Pick It and Stick It: Felger and Mazz’s Picks for Week 11

OK, so we had a bad week - maybe our worst one yet. It was a brutal week, frankly, but we'll still match our record with anyone else who has picked every game in the league in this unpredictable NFL season. And as Patriots fans will tell you, we're only halfway there.

Ya, Mazz, the Pats are about to turn a cornah.

If that's true ... why can't we?

All picks aside, this has been one of the turbulent NFL seasons in recent memory. For the most part, a handful of teams have stood about all others, leaving everyone else to scramble in the muddle of the middle. The Packers lost to Lions but beat the Patriots, who hammered Detroit. Get the picture? Nothing has made sense. But such is life in the gambling world.

There are now eight weeks left in the NFL season, which means we're officially in the second half - the definition of crunch time. Every game basically counts double because there's less time to make up for any losses.

So here we go.

Last week: 5-9.

Season to date: 78-72-3.

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings.)

It feels like the Packers turned a corner last week and it feels like the Titans are one of the luckiest and most deceiving teams in football. Tennessee's wins so far are against Las Vegas, Washington, Denver, Houston and Indianapolis (twice). We're not sure there's a quality win in the bunch. Now the Titans travel to a seemingly awakened Green Bay team and we know how road teams often fare on Thursday night. We're unanimous on this one: Pick: Green Bay.

Murray likes the Pats. Felger likes the Jets. I'm of the potentially foolish belief that the Patriots fixed at least some of their offensive problems during the bye week, which is a risky assumption. The last time these teams played, the Jets defensive line dominated but Zach Wilson blew the game. The Pats have won the last 13 meetings and haven't lost to the Jets at home since 2008. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 35-7 against the Jets in the last 42 regular-season games and 17-2 in the last 19. Those numbers are absolutely, positively ridiculous. Pick: New England.

So here's the question: are the Bills really not that good or are they just sloppy, as evidenced by the photo above? Felger and I clearly think the latter and Buffalo should be an angry team this week, though there could be inclement weather in Buffalo. Murray likes the Browns. This is a huge, huge week for the Bills, whose credibility might depend on the outcome of this game. A loss seems highly unlikely, but the line is chunky. Cleveland got run over by Miami last week. Pick: Buffalo.

You want the poster team for the 2022 NFL? We give you the Indianapolis Colts, who looked like a bad high school team against the Patriots and then played their best game of the season under new head coach Jeff Saturday? Know what the Colts did more than anything else last week? They blocked. The Eagles have a good defensive front, so we'll get a much better read this week. Murray likes Philly coming off a loss. Felger and I like the Colts getting more than a touchdown at home. Fascinating and potentially revealing game. Pick: Indianapolis.

I just can't get enough of Brian Daboll, the human hamster who has turned around the Giants. And I'm even remotely trying to be a wise ass. You think Mac Jones would be a better quarterback if he had Daboll? I do. Felger likes the Lions, who their first road game under Dam Campbell. Murray and I like the Giants, who are now one game behind Philly in the NFC East. What a story. Pick: New York.

Carolina is 2-2 since Steve Wilks took over for Matt Ruhle, the lone loss coming at Cincinnati and the Joe Burrow air show. Baltimore has won three straight and smothered New Orleans on the road last week, but the spread is what makes this game hard. The Panthers' run defense has left something to be desired and Baltimore still has one of the best ground attacks in the league. Personally, I wouldn't touch this game under normal circumstances. But we have to. Felger likes the Ravens. Murray likes the Panthers. Baltimore hasn't scored in the 30s since Week 3, so I'll take points. Spark it up, Murray. Pick: Carolina.

Gotta love the Bears. In the last four games, they've 124 points and allowed 129. In the last Chicago games, the total points scored have been 78, 67 and 61. Personally, I'd bet the over because the Bears defense has been awful of late and is worse since the departure of Roquan Smith. Murray and Felger both like the Bears - as do I. Justin Fields is the most explosive player on either club. Pick: Chicago.

OK, so I've underestimated the Commanders, who are nothing if not respectable under Ron Rivera. The Texans obviously smell, but my obsession for Davis Mills is almost as great as my obsession for Brian Daboll. Murray and Felger both like the Commanders in this game, so my pick is moot. But I like the Texas with the points, maybe even to win outright. Pick: Washington.

See that photo above with Cooper Kupp laying on his back? That's the official end of the season the 2022 Los Angeles Rams, the reigning Super Bowl champions. Murray and I, at least agree on this, though Felger somehow believes the Rams will cover the spread despite a wretched offensive line. Not only do I like New Orleans to bounce back - I think the Saints are better. Spark it up again, Murray! Pick: New Orleans.

We're all in agreement here, so let's get to the point. Have you ever seen a starting quarterback cry after a loss in the middle of the regular season? Yeesh. Talk about a bad sign for the Raiders. Say what you will against the Broncos, but the Denver defense is good. The Raiders are soft and can't stop anybody. I know Las Vegas has played a bunch of close games, but this could be a blowout. Pick: Denver.

Good game, right? Dallas coming off a loss. Minnesota coming off a big win and returning home. And the Vikes (8-1) are still somehow disrespected. Know why? Because Kirk Cousins fell twice last week after taking the snap when an offensive lineman stepped on his foot. Twice. Lots of people like the Vikes. I think they're the luckiest team in football. And when is the panel ever unanimously against an 8-1 team? Pick: Dallas.

So the Steelers won last week. Big deal. And so the Steelers beat Cincy in Week 1. Great. All the signs here point to a Bengals revenge game, particularly coming off a bye. Could the Steelers keep it relatively competitive? Sure. But five points doesn't feel like a big number and Pittsburgh can't score. We all like the Bengals here. Pick: Cincinnati.

Until last week, the game between the Chiefs and the Chargers in Week 2 might have been one of the best games of the NFL season. Maybe it still is. And I'll say now what I said then - namely that the Chargers have given the Chiefs all they can handle over the last few years. I've taken the Chargers in this game, but I've been overruled by two meatheads who daily sit on my right and my left. Talk about being surrounded. Pick: Kansas City.

Know what I hate more than anything? Teams that don't play to their potential. The truth is that the Niners should be running away with the NFC West. Instead, they're actually behind the Seahawks. That said, Jimmy Garoppolo is now 37-17 as a starter in the regular season and 4-2 as a starter in the playoffs. Just felt like mentioning that stat as we haven't used it in a while. We're unanimous. Pick: San Francisco.