NFL Saturday Divisional Picks & Podcast

The final 8 teams will battle it out for a chance to advance to championship weekend and have an opportunity to play in the Super Bowl. Super Wild Card Weekend had one game come down to the wire while the rest were blowouts.  Based off a few spreads this weekend, the same could be said for heavy favorites.  But this is why they play the games. Texans at Ravens -9.5 O/U 43.5    Baltimore’s defense allowed the fewest points this season. ranks No. 1 in scoring defense (16.5 points per game) and sixth in total defense (301.4 yards per game). The Ravens defense is elite and well-rested. These teams met earlier this year, which was a 25-9 Baltimore win. Baltimore's defense sacked rookie CJ Stroud five times in his NFL debut and held Houston out of the end zone in a 25-9 home victory. Stroud was 28-of-44 passing for 242 yards. Stroud was outstanding in the wild card round against Cleveland and hasn’t thrown an interception since November 11th (6 straight games. The weather could make an impact in this game. Dome teams that have played outdoors in sub-30 degree weather have struggled.  In 8 playoff games hose teams are 2-6 SU, losing by 10 PPG.  https://x.com/EvanHAbrams/status/1748716309179719984?s=20 Lamar Jackson has alot to prove this week.  He may be the NFL MVP but his playoff record is not impressive. His lone playoff victory in four starts was way back in the 2020. Jackson has historically struggled as a favorite, in the playoffs, at home. A spot he finds himself in this week. Per the Action Network Playoffs: 1-3 SU/ATS (4-0 to under) Home Favorite: 28-10 SU, 15-23 ATS. Of 220 QBs over the past 20 years, he is ranked 213th ATS as a home favorite. On 12+ days rest: 1-6 ATS Past 3 seasons: -3.5 or higher: 6-16 ATS -7.5 or higher: 1-8 ATS — worst mark of 32 QBs. His only cover? Week 1 this season at home against the Texans as a 9.5-point favorite.   [caption id="attachment_316523" align="alignnone" width="1024"] ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 14: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at AT&T Stadium on January 14, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)[/caption]     Packers at 49ers -9.5 O/U 50.5    Brandon LaFleur and the Packers (10-8) last played at San Francisco in September 2021 and scored a 30-28 win over the 49ers. The Niners returned the favor in the wild-card rematch four months later, leaving Lambeau Field with a 13-10 win courtesy of Robbie Gould's golden toe.Those were the Aaron Rodger days. It's now the Jordan Love era. Love has 21 touchdowns and one interception in his past nine games. Aaron Jones rushed for 118 yards and three touchdowns at Dallas, his fourth consecutive game with more than 110 rushing yards.If he is able to continue that trend against the 49ers front, they should be able to hang around.  The 49ers are in a great spot. The Eagles are out of the playoffs, they are fairly healthy and Brock Purdy will play most of his games at home where he is most successful.Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-25 SU and 15-17 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-17 SU and 9-10 ATS.   https://youtu.be/7-bDXEPe5fw?si=k4l_jjG9O_6px4Oc   Listen to the Over Under Podcast with Joe Murray and Dan Lifshatz