Patriots Mailbag: Offensive personnel, pressure, and predictions

• Alex, I know the offensive line is an issue early in the season. My question is in regards to the RBs. Why is Ty Montgomery on this team if the Patriots aren’t going to use him? He’s on the 53 man to watch kicks sail into the end zone? He’s a passing down back and yet you’re…

  — Andrew Caraway (@Caraway6) September 19, 2023

  Great question here from Andrew. I was wondering about Ty Montgomery’s usage myself after Sunday’s game.

  With their offensive line issues, the Patriots seem to be running more ground concepts that prioritize getting the back out of the tackle box as quickly as possible (tosses, sweeps, etc.). Given that, it would make sense to get more speed at that position so the back can get out of harms way as fast as possible and attack the edge earlier in the play. As the team is built right now, that player would be Montgomery.

  Through two games Montgomery has played just 10 offensive snaps – eight lined up as a receiver and two lined up in the backfield. If the Patriots want to jump-start their ground game, which is currently averaging 3.5 yards per carry, giving Montgomery a look should be a consideration.

• Interestingly enough I think Chad Johnson – yes, Ochocinco – may have helped answer this question when I talked to him last week. Reflecting on his own tenure in New England, which was during Bill O’Brien’s first stint as offensive coordinator, Johnson recalled how costly it was for him to miss the offseason program.

  “I think what I didn’t get is, I didn’t get the offseason program and I didn’t get a chance to really integrate myself and submerge myself into the offense as much as I would have liked to be somewhat efficient,” Johnson told me on Sunday when I asked him about O’Brien’s offense and what it’s like for wide receivers. “So I could have given the Pats fans the old Chad that we were used to seeing and having fun and being very productive.”

  Unlike Johnson, who was acquired via trade in late July of 2011, JuJu Smith-Schuster wasn’t completely unavailable for the offseason program this spring. He was in the building, but didn’t take part in any on-field work due to his lingering knee injury. That lack of work with Mac Jones and the rest of the offense as a whole could certainly be contributing to his slow start. Any lingering impact from the knee injury, which he suffered in last year’s playoffs while with the Kansas City Chiefs, could be a factor as well.

• The chances of seeing this are probably low at best. Although Mike Onwenu has proven himself to be a capable NFL right tackle, the Patriots haven’t even toyed around with putting him at that spot since last season. Given he’s coming off an injury and seems to still be limited to begin with, I’d say the odds are even lower than usual.

• For what they have right now, Calvin Anderson is still the best fit at right tackle (assuming they won’t put Mike Onwenu over there). I know some people are excited about the idea of La’el Collins, but he is 30 years old and coming off a torn ACL and MCL. There is a reason he started the season on PUP in Cincinnati. Given how desperate teams around the league, not just the Patriots, are for quality offensive line play, the fact he’s still unsigned is a bit of a red flag.

• O’Brien’s first two weeks have been a mixed bag. The offense has certainly improved and makes much more sense from a technical standpoint, but they haven’t come far enough. Some of the play-calling has been very conservative, especially situationally. It’s tough to tell if that’s them compensating for their offensive line issues, or if that’s their overall philosophy this year regardless.

  Moving forward I believe O’Brien’s focus will be on sustaining drives – especially given his comments Tuesday morning. In terms of moving the ball the Patriots are actually doing a relatively good job – their 335 yards per game so far ranks 14th in the NFL, up from the 26th spot where they finished last season. Yet their scoring is down. He pointed out that in just two games the Patriots have had six drives get inside the opponents 30-yard line without resulting in points. That trend needs to change for this team to start winning games.

• It would be great if the Patriots could get more from either Rhamondre Stevenson or Ezekiel Elliott, but I don’t think either is the biggest issue for the Patriots’ ground game right now. It’s the offensive line.

  After two weeks, PFF has the Patriots with an overall ‘rushing’ grade of 80.6. That number, which reflects mainly the actual ball-carrier, ranks third in the NFL. However, their run blocking grade is 39.1 – last in the league.

  This is also reflected in where the Patriots have and haven’t been able to run the ball. When rushing between the tackles this year, they’re averaging just 2.28 yards per carry on 36 carries. When running outside of the tackle box, where setting the play up is more about spacing and leverage than linemen winning at the point of attack,  that average jumps to 7.8 yards per carry on 10 carries.

• I’d disagree that the entire defensive front has been disappointing to this point. In addition to Matthew Judon, Keion White has gotten off to a very strong start. Deatrich Wise has been mostly a plus as well, but did have two costly penalties in the opener.

  When it comes to Josh Uche, the impact has been there – just not the production. Uche leads the team with six hurries and is tied with Judon for the team lead with eight pressures through two games. His pass-rush grade of 89 is the highest on the Patriots and sixth-highest among all edge players in the league.

  As for Christian Barmore, he’s surprisingly shown up more as a run defender than pass rusher. If he can get back to playing like he was last year on passing downs before getting hurt, he’d have a real chance to make a three-down impact.

• This will likely depend on the status of Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones for the game – and for other games moving forwards. If the Patriots are at full strength in the secondary, they’ll probably want to empty the bucket as much as possible and throw as many looks as they can at opposing quarterbacks. Being shorthanded though could force them to simplify. If that’s the case, then it would make sense to have Christian Gonzalez shadow Garrett Wilson, with the rest of the defense ‘playing 10-on-10.’

• Why not?

• After Sunday night’s loss to Miami was as somber as I’ve seen the Patriots’ locker room post-game in quite some time (to be fair, I wasn’t in Las Vegas last year). I think players understood the way in which that game slipped through their fingers.

  This is where the Patriots will need to lean on their leadership to pull the group together. They still can dig out of this 0-2 hole they’ve started in, but close losses like this can lead to things spiraling. Having the right emotional response this week, starting with their first practice of the week on Wednesday, will be important.

• It feels like we’re getting there with Hunter Henry, doesn’t it? He’s been the Patriots’ best pass-catcher through two games, leading the team with 11 catches for 108 yards and two touchdowns. This comes after he was the most consistent player over the summer.

  When talking about Henry’s future though, it’s worth bringing Mac Jones into the conversation. When the time comes with Henry – if the Patriots feel they’re going to extend Jones as well, it makes all the sense in the world to keep his favorite target in the building. Yet if the Patriots know they’re moving on from Jones, it suddenly makes less sense to keep a 30-year old high-paid tight end around through a rebuilt.

  So, we’ve got a ways to go before answering this question. But for now, Henry is trending in the right direction.

• This scenario certainly isn’t unrealistic. The Patriots’ scheduled is structured the same way it has been the last few years – tough up front, easier in the middle, then a gauntlet down the stretch. That middle part is shorter than it’s been in recent years, but besides that it’s certainly similar. If the Patriots want to avoid a similar fate to the last few years, they’re going to have to pull out some upsets in December and early January.

• On offense I’d say the Patriots’ most athletic/explosive players are Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas. Defensively, I’d go with Kyle Dugger, Christian Gonzalez, Marte Mapu, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Matthew Judon, and Keion White.

• Maybe there’s some miscommunication here, but to me they’re the same statement. If Mac Jones is playing well enough for the team to win, yet the team isn’t winning, doesn’t that put the onus for improvement on others on the roster? I guess my point is while there’s room for Jones to improve after the first two games, but he’s hardly been their biggest issue. If his immediate improvement was the biggest question at this point, they’d be projected as a playoff team right now.

• This is what’s so frustrating about this Patriots team. In a bubble, they’ve showed plenty of encouraging signs that make you think ‘if they can just clean up the little things, they’ll be O.K.’ The mistakes they’ve made so far aren’t that uncommon for a team early in the year.

  But this team doesn’t exist in a bubble. The early season issues that seem easy to clean up? They’ve haven’t been able to do that for a few years now. Is this team different? Do they deserve the benefit of the doubt? That depends how much faith you have in Bill O’Brien and Adrian Klemm.

• I’ll echo my point from above here. Yes, if they stop turning the ball over they do have the upside of a playoff team. But they need to actually stop turning it over for that to matter. Can they make that adjustment without becoming too conservative offensively?

• To keep the theme of the last two answers going – they need to stop with the self-inflicted mistakes. Turnovers, bad penalties, poor in-game managements, etc. The biggest thing the Patriots need to change from the first two games is do less to get in their own way.

• Yes, the Patriots have looked good up-tempo. But part of the reason for that (and this applies to most teams around the league) is that simply changing the tempo is enough to throw the defense off rhythm. If the team moves to an up-tempo offense full time, they lose that change and it cuts into the effectiveness of the tactic. There’s certainly an argument to be made for going up-tempo more often than they have through two games, but there’s a point where it becomes too much as well.

• Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.