We’re now just two weeks away (to the day) from the start of Patriots training camp. As the dog days of summer wind down, the speculation is heating up.

It’s rare to have real storylines at this time of year, but there are a handful of (figurative) threads to follow right now when it comes to the Patriots. With a couple of potential game-changing players still in free agency, and the up-in-the-air status of some players already on the team, projections for this current Patriots roster can change based on major personnel moves that could still be on the way – which again is something very rare for July.

READ MORE:

— DeAndre Hopkins is ready to play the waiting game
— What DeVante Parker’s extension means for the Patriots’ salary cap situation
— A Patriots QB get-together

That seemed to be on the minds of many of you this week, submitting bigger-picture hypothetical questions for this week’s mailbag. Plus, some depth-chart related notes as well.

What is the potential for this team, as well as some specific players? We’ll get to that, as well as some new thoughts on the latest regarding the top late-stage free agents.

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O.K., let’s talk ‘ceiling.’ This is, in my mind, what happens if every singe ‘what if’ goes right for the Patriots. That means Tyquan Thornton hits his pre-draft potential, the depth at the tackle position works out, Christian Gonzalez is as-advertised, Josh Uche picks up where he left off last season, everybody stays healthy, and on and on and on. If, big if, they do all of that, this is a team that should win double-digit games. Is that enough to win the AFC East? Maybe, but they’re certainly a Wild Card team at least if every single box gets checked.

• If the pats do not get Hopkins or Cook. Would adding a player like Kenyan Drake be beneficial?

  — Andrew Caraway (@Caraway6) July 10, 2023

  Adding a player like Drake wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea (we highlighted him as a potential Patriots target in a recent post), but he wouldn’t replicate they’d boost from adding a coverage-dictating wide receiver like DeAndre Hopkins. The Patriots should be looking to add a veteran back because depth is everything at that position, and they have a relatively young group right now, but doing so wouldn’t make up for failing to land Hopkins.

• Hi Alex, which helps the Pats more this year: to have a motivated/in shape Trent Brown as their starting LT or to have Jack Jones on the field as their number 2 outside CB opposite Gonzo and allow Jonathan Jones to start in the slot?

  — ashley1992 (@ashley1992__) July 10, 2023

  Good question. As much as I think having Jack Jones on the field unlocks the full potential of the Patriots’ defense, getting a full quality 17 games out of Trent Brown would be a massive, massive development. Without Jones at corner the Patriots still have plenty of depth at the cornerback position, things would just look a little different for them alignment-wise. Meanwhile, the depth at tackle quickly drops off after Brown, with no clear replacement.

• What are the chances that Andrew Stueber steps up to earn a roster spot?

  — Kamal Hourani (@kamaleon33) July 10, 2023

  Stueber enters camp as a real unknown. The 2022 seventh-round pick suffered a torn hamstring last year, which is a severe injury. He’ll be working his way back from that after missing his entire rookie season from spring practices on. That’s a long way to go, but given the Patriots’ current depth at tackle they’re going to need to give every player at the position some real looks this summer, so he should have chances to impress the coaching staff.

• https://twitter.com/CoachKOBrien9/status/1678429012035620864?s=20

  I don’t think so, no. Even if Golladay returns to the player he was at his peak – and his last impactful season was four years ago now – he’d be comparable to DeVante Parker, who the Patriots just extended. It’d be tough to get both on the field, given the overlap in their skillsets. The team would be better off maximizing what Parker can do, especially after giving him a new contract.

• Whether or not the @Patriots sign @DeAndreHopkins, do you see a scenario where Douglas and/or Boutte make the 53-man? Which would you prefer? Could one or both be stashed safely on the practice squad for a year?

  — Nick Crampton (@NiickCrampton) July 10, 2023

  For Demario Douglas, I think there’s a pretty clear path to him making the 53-man roster, or at least contributing as a regularly-elevated player from the practice squad early on. As a ball-carrier, his skillset is very similar to Marcus Jones’. Having Douglas active would allow the Patriots to make the Marcus Jones offensive package from last year – one of their most efficient and effective offensive looks – a more regular part of their offense without stretching Jones too thin.

  As for Boutte, his path to the roster is a bit more complicated. He’d likely have to beat out Kendrick Bourne for a roster spot. That being said, first he needs to get healthy after not practicing for most of the spring. If he’s banged up, he could be a ‘redshirt’ Foxboro Flu candidate.

• 3 most overrated Patriots players heading to this year?

  — B. (@BaderThfc) July 10, 2023

  Let’s go with “overhyped” instead of “overrated” to add some context. In that regard I’d go with Ty Montgomery, Tyquan Thornton, and Josh Uche.

  Montgomery had a great spring, but that was the case last year as well. We all know he can play, but the question is can he stay healthy and be a regular contributor?

  Thornton is all hype at this point, and needs to show growth over his limited time last year to beat out Kendrick Bourne for the ‘Z’ role.

  Finally, Josh Uche is getting a lot of hype after picking up 11.5 sacks over the final 10 games, but it’s also important to remember he had four total sacks in his prior 26 games leading up to that. Football is certainly a ‘what have you done for me lately’ sport, and Uche checks that box, but he still needs to prove he can play with consistency as he enters his fourth NFL season – and a contract year.

• Which players do you think will have the biggest surprise and the biggest letdown?

  — red_team124 (@RedTeam124) July 10, 2023

  We just discussed the biggest ‘letdown’ players, so here is one player I think will break out on each side of the ball. On offense, I think Kendrick Bourne is set up for a big season. In a 10-game stretch in 2021 when the team used him in his right role, he caught 39 passes for 596 yards and five touchdowns – a 66/1,013/8 full-season pace. Back in an offense that will utilize his skillset more (and hopefully keep him on the field) he could put up big numbers.

  On defense, I’m looking at Jabrill Peppers. Last year, Peppers was coming off of a torn ACL and in his first year in a new system, and didn’t start making an impact until late in the year. Now fully healthy and with a year of experience under his belt (and back in the No. 5 jersey he starred in at Michigan) I think his game could hit another level. It also helps that the Patriots will likely be giving their safeties more diverse assignments following Devin McCourty’s retirement, and Peppers might be the most all-around versatile of the bunch.

• Do you believe Dugger, Uche, and Owenu will be extended?

  — John Rodgers (@LongWan61426947) July 10, 2023

  If any of these players get an extension before the start of the season, I’d expect it to be during training camp. That’s generally when the Patriots take care of those sorts of moves.

  Of the three, I think Dugger makes the most sense to extend. He’s become a key piece of the Patriots’ defense, and stylistically would be the hardest to replace. The Patriots have a couple of young guard prospects who could step in for Onwenu, and generally do a good job of developing offensive linemen. As mentioned above with Uche, he’s been inconsistent throughout his career which could make the team cautious about giving him a long-term deal.

• Who’s the week one starting specialists (P/K)?

  — Joseph carlson (@Josephc31983724) July 10, 2023

  I had Chad Ryland and Corliss Waitman as the kicker and punter in my last roster projection, so I’ll stick with them for now. Still, the competition between Waitman and sixth-round pick Bryce Baringer is razor thin heading into camp, so things can definitely change there.

• Who is better, McDaniels or OBrien?

  — Matt Urban (@mattuurban) July 10, 2023

  This is a great question. McDaniels had his operation down to a tee, but he also got a massive decade-long window to build it up – much longer than most offensive coordinators get in the modern age. With O’Brien, I’ll be very interested to see how he adjust come of his core concepts in the NFL after spending the last two seasons at the college level.

• Did the Parker extension affect the need to get Hopkins and what’s your thoughts on the Hopkins situation

  — J mucci (@Jmucci6885371) July 11, 2023

  As I wrote two weeks ago, I don’t think the two things are related. The Patriots got Parker extended on a good deal, and prevented a situation in which they’d have to rebuild almost their entire WR room next year. At the same time, they still need a No. 1, coverage-dictating wideout. That hasn’t changed, and the money suggests they don’t believe Parker will be filling that role.

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