Mazz: Shohei Ohtani is using the Red Sox
See that grin in the photo above? If you ask me, Shohei Ohtani is playing the Red Sox.
And by playing, we don’t mean playing against them. We mean playing them – and you? – for a fool.
Free agency in baseball started roughly two weeks ago, of course, but intensity is picking up with the news that Ohtani, among others, rejected a qualifying offer from the Los Angeles Angels yesterday and cemented his place on the open market. And despite the fact that Ohtani won’t be able to pitch until 2025 after undergoing elbow surgery, he remains the whitest of whales, a two-way talent baseball has not seen since Babe Ruth. Further, there have been reports that Ohtani also may be willing to sign a short-term contract with an exceptionally high average annual value this offseason, a decision that would bring more suitors (like the Red Sox?) into play and allow Ohtani to re-enter the market within a few years.
Sure, it all sounds good.
Now read this paragraph by Jeff Passan of ESPN, whose entire free agency preview can be found here.
“Ohtani, according to multiple sources, has expressed affinity for certain teams and cities in the past. He deeply respects the Los Angeles Dodgers’ ways, their ability to develop players and their progressive coaching approach. He appreciates the Texas Rangers – not just for their 2023 World Series victory but the fact that early in his career, when he was playing in Japan, they expressed strong interest in him. He loves visiting Boston and has a fondness for Fenway Park.”
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 17: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 17, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Obviously, pay attention to that last line. He loves visiting Boston and has a fondness for Fenway Park. As Michael Felger said on the air year yesterday, so does Aunt Millie who lives in Vermont. That doesn’t mean she wants to play for the Red Sox. In Passan’s writing above, Ohtani’s links to the Dodgers and Rangers are centered on respect for the organizations, both of whom can now be classified as winners. The description of Boston makes it sound like he wants to spend the All-Star break on Nantucket and maybe take a tour of Fenway on the way back to the airport.
Tell you what … let’s go back to September, when the esteemed Peter Gammons first linked Ohtani to the Red Sox. In this tweet, Gammons similarly offered up a reason Ohtani might be lured to Boston – his link to New Balance.
See a pattern here? Ohtani wants Boston because he likes the city. And the ballpark. And New Balance. But nowhere does it saying anything about respect for the Red Sox and their ability to win, which should concern you. And if you think the Red Sox are going to outbid the field for what could be the biggest contract in the history of North American team sports, you obviously haven’t been paying attention. When it comes to free agents, the Red Sox now seem to operate with a clearly diagnosed fear of commitment. Talk about Failure to Launch.
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 16: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels watches his fly out to right field during the fourth inning at Fenway Park on April 16, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
So fine, Ohtani is an obvious longshot. Big deal. But here’s what should concern you if you’re willing to extrapolate. The Red Sox’ biggest need this offseason is obvious: starting pitching. The market is deep. But as Passan (and others) have noted, the list of wealthy suitors is long, including – as Passan puts it – everybody. That means the bidding will escalate. And it means that money may not be the greatest determining factor. If everyone is willing to go to absurd lengths – and, despite the Red Sox’ desperation, we can’t even be certain of that – the pursuits for Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Blake Snell or Aaron Nola might come down to things the Red Sox really lack. Like organizational credibility, for instance.
After all, in the last 10 years, they have had almost as many heads of baseball operations (four) as last-place finishes (five).
Oh, one more thing: If Shohei Ohtani likes “visiting Boston” and has “a fondness” for Fenway Park (where has a .310 career average), he can still keep both as opponent.
And in the process, he can still hit against the Red Sox pitching staff.
Now that sounds appealing.
Mazz: The 2024 Red Sox offseason plan
Catcher
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 16: Connor Wong #12 of the Boston Red Sox looks on against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 16, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: Ninth in OPS, 10th in WAR
MLB: 18th in OPS, 19th in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: Fifth in DRS, 10th in DEF
MLB: 12 in DRS, 18th in DEF
OK, the catching on this team isn’t a total disaster – but it isn’t good, either, no matter how much people want to talk up Connor Wong. In a perfect world, Wong would be a backup to an experienced starter who bats left-handed and can handle a staff. We’re not sure that profile is available and the position is almost always imperfect. (The Sox reportedly explored the right-handed-hitting Sean Murphy last offseason but he was dealt to Atlanta.)
The Sox have other needs (read: starting pitching) that are greater and 2023 first-round pick Kyle Teel is already at Double-A. The guess is that the Sox will continue to stopgap here, though it wouldn’t hurt to upgrade Reese McGuire. The free-agent market is thin. Overall, the Sox are slightly below average at this position, but other needs are bigger.
First base
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 28: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the top of the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on July 28, 2023 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: Second in OPS, fourth in WAR
MLB: Seventh in OPS, 10th in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: Sixth in DRS, 15th in DEF
MLB: 17th DRS, 30th in DEF
For all the things that went wrong for the Red Sox this year, here’s something that generally went right: the development of Triston Casas. (Once again, a reminder that he was drafted under Dave Dombrowski.) By the end of the season, Casas looked like a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat. In his final 106 games, Casas batted .293 with a .922 OPS. The defense was poor for the first half of the season, though he did improve some as the year progressed.
Will Casas ever be a great first baseman? Probably not. But if he can become an average fielder, the Sox can sandwich him and Rafael Devers around a right-handed bat at the 2-3-4 spots in the lineup (or 3-4-5) to form a heart of the order that could be formidable for years to come. This is one of the few spots on the diamond where the Sox shouldn’t need to mess with anything for at least some time.
(This feels like a good time to mention the following: DRS is defensive runs saved and rates a player defensively among those at his position; DEF is defensive runs above average and factors in a positional adjustment so that, in this case, first basemen can be compared to other positions. As a result, most (if not all) first basemen have a negative rating in this area, though the Red Sox ranked dead last.)
Second Base
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 16: Christian Arroyo #39 of the Boston Red Sox in action against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 16, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: Fifth in OPS, 11th in WAR
MLB: 17th in OPS, 26th in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: 15th in DRS, 15th in DEF
MLB: 30th DRS, 30th in DEF
Quick, name the Red Sox second baseman this year. The right answer? There isn’t one.
In order of games played, the Red Sox had 12 players appear at the position in 2023: Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes, Luis Urias, Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, Yu Chang, Connor Wong, Ceddanne Rafaela, David Hamilton, Trevor Story, and Bobby Dalbec. So who’s the starter in 2024? Good question.
The Sox actually got half-decent offense at this position, but the defense (as was the case at many positions this year) was a disaster. The best plan may to be move back Trevor Story, who isn’t going to like it. But a team like the Red Sox shouldn’t be taking such a sloppy approach.
Third base
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 20: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox tries to field a ground ball in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on September 20, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: First in OPS, eighth in WAR
MLB: First in OPS, 13th in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: 12th in DRS, 14th in DEF
MLB: 26th DRS, 29th in DEF
Starting in 2024, Devers will count for a little more than $29 million per year on the Red Sox luxury tax payroll, which is fine. He’s an elite offensive run producer. This year, despite some ups and downs, he finished first in OPS among all regular third baseman, which is no small feat.
So why is his WAR (a combination of offense and defense) relatively low? Because his defense in 2023 was poor. And let’s make this much clear: the value of Devers’ 10-year, $313.5-million contract depends on him providing elite production as a third baseman. If he becomes a below average fielder and/or designated hitter, his value goes down.
While he may never be a great third baseman, Devers needs to be much better in the field than he was in 2023. Still, relatively speaking, he’s not a problem.
Shortstop
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 23: Korey Lee #26 of the Chicago White Sox throws down to third base after Trevor Story #10 of the Boston Red Sox struck out during the fourth inning at Fenway Park on September 23, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: 13th in OPS, 14th in WAR
MLB: 27th in OPS, 28th in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: Sixth in DRS, 13th in DEF
MLB: 12th DRS, 25th in DEF
So here’s the argument for keeping Story at shortstop: the Red Sox defense improved considerably once he returned to the lineup. Still, Boston’s overall rankings at the position plummeted in the absence of Xander Bogaerts, backboned the San Diego Padres of a WAR that ranked seventh in the majors at the position.
So why consider moving Story to second? Because opening up the market at two positions might prove to make more sense. If there is value in Story’s versatility, use it. When he played this year, injury or no injury, he was a major disappointment offensively.
In two seasons with the Sox now, he has batted .227 with a .685 OPS. We’re not in Colorado anymore, Toto.
Left Field
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 27: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox blows bubbles in the dugout during the sixth inning of their final home game of the season against the Tampa Bay Ray at Fenway Park on September 27, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: third in OPS, third in WAR
MLB: eighth in OPS, sixth in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: 10th in DRS, 13th in DEF
MLB: 12th 15th, 23rd in DEF
Given the above photo, let’s put it this way: in the second half, the proverbial bubble under Masataka Yoshida abruptly burst. Yoshida’s output plummeted after the All-Star break, his OPS dropping by roughly 200 points while he emerged as a defensive liability.
That said, left field at Fenway Park is one place where you can hide bad defense. (The Red Sox have had a long history of it.) Like everyone, Yoshida has more value if he requires a glove. Still, his presence highlights a core problem in 2023: bad defense at the corners. Only one player can be the designated hitter. The ones who don’t have to play representative defense or things could break down.
Center Field
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Ceddanne Rafaela #43 of the Boston Red Sox hits an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on August 30, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: second in OPS, third in WAR
MLB: third in OPS, fifth in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: 13th in DRS, 14th in DEF
MLB: 24th in DRS, 28rd in DEF
The Red Sox employed seven players as their center fielder this season, but the best defensive player of the lot is no longer with the organization: Enrique Hernandez. The other six center fielders included Jarren Duran, Adam Duvall, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsnyder, and Raimel Tapia, the first five of whom come with varying questions and the last of whom is no longer with the organization.
There isn’t a clear choice here, though a tandem of Rafaela and Abreu is intriguing. The overall defense has to be better. And before you mention Jarren Duran, the best place for him is left field, forcing either him or Yoshida into a DH role. Is one of them trade bait?
Right Field
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 23: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after lining out with two runners on-base during the eighth inning of their 1-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox at Fenway Park on September 23, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Notable team offensive, overall ranks
AL: fifth in OPS, fifth in WAR
MLB: 10th in OPS, eighth in WAR
Notable team defensive ranks
AL: second in DRS, second in DEF
MLB: fifth in DRS, fifth in DEF
If you’re frustrated with Alex Verdugo, you’re not alone – the Red Sox are right there with you. The irony is that right field was one of the Red Sox’ most competitive positions in 2023, at least based on the numbers. The problem? Verdugo was disciplined at least twice (that we know of) by manager Alex Cora and didn’t really make a difference.
From the above participants in center field, the Red Sox may be able to at least fortify two outfield positions and include Verdugo in a trade for pitching. At this point, the most surprising outcome would include his return.
Designated Hitter
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 20: Justin Turner #2 of the Boston Red Sox hits a three-run home run during the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on August 20, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Notable team, overall ranks
AL: sixth in OPS, ninth in WAR
MLB: 11th in OPS, 13th in WAR
Of all the players acquired by deposed chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, Justin Turner may ultimately prove to have been the most fruitful. Turner was a good, reliable player for the Red Sox, though the team’s ultimate production at the position was slightly above average.
Turner has a player option for 2024 and would be a good fit in the lineup from the right side, but the Sox might actually have more flexibility if he opts out. Could and should they want him back? Depending on the scenarios, sure. But it may depend on whatever else is available to them.
Also, the fact that Alex Cora made sure to give Turner a proper sendoff at Fenway Park suggests that Cora already knows something we do not. Last year, Cora did the same for Xander Bogaerts. Before long, Bogaerts was officially gone.
Bullpen
ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 18: Chris Martin #55 of the Boston Red Sox pitches against the Texas Rangers during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field on September 18, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Key rankings
AL: 10th in ERA, 14th in strikeouts per nine, fourth in innings, fifth in WAR, 11th in WHIP, 14th in batting average against, sixth in home runs per nine IP, seventh in walks per nine IP
MLB: 21st in ERA, 25th in strikeouts per nine IP, fifth in IP, 13th in WAR, 23rd in WHIP, 27th in batting average against, 15th in home runs per nine IP, 10th in walks per nine IP
The Red Sox set out with a clear goal for their bullpen in 2023 – to throw more strikes. And they did. Overall, the relief corps was one of the strengths of the team, though the innings piled up and ultimately resulted in the numbers looking worse than they probably deserved to be.
Was the bullpen great? No. But it wasn’t as bad as some of those rankings suggest, though the increase in strikes thrown had an obvious side effect: more hits allowed. Still, the Sox didn’t give up an absurd number of home runs and the bullpen generally contributed more wins than losses.
Presumably, Garrett Whitlock will be a full-time reliever and that will help, but the Sox could use a stud lefty – like most teams – as insurance for the surprising Brennan Bernardino. All things considered, however, there is lots to work with here.
Starting Rotation
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 28: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox pitches to a Baltimore Orioles batter in the third inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 28, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Key rankings
AL: 12th in ERA, fourth in strikeouts per nine, 14th in innings, 12th in WAR, 10th in WHIP, 13th in batting average against,14th in home runs per nine IP, sixth in walks per nine IP
MLB: 22nd in ERA, seventh in strikeouts per nine IP, 27th in IP, 23rd in WAR, 17th in WHIP, 19th in batting average against, 26th in home runs per nine IP, 11th in walks per nine IP
The Red Sox tried to go young this year with Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford … and it wasn’t close to good enough. So now what? They couldn’t possibly rely on Chris Sale again. (Or could they?) Nick Pivetta closed the season like Secretariat in spikes, but that feels like fool’s gold.
What the Sox need is to spend for a frontline starter (Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Blake Snell?) or trade for one (Dylan Cease?) … or both. The need is pretty clear. Please, no more dinking around. With some help at the top of the rotation, the Red Sox could be considerably better in 2024.
We’ve seen this before. Time to pay the fiddler.
