Were the Patriots late season wins costly for them? – Felger & Mazz

The New England Patriots picked up two of their four wins in the 2023 season in the month of December over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos. On Thursday's Felger and Mazz, Jim Murray gave his thoughts on how those late season wins could have cost them when it comes to selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Were the late season wins for the Patriots costly? 

Felger: Alright Big Jim Murray has a developing opinion, lay it on us Jim...

Jim Murray: So a lot of hype is starting to build for this Jayden Daniels while it's going the other way with Drake Maye. And with Daniels I think it's justified. Despite the slight frame he's 6' 4", tall, looks the mold, has the physical attributes you want in a quarterback for today's NFL. He's slight but you can put weight on however it may be. But weight's not a problem. When you look at a guy like Bryce Young, slight and tiny, you see what the issue is. So here's the thing. You're not going to get him. You're going to have no chance of getting him. This is Washington's quarterback. And I don't think this is being mentioned enough, they just hired Kliff Kingsbury to be their offensive coordinator and he's worked with Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech., Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams, all guys where mobility's a big part of their game. That's a big factor. And my gut tells me he's not going to be satisfied with Drake Maye. And I know he can run two, but Daniels fits more of the mold of what Kingsbury I think wants to work with. Washington with that new owner, who's apparently in on all these interviews at the combine by the way, this guy wants to make a splash. They're not giving up that spot. The Patriots are not trading up to two. It's just not going to happen. I'm convinced of it. Washington is taking Jayden Daniels.

Jim Murray: So it's really a long way of me saying the worst thing that's going to happen to the Patriots is something I go back to last year......winning those worthless games against Denver or Pittsburgh. "Oh but the culture! and it's bad juju and you don't want to do that", for up certain people to say, I'm not going to name names (Felger), but what culture? They blow! Their own players are tossing out F's and F minuses left and right. The culture stinks. They're terrible. So they're starting over regardless. And I feel like I'm just going to be like, ":I told you so", if they end up with Maye and Maye blows because there's all these red flags all of a sudden. I got real trepidation about this Drake Maye just based on what other people are saying, Zo himself, our own Cerrone Battle. They look at him like, "no, like this isn't the guy, he's going to end up over drafted". You have Merrill Hodge saying he wouldn't even take him in the first round. I just think we're going to look back at those particular games and say they blew it. They shouldn't have won those stupid games against Denver and Pittsburgh. If they take Maye and he sucks, we're going to look back at this and say they shouldn't have won those games.

Listen to Felger and Mazz from 2-6 every Monday-Friday on 98.5 The Sports Hub, with hosts Mike Felger, Tony “Mazz” Massarotti, and Jim Murray “Big Jim”. You can listen live in the Sports Hub App and subscribe to their podcasts here. Follow @FelgerAndMazz on Twitter to keep up with the show!

Shortly after he was hired as the New England Patriots' new offensive coordinator, it was reported by NFL Network that Alex Van Pelt will have "a heavy hand" in helping pick the team's next quarterback. That begs the question - what does he value and what is he looking for at the position?

During his introductory press conference on Wednesday, Van Pelt was asked that question not once, but twice. In those two answers, he laid out the early parameters of what traits stand out to him at the position.

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"Smart, tough, and a leader...I mean, obviously there's accuracy in the pass game and mobility and decision-making," Van Pelt replied when asked to describe his ideal quarterback. "The physical attributes are obviously important, but if a guy is a great leader and can come in and make good decisions and throw the ball accurately, those are all pluses."

Later on, Van Pelt was asked what traits he looks for when evaluating quarterbacks. "Again, it just goes back to decision -making, accuracy, the fundamentals, mechanics - if the guy sound. A big one again, is leadership," he explained. "The big piece for me is the leadership, the toughness, the accuracy, and the decision-making."

That all brings us to the NFL Draft. If the Patriots do decide to take a quarterback, which guys this year are the best fit? Do any of the players further down the board check more of these specific boxes than the guys at the top? To find out, let's look at the best players in the draft at each individual trait Van Pelt named, trait by trait. However, we'll do so with two caveats.

First, we're not going to include USC quarterback Caleb Williams in our rankings. As the clear-cut projected top pick, the Patriots likely won't have a shot to draft him. Even if they do want to trade up for him that's a move that would likely be telegraphed ahead of time.

Also, although it's the trait Van Pelt highlighted the most, we're not going to rank quarterbacks by 'leadership.' Not because it's not important - it certainly is - but that's not something that can be seen on tape. Only those in the locker rooms with these quarterbacks really know what kind of leaders they are, and for the most part teammates or coaches don't knock lack of leadership in public leading up to the draft. For the Patriots, it will be important to learn more about what makes all the quarterbacks tick and their leadership styles through pre-draft interviews, but for the purposes of our little experiment here we'll call that an 'unknown variable.'

Moving on from that, we'll rank the top three players for each trait Van Pelt mentioned, in the order he mentioned them - intelligence, decision-making, toughness, accuracy, mobility, and throwing mechanics. From there, we'll come up with an aggregate score based on that (top player gets three points, middle gets two, third gets one), and see who has the highest score at the end.

One more thing, and I can't stress this enough - I didn't go into this trying to cook the final results. There is no pre-determined order (honestly I ended up surprised with the final result, and don't agree with it). I did my best to give my honest opinion on each trait, and then let the cards fall where they may.

1. Michael Penix, Washington
2. Bo Nix, Oregon
3. Drake Maye, UNC

Penix and Nix have both seen a lot of football, and it shows in the way they play. They've both run multiple offenses and display a good understanding of how defenses will try to attack certain offensive concepts, both pre- and post-snap. Maye sneaks on as a less-experienced quarterback, but had a good amount on his plate in the context of UNC's offense this year. Some of the plays he made when the original call broke down showed he had a deep understanding of where all 10 of his teammates were on the field at all times.

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
2. Michael Penix, Washington
3. Michael Pratt, Tulane

This trait is tough because it's hard to say any of the top quarterbacks have 'decision-making' as a carrying trait. That being said, Daniels does a very good job in reading the field to limit potential turnovers throwing the ball, with just seven interceptions in 715 passes over the last two years, while posting a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.6 percent. He does need to make better decisions as a runner though, and keep himself out of harms way more often.

1. Michael Penix, Washington
2. Drake Maye, UNC
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU

Penix is far and away the leader here. For all of the games he missed due to injury, there are more most players probably should have missed but he played through whatever was ailing him. Multiple times this season he took big hits in the pocket, and would come back a player or two later and deliver a big-time throw. The hits also added up - he's the most-pressured quarterback of any in this year's class with PFF having him at 577 pressured dropbacks. He's also shown great mental toughness given his roller coaster career path.

Maye faced his own increased pressure, playing behind a UNC offensive line that struggled at times. Still, he made the most of his opportunities and stayed in games. Meanwhile, Daniels took a beating this year (which was at times his own fault) but maintained a high level of play throughout the season.

1. Bo Nix, Oregon
2. Michael Penix, Washington
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU

Nix set an NCAA single-season record for completion percentage in 2023 at 77.4 percent, narrowly surpassing Mac Jones' old record by 0.84 percent. While most of that was done on shorter, higher-percentage passes (Nix had the lowest average depth of target among draft-eligible quarterbacks this year at 6.8 yards per attempt), Nix truly was lasered in and didn't miss any layups. Plus, he did show good touch on the rarer occasions he sent the ball down the field.

Daniels and Penix make this list because of their accuracy to specific parts of the field - parts that are harder to hit for most quarterbacks. Penix is the best deep ball thrower in this class, and his downfield accuracy is a big part of that. Daniels' accuracy outside the numbers at all levels is a plus in his game.

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
2. Drake Maye, UNC
3. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Again, another category where there's a clear favorite. Daniels isn't just a mobile quarterback, he's a threat and a game changer with the ball in his hands as a runner. Last year alone he ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns. That skill projects to translate very well to the NFL as long as Daniels stays healthy.

Maye can make plays with his legs and be a factor on the ground, but he's not the kind of explosive threat that Daniels is. The same can be said for McCarthy, whose running mechanics make him more of a factor as a runner than it may intially appear.

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
2. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
3. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

There are some quarterbacks with beautiful mechanics in this class, some with very wonky mechanics, and not much in between. Daniels, Ratter, and McCarthy all have quick, compact, and consistent releases. While there may be a few nuts and bolts to tighten up when they get to the pros, all three are relatively advanced in this regard for where they are in their careers.

Jayden Daniels: 11 points
Michael Penix: 10
Drake Maye: 5
Bo Nix: 5
Spencer Rattler: 2
J.J. McCarthy: 2
Michael Pratt: 1

Again, this is an imperfect science. There's a lot here we don't know.

For one, we don't know how much Van Pelt values one trait over another. When asked on Wednesday if he'd put them in order, he replied "you could switch them either way." We gave equal value to each one, but putting increased emphasis on one or two traits would change the results. Plus, there's that unknown of the leadership intangible.

It's also possible there are other traits Van Pelt values that he did not mention. Key quarterbacking skills that did not come up from ability to handle pressure and arm strength to physical traits like build/size and durability. Scheme fit also wasn't mentioned (although Van Pelt sounded flexible about building his final scheme around his quarterback). Ironically, all of these traits would have had Maye ranked at or towards the top, which may explain his surprisingly low score.

That all being said, not only did Daniels finish with the highest score but he also appeared in the check box for every trait but one. A sign of things to come? Or a reason not to trust 'the math'? It also may not end up mattering if the Washington Commanders end up taking him second overall.

For more on this year's quarterback class, you can check out our 2024 quarterback big board and individual scouting reports here.

Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.