What to watch for in the New England Patriots’ season finale against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
The New England Patriots’ 2024 season comes to a close on Sunday. For their season finale, the Patriots host the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium.
Two weeks ago when these teams met in Buffalo, it was one of if not the high point of the Patriots’ season. Going into Highmark Stadium as two touchdown underdogs, the Patriots jumped out to a 14-point lead early on the defending division champions. They remained competitive throughout the game, but did end up losing 24-21 as late turnovers proved too much to overcome.
This week’s game will look a little different. The Bills won’t exactly be coming for revenge for the Patriots making them sweat one out at home. Since that game Buffalo has clinched its playoff spot and is locked into the second seed in the AFC, no matter the outcome of this game. As such the Bills’ starters are expected to play a limited role, if at all, on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Patriots do have stakes in this game. With a loss the Patriots would clinch the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. A win would knock them as far down as the fourth pick, depending on what happens with the other three-win teams in the league.
In that sense, losing could be advantageous for the Patriots’ franchise as a whole. That being said, individual players and coaches don’t have much incentive to ‘tank’ the game. Players are playing for future roles either in New England or elsewhere, and won’t be trying to put bad plays on tape. The same goes for coaches, who will have future jobs in mind.
Of course, there’s also the point of pride that comes from competitive individuals. “I’ve never been a part of a team, as a player or as a coach, going into a game not wanting to win,” head coach Jerod Mayo said on Wednesday. “It’s not going to change [this week], so that’s my message to the team.”
That being said, there are concerns beyond ‘tanking’ that starters – especially projected long-term players – may not play fully in this game. Injuries are always a concern, as Mayo referenced this week. Most of that concern this week has regarded the quarterback position. Let’s start there in this week’s ‘5 Things.’
The plan for Drake Maye
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 15: Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots looks to pass during the fourth quarter of a game against the New England Patriots at State Farm Stadium on December 15, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images)
We know that Drake Maye will start the game at quarterback, after offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said so on Thursday. The question is, how much of Maye will we see? Van Pelt was less committal when answering that question, saying “we’re playing the game to win the game for sure and we’ll see how it goes from that point. But yes, that’s the intent.”
The Patriots simply starting Maye does make some sense. After a successful rookie season they should be doing all they can to position him as a true superstar quarterback and one of the faces of the NFL. Those quarterbacks start these games – as evidenced by the Bills having Allen start. If the Bills can do it with Allen, why shouldn’t the Patriots give Maye the same treatment?
At the same time, Allen’s start will likely be a couple of handoffs, maybe a designed quick pass, and that will be it. It’s tough to see Buffalo having him play more than two drives at the absolute most.
It would make the most sense for that to be the Patriots’ plan with Maye as well. The worst possible outcome for the Patriots this week – worse than losing the first overall pick – would be for Maye to suffer a significant injury that causes him to miss time in his offseason training program or potentially even into training camp. The Year 1 to Year 2 jump is the most important for NFL players, and the Patriots need Maye to take full advantage of that window.
Whether or not that will actually be the plan remains to be seen. But if the Patriots are more focused on the long-term window, not exposing Maye makes the most sense.
The plan after Drake Maye
Aug 8, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Joe Milton III (19) throws against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
If Drake Maye isn’t going to play the full game, who steps in? That should be fellow rookie, sixth-round pick Joe Milton.
Milton is yet to be active in a game this year. He’s been dressed but technically inactive as the team’s emergency third quarterback on game days, while working with the scout team during the week.
That changed this week. Alex Van Pelt shared on Thursday that Milton took some reps with the regular offense in practice.
In this game, turning to Milton makes much more sense for the Patriots than backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is a pending free agent, who likely will be playing elsewhere next year. The Patriots will need a new backup, and this game could be a chance to evaluate Milton and see if he can be that guy, or if they’ll need to invest in a new backup QB this offseason.
This could also turn into a showcase game for Milton. If he plays well – even against the Bills backups – that could set the Patriots up to trade him this year or in the future, flipping him for more than the sixth-round pick they used to draft him.
There is some precedent for players using regular season finale games to garner league-wide attention. The most famous is quarterback Matt Flynn, who in just his second career start set Green Bay Packers single-game records with 480 yards and six touchdowns against the Detroit Lions in Week 17. Flynn, who was a pending free agent at the time, signed a significant contract with the Seattle Seahawks that spring that put him in line to be the starting quarterback (although he lost that job in training camp to a third-round pick rookie named Russell Wilson).
Other players to watch
August 8, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots offensive tackle Caedan Wallace (70) lines up with Carolina Panthers linebacker Luiji Vilain (43) during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Beyond the quarterback position, what other players will be in the spotlight in this game? Facing mostly backups it will be hard for players to truly make a statement heading into the offseason, and the team doesn’t have many internal free agents up to make a case for getting a new contract.
That being said, there are a couple of players to keep an eye on. Let’s start on the offensive line, with rookie right tackle Caedan Wallace. Wallace returned from IR last week and played for the first time since Week 4, coming in late in the blowout loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Patriots drafted Wallace in the third round last spring, a pick that should correlate with a player at least competing for a starting role. They didn’t get much of a chance to evaluate Wallace fully this year due to his injury. This game isn’t enough to get a definitive answer on whether or not he’s a starting-caliber right tackle, but at this point any reps are valuable for him.
In terms of pending free agents, there are a few veteran starters who could use a good performance – either to convince the Patriots to bring them back or end up elsewhere. Jonathan Jones and Deatrich Wise were not among the many players that got contract extensions leading into the season, which means the team may not see them as part of the long-term plan. There’s also kicker Joey Slye, who has struggled late in this season but still has a chance to end on a high note.
Draft pick watch
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 29: Malik Nabers #1 and Drew Lock #2 of the New York Giants celebrate after a touchdown during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium on December 29, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Getty Images)
As mentioned above, if the Patriots lose this game they’ll lock up the first overall pick. If they win they’d still have the highest pick of the four-win teams via the strength of schedule tiebreaker. That means they could pick as low as fourth overall, but would move up one spot for any wins by the other three-loss teams – the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants.
The outcome for those three teams still are relevant to the Patriots’ draft positioning, even if the Patriots lose and secure the top overall pick. Rather than those results impacting the first round though, they’re about the rest of the draft.
When non-playoff teams are tied record-wise in the draft, strength of schedule is used as the tiebreaker in the first round. However, that order doesn’t stick throughout the draft. The tied teams rotate picks in the following rounds, with the team at the top falling to the back of the group and everybody else moving up a spot.
For instance, last year the Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals each finished with four wins. Here’s how their picks were originally awarded by round for the first four rounds…
1st: WAS, NE, AZ
2nd: NE, AZ, WAS
3rd: AZ, WAS, NE
4th: WAS, NE, AZRight now, there are four teams tied for the worst record in the league. That means while the Patriots would pick first in the first round, they’d pick fourth in the second round (36th overall). Thinning that group out in Week 18 would benefit the Patriots’ draft positioning on Days 2 and 3.
As for games to watch, the Browns visit the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday while the Titans host the Houston Texans and the Giants visit the Eagles on Sunday.
Thank you
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 10: A new video board sits over the field during a game between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
This wraps up 18 weeks (including the bye week) of ‘5 Things.’ I’ll use this final of the 90 ‘Things’ to thank everybody who checked in every week this year, and read our Patriots coverage on 98.5 The Sports Hub throughout the season. Be sure to come back for plenty of offseason coverage as we gear up towards free agency and the NFL Draft!
