of the last calendar year, and the B’s knew that from the moment it went to arbitration in the first place.
That said, what’s true magic number dollar-wise?
Apr 4, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) looks on against the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period at PNC Arena. (James Guillory/USA TODAY Sports)
Now, let’s not confuse acceptance — or apathy with the situation the Bruins put themselves in here — with simply saying yes to anything put in front of you. If it were the latter, Swayman would’ve already signed by now, clearly. If I were a betting man, I’d say the Bruins love the idea of getting Swayman locked in at $7 million while Swayman’s camp would love to see an average annual million of $9 million per season. That’s ultimately why that ‘$8 million per year for eight years’ has always seemed like the ideal landing point for the sides. Boston’s current roster and cap situation, with 21 skaters, one goalie (Joonas Korpisalo at $3 million), and $8.6 million in projected cap space seemingly confirms as much, too. Is it that simple, or do you think there’s room to go south or north of that? I would say that the recent contract extension for Juuse Saros in Nashville seems like something that could be good news for the Bruins. Saros, who has led the league in games played in three straight seasons and finished in the top six for the Vezina Trophy in four straight seasons, kicked off his summer with an eight-year deal worth just under $62 million. That gives him a cap hit of $7.74 million per year. Saros is a more accomplished goaltender, though he’s older (29 years old), so that number should help the Bruins. But you also have someone such as Ilya Sorokin making $8.25 million on Long Island, so maybe this is yet another case of splitting the difference and landing on that aforementioned $8 million cap hit. Given some of the uncertainties in front of Swayman this season — particularly on the right side behind David Pastrnak in their top six — the Bruins would ultimately like to keep a decent chunk of change (relatively speaking) of that $8.6 million available for upgrades post Swayman signing. The Bruins have other ways of doing that, sure, from carrying a 20-skater roster opposed to a 21 or going with the cheaper Brandon Bussi over Korpisalo if ‘Goalie Bob’ cannot fix Korpisalo, but not beginning the year right up against the cap has to be of supreme interest to the Bruins after years and years of having to scour the CBA for some proverbial nickels and dimes in the couch cushions of Boston’s daily salary cap picture.
On the idea of ‘leverage’
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 30: Jeremy Swayman #1 of the Boston Bruins and Linus Ullmark #35 celebrate after the Bruins defeat the San Jose Sharks 3-0 at TD Garden on November 30, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
If there’s one thing that’s actually bothered me throughout this process, I must admit it’s this notion that the Bruins have ‘no leverage’ and that Swayman holds all the cards here. I mean, that’s just not true by any measure.
Let’s start with the very idea that Swayman is a restricted free agent. The very word ‘restricted’ limits one’s leverage, I would imagine. But especially so in the NHL Being an RFA in the NHL is not like being an RFA in the NBA. First of all, any external club that makes a move for an RFA in the NHL is risking a revenge offer sheet coming their way when the time comes. This is as certain as anything else, we’ve come to find out over the last two decades. It also requires more than just money, as an offer sheet requires draft pick compensation going to the other team. And as it stands right now, there’s only a handful of teams that have the draft capital to pull off a legitimate ‘can’t match that’ kind of offer sheet for Swayman.
“But the Bruins traded Linus Ullmark!”
Yeah, man, they were always going to. Forget what Sweeney said at break-up day. Barring Ullmark outright refusing to help complete a trade, everybody knew this was the final year of the tandem. The Bruins couldn’t get real value for Ullmark in 2023, and they were going to let their one-two punch in goal be the strength of their center-deficient 2023-24 squad and see where it could take ’em. But they always knew that adding a high-end center would have to come with a loss elsewhere, and moving a goalie always made the most sense there. It was an absolutely certainty once Swayman’s postseason pulled him ahead of what was previously a neck-and-neck race between the two.
But to further that point in terms and bring it back to the ‘leverage’ part of equation, the Bruins weren’t pulling the trigger on the Ullmark deal if they had even a smidge of doubt when it came to their ability to get Swayman signed.
The Bruins have the same amount of leverage now as they did on May 17. That’s good news for the Bruins, and ultimately bad news for Swayman and any other player currently stuck in RFA Hell where offer sheets only appear in video games.
When would, should concern set in?
Jan 11, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) warms up before a game against the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena. (Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports)
In case it hasn’t been made clear by now, count me as completely unconcerned with what’s gone on between the Bruins and Jeremy Swayman to this point. Nothing about this feels out of the ordinary when it comes to a big-money negotiation involving a player who will be part of your core — and in a starring role, they hope — for the next six years at least.
There’s also not a whiff of actual discontent between the sides. Swayman wants to be here (and he actually opted to stay in Boston this summer), and has been seen around the team facilities multiple times since the offseason began. This isn’t like Dougie Hamilton not answering Sweeney’s calls once he became an RFA. Everybody going, “Oh, I don’t know, something’s weird here” is 100 percent guessing or leading with the attention-seeking part of their brain (I get it, it’s summer).
If anything, this is probably closest to the summer 2017 negotiation between the Bruins and then-RFA David Pastrnak, which dragged on throughout the summer and didn’t end until the true first day of training camp (off-ice testing).
That feels like a fair ‘worry-free window’ to establish. But boy would it be nice to have something to talk about before then.
