What would a D.K. Metcalf trade look like for the Patriots?

Less than a week out from the start of NFL free agency, one of the biggest stories has been the lack of wide receiver talent available on the market. That group got even thinner when Tee Higgins - the top player projected to be available - was franchise tagged by the Cincinnati Bengals.

Most of the other top players available at the position through outright free agency or via trade are either coming off of significant injuries (Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Hollywood Brown) or are on the older side and don't project as long-term answers (Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins). For a wide receiver-needy team like the Patriots, it looked to be a tough year to address the position.

However, news on Wednesday will re-set the top of the market at the position. According to multiple reports, star Seattle Seahawks receiver D.K. Metcalf has requested a trade from the team, and "the team has decided to explore it" according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

The circumstances around Metcalf's availability fall in line with other receivers who have requested trades under similar circumstances in recent years. The 28-year-old is entering the final year of his contract, and Rapoport noted on Wednesday that Metcalf "wants a new deal" - as is the case for many players entering a contract season.

Meanwhile, Seattle seems poised for at least a re-tooling if not a full rebuild having not won a playoff game since 2019. The team also parted ways with longtime receiver Tyler Lockett on Wednesday. Without a clear long-term answer at quarterback after 34-year-old Geno Smith and having just hired a new offensive coordinator, things are in place for the team to restock the offense.

Metcalf's trade request comes after what was a relatively down season. In 15 games he caught 66 passes for 992 yards and five touchdowns.

However, some of that may have been due to usage. Under first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb Metcalf's role in the offense changed. His 4.0 yards after catch per reception were the second-lowest of his career. He also had a career low in yards per route run at 1.81, while his 14.3 average yards per target were a career high. Late in the season, Grubb admitted he was "bothered" by Metcalf's involvement - or lack thereof - in his offense.

It wasn't just Metcalf that struggled in Grubb's system. Lockett's numbers fell off significantly as well. The Seahawks fired Grubb following the end of the 2024 season, after he led the league's 18th-ranked offense.

Whatever team trades for Metcalf, the hope should be that 2024 was an anomaly in a new offensive system and that he bounces back to the player he was before. They'll be looking to build their passing game around him, as a player that will dictate defensive coverages.

That's exactly the kind of receiver the Patriots have been chasing for the past few years. Last year it was Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk, and this year the Patriots reportedly "planned to pursue" Higgins before he was franchise tagged with The Boston Herald sharing that a source relayed to them "everyone in the league knows (the Patriots) want Tee."

In that report the Herald also noted that the Patriots had "kicked the tires" on a potential Metcalf trade. That report now takes on new context with Metcalf himself requesting a trade.

What would it take to get that deal done? Last year's attempted Aiyuk trade isn't a bad place to start. The Patriots were reportedly set to acquire Aiyuk for a second-round pick, a Day 3 pick, and Kendrick Bourne. Last year, Diggs - needing a new contract - was also dealt for a package highlighted by a second-round pick.

Could Metcalf's market go up from there? Other receivers were dealt in packages involving late first-round picks in recent years such as Hollywood Brown (1st-3rd round pick swap), A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams.

There was one reported deal along those lines from Friday, before Metcalf's trade request was official. Seahawks insider Corbin Smith mentioned the Packers as a logical landing spot, noting a trade "would have to be structured" for the Seahawks to get the Packers' 23rd overall pick, as well as one of the Packers' young receivers - Romeo Doubs or Dontayvion Wicks. This lines up with Dianna Russini's report on Thursday morning that the Seahawks are looking for a 1st- and 3rd-round picks in return for Metcalf.

Of course, that's not an offer the Patriots can match apples for apples right now. The value of the fourth overall pick is immensely different than a pick in the late teens or early 20s, and the Patriots may not want to put it on the table outright. The team also doesn't have the depth of young talent the Packers or another team might have available to move.

That's how things stand right now, but there are ways the Patriots can maneuver to put an offer that is both realistic and competitive with the Packers (or any similar offers) on the table.

The first and more simple option would be moving up from their second round pick - 38th overall - ahead of the draft. Minnesota tried something like this last year, trading its second-round pick (42nd overall), a future second, and Day 3 pick to get up to 23rd. At the time the belief was the Vikings were attempting to move further up to draft a quarterback. That didn't work out, but the strategy might work better if applied to a veteran player rather than a second trade-up - especially one for a QB.

Whether it's trading their second round pick this year and one next year, or choosing not to dip into next year's picks and doing a second and a third (69th overall) this year, the Patriots could reasonably get just above the Packers' 23rd overall pick in the draft order based on trade value charts and deals made in prior years in the same range. That would give them the first chip they need.

Then, there's the matter of matching the return of a young receiver the Packers can put on the table. Unless the Seahawks feel strongly about Pop Douglas, the Patriots seemingly don't have an equivalent player on the roster at that position.

But, what about another position? As mentioned above, the Seahawks don't have any long-term options at the quarterback position right now, even just based on potential. Could a young quarterback with some upside - Joe Milton - work as a replacement for a young receiver? The Patriots could also simply sweeten the offer with an extra Day 2 pick.

So, that's one way the Patriots can maneuver - by moving up in the draft order. That being said, they could try moving down as well.

The Patriots trying to move down in what is a lackluster draft already makes sense, especially if Travis Hunter won't be available with the fourth overall pick. In the context of a Metcalf trade though, if they're not comfortable dealing the fourth overall pick directly for the receiver they could move down to a spot where they are comfortable dealing that top pick, and then pocket whatever assets they pick up in such a trade.

In theory that path costs more in terms of immediate draft capital, because the Patriots would be giving up a first-round pick outright. Still, in moving down they might end up with a higher first-round pick than moving up, and not have to give up some of the secondary chips that would come with the other trade.

A third path could be trading directly with the Seahawks in a pick-swap situation. What if the Patriots moved down from No. 4 to the Seahawks 18th pick, with other lesser assets (a Day 2 pick?) rounding the trade out? Seattle would walk away with a much higher draft selection than they'll likely get in any other trade scenario, while the Patriots get to stay in the first round while also adding their receiver.

This would come down to what would Seattle rather have - two first-round picks in the late-teens/high 20s, or one pick in the top five?

Keep in mind, that's all assuming Metcalf's market is a first-round pick. Anything less and the Patriots should easily be able to out-bid other teams with their scheduled picks towards the top of the second and third rounds.

Of course, for any of this to happen Metcalf would most likely have to be willing to sign an extension with the Patriots. Would Metcalf do that?

Metcalf was asked indirectly about potentially joining the Patriots back in January on the Casuals podcast with Katie Nolan. Asked specifically if he could ever see himself living in Massachusetts, Metcalf replied "no, it’s not a desirable place in my opinion," citing in a joking manner how long it took Nolan to say the name of the state. However, he then added "[the Patriots] are a great organization."

For one thing, the commute from Providence to Foxborough isn't that bad, and Rhode Island has one less syllable than Massachusetts. So, there's two ways to solve the problem.

In all seriousness though, Metcalf's comments are a factor but shouldn't be a be-all and end-all for the Patriots. Nobody is asking him to move to Massachusetts for life. The team simply needs to make it worth his while to do so for a short period of time. That's something they should be able to do, especially if his issue is more with the geographic location than the franchise itself.

Metcalf, like most pro athletes, will have his preferences when it comes to his next destination. But most of the time, it's the money that ends up winning out.

With a projected NFL-leading $127 million in cap space, the Patriots are in position to make Metcalf an offer he can't refuse. If they believe he's the receiver they've been chasing for two-plus years now there's no reason not to, even if they have to more than just pass the next-closest offer to get him to move to a four-syllable state. Given the way wide receiver contracts have been trending Metcalf's next contract could very well surpass a $30 million AAV - and that's before factoring in the market shifting for expected extensions for Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati (Metcalf won't get more than them, but their contracts will raise the value of the rest of the players on the market).

At the NFL Combine last week, Eliot Wolf spoke about the importance of the Patriots being aggressive financially in the open market. While mainly talking about free agency, the same philosophy should apply here.

"We’re not going to be frivolous. We’re going to do what we think is best," Wolf said when asked about the team being willing to 'extend itself' to land free agents. "We have to do what’s necessary. So last year we didn’t do enough of what was necessary. This year, we have to do what’s necessary to improve the team.”

Head coach Mike Vrabel was also asked his philosophy on the team going above market value to land key players. "I like to shop like everybody else. When you go and there’s only one of a certain car, maybe you have to pay a little bit more for that one car because there’s only one of them," Vrabel explained. "When you start to get into a range where you feel like there’s an area where players are comparable and you like three or four players in a certain area for a certain role, you may not have to overspend. But it’s free agency. I think that everybody overspends sometimes in free agency.”

Vrabel also spoke about how rare it is to have a chance to add a top-flight receiver. "It’s hard. I mean, you've usually got to draft them," he said. "But then sometimes, based on circumstances, available for trade. I think that we’ll explore every opportunity that we can to add great players that we feel like are the right fit and that can help us. There’s only so many options in free agency and a trade, and the draft. So we’ll explore all three of those."

The other road block for the Patriots in recent years has been the quarterback situation. Last year, Aiyuk reportedly cited uncertainty at the position as a main reason he turned down a $32 million a year offer from the Patriots. That issue should be solved now, after Drake Maye's promising rookie year. According to Andrew Callahan of The Boston Herald, many around the league view Maye's ceiling as being a "top five" quarterback in the league.

That's something else Wolf talked about last week. When asked how much of the team's recruiting pitch will be built around Maye, Wolf said "offensively, quite a bit...Drake showed tremendous improvement throughout the season. There’s still plenty of room to grow, but having that guy in place is paramount to our success. We’re really excited about the future that he can bring to our organization.”

Will Metcalf be a part of that future with the Patriots? If the organization thinks he's the level of receiver they've been chasing, it wouldn't be surprising if they try to make that happen. Assuming they can get a trade with the Seahawks done they'd have the motivation to put the best contract offer in front of him, and the resources to do so as well. Whatever happens after that will be up to Metcalf, but on paper they can put themselves in position to make it hard for him to say no.