I’m not quite sure that I’m gonna go ‘Full Sports Hub DraftKings ad’ and call what we just watched for over six months an 82-game preseason, but the good stuff is indeed here, as Saturday will come with Game 1 of the first-round series between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs at a sure-to-be rowdy TD Garden.
For the Bruins, it’s perhaps the best matchup possible from both a head-to-head standpoint (the B’s swept the season series) and a rivalry standpoint, as this will be the fourth playoff showdown between this sides since 2013, but just the first in five years.
More on the Bruins
– NHL announces full schedule for Bruins-Maple Leafs series
– B’s centers up for toughest challenge yet
– Bruins provide some injury updates for playoffs
“Well, offensively, they’re a gifted hockey club,” Bruins general manager Don Sweeney said of the Maple Leafs in his pre-series meeting with the media. “They present a lot of challenges down around the net front area, and we’re going to have to be really sharp there. We’re a pretty good team defensively when we stick to what our principles are, so I expect it to be a tight series overall.
Best Leafs yet
Oct 24, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) celebrates with Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) after scoring a goal against the Washington Capitals. (Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports)
Leading up to this series, I found much of the sentiment regarding the Bruins’ two most likely first-round opponents — the Maple Leafs and Lightning — to be rooted in some potentially outdated feelings on each club. I still think that’s the case to a degree, as many people have almost happily written off the Leafs while being petrified of the Lightning. Allow me to say that while some of the Leafs’ problems are still undeniable, and at some obviously key areas, this is still the absolute best version of the Leafs that the Bruins will have played in their four-chapter playoff saga since 2013.
One thing I always look at when assessing playoff teams is their five-on-five production. And the Leafs certainly had that this season, with a league-high 200 goals scored at five-on-five play. The three teams directly behind them in that stat were the Avalanche, Oilers, and Stars. When we’re talking offense, that’s elite company to be in. The Maple Leafs also held a plus-32 goal differential at five-on-five, giving them a goals-for percentage of 54.35 percent (seventh-best in the NHL). Toronto also held a plus-204 shot differential at five-on-five, giving them a shots-for percentage of 52.61 percentage, which was also the seventh-best mark in the NHL.
So much of the Maple Leafs’ success on that front obviously comes back to the superstar talent of Auston Matthews and his 69 goals during the regular season. Matthews continues to hit new heights, and has some downright freakish skill, and plays a game that makes him dangerous from all over the ice. (Matthews’ continued development as a two-way center has really gone under the radar, in my opinion.)
The Leafs also have William Nylander entering the playoffs after scoring a career-high 40 goals and 98 points during the regular season, while Mitch Marner is coming off what was his best postseason a year ago, with three goals and 14 points in 11 playoff games last spring.
The Leafs are no longer a youthful underdog that doesn’t fight for their chances or shies away from a challenge. Their core group has been through some wars, and they’re never truly out of a game from a scoring standpoint.
Power it up
Apr 16, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins center Pavel Zacha (18) is congratulated by center Danton Heinen (43) after scoring a goal during the third period against the Ottawa Senators at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports)
It may have felt like a meaningless goal in the moment, but count me as in those wondering if Pavel Zacha‘s power-play goal in Game 82 of the regular season helps launch this Boston power play back to life.
The Bruins entered their regular season finale mired in a 2-for-30 stretch on the man advantage, and it at times looked downright bad. But the Bruins got on the board in Game 82, and Jim Montgomery really liked how crisp his units were, even without the game-tying goal pumped home by the group.
And here’s where things get interesting for that power play.
Looking at the regular season as a whole, the Leafs penalty kill was among the worst in the league. In fact, their 76.9 percent success rate on the penalty kill was the 10th-worst among all NHL teams, and it’s the second-worst figure among all 2024 playoff clubs, with only the Islanders and their 32nd-ranked 71.5 percent mark on the PK finishing worse.
The Maple Leafs also come into the playoffs with their kill still struggling, with eight power-play goals allowed on their final 32 penalty kills of the season.
The Bruins absolutely feasted on that Maple Leaf kill during the regular season, too, with goals on three of their 10 power-play opportunities against Toronto during their four-game season series.
Part of me wonders if this is a bit like 2022 for the Bruins. Back then, the Bruins’ man advantage was absolutely lost late in the season, but they got on the board in one of their final regular-season contests, and then clicked at over 20 percent against a league-best Carolina penalty kill in a seven-game series.
The Bruins should get their looks against this Toronto kill.
All eyes in goal
Mar 4, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Bruins back-up goaltender Linus Ullmark (35) congratulates goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) after a win over the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. (John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports)
Without a doubt, the biggest question for the Bruins will come in goal. And more specifically, how they will deploy their goaltenders, with both Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark looking worthy of the cage in this series.
The Bruins have opted to keep their plans in goal close to the vest. They know what they’re going to do in goal, but they don’t feel like sharing that plan with the general public ahead of the series. And if you ask me, that’s because the Bruins do plan on rolling with a rotation out of the gate. The Bruins have gone with a strict rotation in goal since Feb. 21 in Edmonton, meaning that’s it been Swayman and Ullmark trading starts for 26 straight games. It would be absolutely insane to decide that now is the time to change things up and start riding one guy.
It’s also possible that Montgomery may have already tipped his hand on this front, with the second-year bench boss saying earlier this season that a playoff rotation would see the goalies trade starts for at least the first four games of a series before it became performance and results-based from there.
Now, if I were a betting man, I’d say that Swayman gets the call in net for Game 1. It would not only be his turn in the rotation if we go off Ullmark getting Game 82, but the 25-year-old Swayman has also been phenomenal against Toronto this season, with three wins and a .959 save percentage in three head-to-heads with the Leafs.
But no matter how the Bruins deploy their goaltenders in this series, they should have an advantage — and a sizable one at that — against the goaltenders at the other end.
In the Toronto goal, it will be Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll expected to get the calls for Toronto.
Samsonov is coming into the postseason with an .890 save percentage in 40 appearances this season, and though his April featured three wins in five outings, it also came with an unsightly .865 save percentage. Woll, meanwhile, posted 12 wins and a .907 save percentage in 25 games, but was not the same guy after returning from an ankle injury in February, with a 4-6-0 record and .890 save percentage in 10 games to close out the season. Woll’s .890 save percentage over that stretch was the 10th-worst figure among a group of 60 NHL goalies with at least 10 appearances over that span.
Pasta Party
Dec 2, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Joseph Woll (60) makes a save against Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak (88) in overtime at Scotiabank Arena. (Dan Hamilton/USA TODAY Sports)
If there’s one player you shouldn’t worry about in this series, it’s David Pastrnak.
Going back to when Montgomery called out his team as not being playoff ready ahead of their trip down to Florida, Pastrnak and his linemates (Pavel Zacha and Danton Heinen) finished their season on a high note, with a combined 10 goals and 30 points over the final 10 games of the regular season. Pastrnak had points in all but three of those games, and the Bruins went a combined 0-3-0 and scored a total of two goals in those three games.
Oh, and Pastrnak loves playing this club.
This season alone, Pastrnak tallied two goals and seven points in the four-game season series with the Maple Leafs, and only the Red Wings (eight points in four games) were victimized by No. 88 more than the Leafs. Expanding to that his career as a whole, Pastrnak has recorded 19 goals and 36 points in 28 games against the Leafs since 2014-15, which ranks third among all NHLers since then, trailing only Steven Stamkos (40 points) and Nikita Kucherov (43).
Pastrnak also has seven goals and 19 points in 14 career playoff games against the Leafs.
Bruins need secondary help
Mar 30, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Jake DeBrusk (74) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Washington Capitals in the shootout at Capital One Arena. (Hannah Foslien/USA TODAY Sports)
Over their last 10 games, the Bruins have 13 goals in 164 even-strength minutes with Pastrnak on the ice. But with Pastrnak off the ice over that same stretch of hockey, the Bruins have scored just seven goals in about 350 even-strength minutes. In other words, this is a series where the Bruins simply gotta get the other guys firing.
And this should be a series that allows the Bruins to make that happen.
If we go back to their four-game season series with Toronto, the Bruins got goals from eight different scorers in total, including multiple goals from Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie, Trent Frederic, and Jake DeBrusk.
Geekie is coming into the postseason with just one goal in his last 13 games, Frederic has scored just once in his last 17 outings, and DeBrusk finished with a 0-0-0 line in nine of his final 10 games of the regular season. Again, the Bruins gotta get these guy firing and finding the back of the net once again.
Now the good news here is that the Bruins should be able to get it going against this Toronto defense.
In addition to their aforementioned goaltending issues, the Leafs are currently projected to roll out a defense that features Ilya Lyubushkin and Simon Benoit in top-four roles, and have surrendered a ton of chances. For all the talk of the Bruins’ inability to create much of anything in their final two games of the regular season, it’s worth noting that the Leafs allowed 29 shots on goal in the second period of their Tuesday loss to the Panthers and on the way to allowing five straight unanswered goals. (Yes, you read that right, 29 shots in the second period.)
