Past, present, and future: 4 thoughts on the Matthew Judon trade
A closer look at the before and after of the Matthew Judon trade, as it relates to the Patriots.
On Wednesday night, the Matthew Judon era in New England came to an end. The Patriots dealt Judon to the Atlanta Falcons for a third-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Matthew Judon situation was something the Patriots’ new front office was going to need to deal with going back to when they took over their new roles at the start of the offseason. It hit an apex earlier in training camp, and now ends with Judon starting a new chapter with a new team on his 32nd birthday.
Prior to the trade Judon was arguably the Patriots’ best player. He’d also been as much of a ‘face of the franchise’ as any player in the post-Tom Brady era.
So naturally, the team trading him has left fans with many questions. For now, let’s look at four big overarching topics coming away from this trade – how did things get to this point, was it the right move to trade him, did the Patriots get enough, and where does the team go from here?
How did things get to this point?
This whole back-and-forth between the Patriots and Matthew Judon really started a year ago, during last season’s training camp. Judon began camp as a hold-in, looking for a raise on the third year of a four-year free agent deal he initially signed as part of the Patriots’ big 2021 free agent class. In order to get Judon back on the field the Patriots gave him the raise, by moving money up from the 2024 season to 2023.
That proved to be a stop-gap for last season, but once the season ended and it was time to look ahead to 2024 Judon was once more underpaid compared to his peers around the NFL. In total, he was due a $6.5 million base salary for 2024, leaving him outside the top 30 highest-paid edge rushers in the NFL as he entered a contract season.
Early on, it was apparent that something was going to have to be done about Judon’s contract (we covered that topic back in February when he discussed his contract situation with Felger & Mazz). However, this time there was no future years to borrow money from.
As the Patriots started doling out contract extensions and deals to keep internal free agents with the team, it seemed like Judon should be on the list. Yes there were reasons to be hesitant to pay him, but the team did extend or bring back other players coming off of season-ending injuries (ex. Rhamondre Stevenson, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry) as well as players who are on the older side (ex. David Andrews, Davon Godchaux). As the arguably the best player on the roster and a vocal leader in the locker room, Judon always seemed like the next most logical extension candidate every time one of the other deals got done.
Yet as the offseason went on, the new deal for Judon never came. There were reportedly offers, but none amounted to what the two sides were looking for. We don’t know exactly what the impasse was – disagreement on the dollar amount, Judon wanting more tenure, etc. – but the two sides reportedly remained apart as camp began.
Once the team returned to the building, things hit a boiling point. Judon had a very public exit from an early training camp process, and ended up missing multiple days of camp. He talked to the media twice, both times putting the onus on the team to get a deal done.
It hurts both sides that a resolution wasn’t reached earlier. For the Patriots, getting Judon back in on a new contract obviously would have helped the team remain competitive as they try to build a new culture in 2024, and kept a valuable leader in the locker room.
At the same time, recognizing earlier that deal was never going to happen would have allowed them to plan better for losing their top pass rusher, and potentially could have given them more premium assets in a crucial draft (could that extra third-round pick have been the difference in trading up into the back of the first-round like the team was reportedly trying to do, for a tackle or wide receiver?).
Meanwhile, Judon now has to pick up a new program late in the offseason process as he tries to get a new contract worked out with the Falcons. This comes after he told reporters during training camp he didn’t want to be traded and hoped to retire a Patriot.
Was a trade the right move?
As mentioned above, retaining Matthew Judon probably would have been the best move for the Patriots overall, looking at things from where they started in February. That being said, a lot changed between then and now. Given where things stood between both sides, a trade was likely the right call at this point.
Although he returned to practice and was one of the best players on the field participating with tremendous energy over the last week, it never made sense that Judon would suddenly play on the $6.5 million dollars in 2024. His contract was going to loom over the team until it was settled, one way or the other. Plus, would his dissatisfaction with his contract impact his standing as a locker room leader? The walk-out at the practice early in camp didn’t help in this regard.
It became clear as camp went on, based on reports, that the two sides weren’t close on a deal. Could the Patriots have waited it out to see if he’d acquiesce in the negotiations? Sure, but what would that look like in the meantime. Also, there’s no guarantee he would ever simply change his mind (if anything, that outcome was unlikely).
That would leave them in a similar spot to where they were with cornerback Stephon Gilmore in 2021. After using the same contract mechanic to move money up for Gilmore in 2020, who like Judon finished that season injured.
Gilmore reportedly wanted a new deal during camp in 2021. No deal was done, he opened the season on PUP, and didn’t appear in a game.
In the end the Patriots ended up moving him at the last possible point for a much lesser asset, trading him to the Carolina Panthers for a sixth-round pick ahead of the trade deadline that October. Losing Judon with that little return would have been among the worst-case scenarios for the Patriots, which they avoided with this deal picking up a premium asset – a top-100 draft pick – instead. In a lot of ways, this was a classic example of the Bill Belichick ‘moving on from a player a year too early rather than a year too late’ strategy.
Did the Patriots get enough for Matthew Judon?
O.K., so it was time for the Patriots to move on from Matthew Judon. Did they get the right return?
Based on similar trades in the past, the answer is probably yes. A third-round pick in the upcoming draft is about right for a player in Judon’s situation.
The most comparable and relevant trade to the Judon situation came two years ago, prior to the 2022 season. That March the Chicago Bears traded Khalil Mack to the Los Angeles Chargers. The full deal was Mack and a future sixth-round pick for that year’s second-round pick.
Looking at Judon’s production over the past three years compared to Mack’s three years before the trade, he either matches or exceeds Mack in multiple key categories. Mack was similar in age then to where Judon is now (both trades happened after the players’ eight NFL season), and both were coming off of serious season-ending injuries (Mack’s 2021 season was limited to just seven games due to a foot injury that required season-ending surgery).
Now, there are differences between the situations too. For one, Mack was traded in March. That’s during the primary teambuilding portion of the NFL calendar, when teams are generally willing to give up more in trades. Mack also didn’t need a new contract (although he did revise his deal a bit with LA), and was signed through 2024 at the time of the trade. Judon’s deal was based on a contract dispute, meaning the Falcons signing him to an extension was probably a part of the trade plans.
A lot of NFL trades are based on using prior deals as precedent. Applying that logic here, and factoring in the time of year the trade was made, it looks like the Patriots got the right return. Whether or not they should have traded Judon is a separate discussion, but they did well with the trade itself.
Now, they’ve picked up a valuable asset for next year, especially viewing the pick as a potential trade chip. That could be to move up in the draft, or as an extra asset when competing against another team in a trade for a player (read: wide receiver).
What do the Patriots do now?
In the long term, edge rusher now becomes a primary need for the Patriots via the draft or free agency. Next year’s edge rusher class in the draft is bolstered by the fact that both Ohio State edge rushers – J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer – returned to school despite being projected as top-100 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Other top projected Day 2 edge rushers include Yahya Black from Iowa and Patrick Payton from Florida State. Meanwhile, the free agency class is highlighted by Chase Young and Josh Sweat, assuming they don’t sign extensions and hit the open market.
Meanwhile in the short term, the Patriots will need to find an effective primary pass rusher on their current roster. The favorite for that job, and the player likely to see the biggest increase in reps without Matthew Judon on the team, should be Joshua Uche. Uche has flashed the highest pass rush ceiling of any of the current players on the Patriots’ roster.
Back in the spring Uche signed a one-year ‘prove it’ contract seeming to bet on himself and improve his value heading into free agency this year. If he wants to prove he should be paid like a top pass rusher, he’ll certainly have his chances this year.
Keion White is another young player who should get more opportunities following Judon’s departure. His play strength and athleticism should make him a feature on early downs. Then there’s Oshane Ximines, who was a rotational pass rusher during his time with the New York Giants, and has had a solid training camp with the Patriots this year.
Ultimately it will be a real challenge for the Patriots to replace Judon’s production outright. To get close, they’ll likely need to handle it by committee (something they’re already trying to do to replace another key defensive player, Christian Barmore). There will be more opportunities for some younger players now, but no matter what way you look at it Judon’s departure leaves a massive hole in the unit.
