At least one NFL insider still believes Bill Belichick is done in New England
The latest report on Bill Belichick and his future with the New England Patriots indicated that he’s still coming to the end of the road.
That’s according to ESPN NFL insider Dan Graziano, who still believes it’s “likely” that the Patriots move on from Belichick at some point after the end of their 2023 season. Graziano has previously reported on the possibility of the Pats also looking to trade Belichick, who is believed to be under contract for at least the 2024 season and possibly beyond.
Belichick has presided over a 4-11 season for the Patriots, who are projected to have the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft entering Week 17. However, the Patriots have now won two of their last three games after impressive road wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos, both of which remain in the AFC playoff hunt.
The Pats’ recent success came amid an intriguing story by the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, stating in part: “Sources say not only has owner Robert Kraft not come to a firm conclusion on what will happen next with his head-coaching situation, but the way New England finishes could go a long way in determining what’s next.”
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 17: New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots look on prior to a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Since then, the Pats have lost to the Chiefs and now defeated the Broncos. The latter was a Christmas Eve thriller in which they built a 23-7 lead, then drove down the field and kicked a game-winning field goal after Denver had come back to tie it in the fourth quarter. That’s the sign of a team that is not giving up on playing hard for Belichick.
Based on the conflicting reports and the fact that the Pats are starting to win games down the stretch, looking prepared and competitive behind new starting quarterback Bailey Zappe and an excellent defense in the process, it feels like Belichick’s future in New England is still yet to be determined. It shouldn’t be a shock to anyone whether he stays or goes.
But we’re at that stage of this season, which is still on track to be Belichick’s worst as Patriots head coach. It’ll be a tall order for them to beat the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 17, giving them hope for at best a 5-12 season. We’re late enough in the game that reports will continue to come out on Belichick’s status until the decision is actually made.
Whatever that decision is by Patriots ownership, we’ll believe it when we see it.
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Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Check out all of Matt’s content.
A true roller coaster win: 10 takeaways from the Patriots' Christmas Eve in Denver
Comeback kid
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 24: Place kicker Chad Ryland #37 of the New England Patriots celebrates with punter Bryce Baringer #17 after kicking a field goal in the final seconds of the 4th quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
It’s been a rough year for a lot of players on the Patriots, but few have been more ‘in plain sight’ than Chad Ryland, who the Patriots traded up to acquire in the fourth round of this past NFL Draft. Coming into Sunday night Ryland was 13-of-20 on field goal attempts for the season, including being 12-of-17 from inside of 50 yards.
Early on it looked like those struggles were going to continue. Ryland missed a 47-yarder, as will as his first point-after attempt of the year. Yet when called upon to win the game, he stepped up and delivered.
“I’ve obviously been struggling a little bit this year, and I was really, really fortunate to be surrounded by a team that believes in me,” Ryland said after the game. “That helped me to…knock the last one down.”
Of course, one kick isn’t going to be enough for Ryland to totally work his way out of the hole he dug with his performance to start the year. At the same time though, kicking is very involved mentally. Could that make help Ryland re-gain his rhythm and close the season strong? It wouldn’t be totally surprising if that’s the case.
What was Sean Payton thinking?
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton in the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
If it were up to Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ coaching staff, Chad Ryland’s kick may not have happened at all. It was a few decisions by Broncos head coach Sean Payton that enabled that scenario.
After Denver scored the game-tying touchdown, the Broncos forced a Patriots three-and-out to get the ball back with 1:42 to go and all three timeouts, needing just a field goal to win the game. Despite starting at their own 39 and needing about 30 yards to get into field goal range the Broncos got very conservative with their play-calling, and ended up losing three yards on the drive. With all the momentum on their side Denver made no headway and punted the ball back in the final minute.
Getting the ball back with just one timeout, the Patriots seemed content to take the game to overtime. Yet Payton called not just one, but two timeouts after the Patriots ran on the first two plays. With the extra time allotted the Patriots changed their approach, with Bailey Zappe hitting DeVante Parker up the seam for a 29-yard gain on 3rd & 3. Nine yards and three plays later, the Patriots were clocking the ball to set up the game-winning field goal. On top of all of that, Payton didn’t even use his remaining timeout to ice Ryland on the final kick.
As the Patriots’ drive began, they were the only team that could end the game in regulation. The Broncos – needing the win for playoff positioning and holding all the momentum, had every reason to send the game to overtime and win it there, especially after the overly-conservative play-calling the drive before. Yet Payton pressed, and it cost him. The strategy is reminiscent of one used by now-fired Los Angeles Chargers coach Brandon Staley, who cost his team a Week 18 win-and-in game like that in 2021.
Player of the game
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 24: Defensive tackle Christian Barmore #90 of the New England Patriots is congratulated by linebacker Josh Uche #55 after sacking Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos causing a fumble during the 3rd quarter of the game at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Chad Ryland may have been the story of the game, but no one player had more of an impact Sunday night than defensive tackle Christian Barmore. He finished the game with eight tackles, a career-high three sacks with four QB hits, two other tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. Throughout the night he was a one-man wrecking crew in the face of Russell Wilson and tormenting Broncos running backs. It was a truly complete effort.
On top of the numbers, the performance came against a Broncos offensive line that has been a good one this year, especially on the interior. Center Lloyd Cushenberry is PFF’s ninth-ranked center in the NFL, and right guard Quinn Meinerz ranks second.
While this game is certainly a new high-point, dominant performances from Barmore have become the norm the past two months. He’s looking like the attacking three-down interior lineman many projected him as coming out of Alabama in 2021, and it’s resulted in one of the best defensive tackle seasons in the NFL. This offseason Barmore will become eligible for an extension as he enters the final year of his rookie deal, and getting that contract done should be one of the first priorities for the Patriots.
More defensive standouts
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. (3) reacts to a defensive play in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Before we move on, there are three more defensive players that deserve a nod.
Linebacker Mack Wilson, like Christian Barmore, has played very well over the last month. This is as good as he’s looked in the NFL. On Sunday night he had three tackles including a sack, as well as a near-interception early in the game that was overturned upon review.
The Patriots have tried numerous times over the past few years to fill the role of an athletic, sideline-to-sideline off-ball linebacker and Wilson has played the role as well as any. If he finishes the season on this high note, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back and in an increased role next year.
Defensive back Myles Bryant also played a major role in the win. He played nearly wire-to-wire on defense as the Patriots dealt with mounting injuries at cornerback. His highlights included a pass breakup against a much bigger receiver in Courtland Sutton on a deep ball early in the game, and blowing up one of those screen plays the Broncos ran on their late fourth-quarter drive before punting the ball back to the Patriots.
Then there’s defensive tackle Jeremiah Pharms, who made a strong play to recover a fumble in the second quarter that killed a Broncos drive into Patriots territory. While Pharms may not have fallen on the ball initially he ripped it away from a Broncos offensive lineman, and the Patriots were credited with possession. It’s a football cliche that “you never know how much the ball is changing hands at the bottom of one of those plies,” but this time the TV cameras caught it.
Pharms, who played collegiately at NAIA Friends University with stops in the CIF and USFL before joining the Patriots on their practice squad last year, has slowly seen his role increase over the course of the season. With plays like that, he should see more playing time coming his way.
A more complete effort from Bailey Zappe
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) calls out in the first half against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
After surging in the first half and slipping in the second half each of the last two weeks, this Sunday featured a much more balanced performance from Bailey Zappe. It was also arguably his best as a pro so far, as he finished 25-of-33 for 256 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
The biggest difference for Zappe was how he handled more complex rush plans as the game went on. More often than not he stood tough against the blitz and stayed evasive in the pocket even as pass rushers adjusted to his initial moves. The shining example of this was on his touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki, when he scrambled to extend a play just after taking a big shot from a pass rusher earlier in the sequence.
Zappe’s accuracy issues flared up again, but didn’t prove to be as costly this time out. When he missed, he missed well away from the receiver and was leading players away from coverage which helped protect both them and the football.
This fourth-quarter lull for the offense didn’t seem to be primarily Zappe’s doing but rather an adjustment in play-calling. Once they got their lead the Patriots reverted to the second-half offense they ran over the last two weeks, running the ball and repeatedly throwing to Ezekiel Elliott in the flat. Whether that’s because they don’t trust Zappe to put the game away or feel there is a strategic advantage to be exploited is a fair question, but it does seem to be their pattern.
Overall, we’re left with a familiar takeaway from Zappe’s performance. There are flashes in his game, but he needs to be more productive between the flashes consistent overall. Again, as good as they game may have felt offensively from a Patriots standpoint, with the special teams touchdown the offense itself was only responsible for 19 points.
Rookie receiver continues to ‘Pop’
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos safety P.J. Locke (6) tackles New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) in the second quarterf at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
When Bailey Zappe did throw beyond Ezekiel Elliott, his favorite target was rookie wideout Demario Douglas. Douglas finished the game with five catches for 74 yards, one of his best performances of the season. That included a 41-yard deep ball that Douglas, a smaller player who usually wins after the catch, high-pointed to bring in. With that performance, the Patriots’ sixth-round pick now leads the team in both catches (44) and receiving yards (517) this year.
Clearly, much of the Patriots’ offense will need to be re-worked this offseason. That being said, Douglas has shown time and time again that whatever that re-worked offense becomes, there should be a role for him in it.
Zappe-Parker connection remains strong
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver DeVante Parker (1) makes a catch under pressure from Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
While Demario Douglas was Bailey Zappe’s most-targeted receiver, the trust between Zappe and DeVante Parker was on display again Sunday night. Multiple times Zappe put up contested-catch ‘trust’ throws to Parker, and the veteran receiver delivered on the other end. He finished with four catches for 65 yards.
After a slow start to the season, Parker has shown the last few weeks how valuable he can be for a young quarterback. Having signed a contract extension this past offseason he’ll likely be on the team for at least one more year, so this late emergence is notable.
Run game woes continue
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 24: Running back Ezekiel Elliott #15 of the New England Patriots carries the ball during the 1st quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
If there’s so much positive to write about the Patriots’ offense, how did they end up with just two touchdowns and under 300 total yards? One big issue, for the third week in a row, was an inability to run the football.
Coming in, this seemed like a great get-right game for the Patriots’ ground game. Denver was allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season, the most in the NFL.
Yet the Patriots struggled to find any room to run. They finished at just 2.8 yards per carry, their third-lowest total of the year and lowest since early October. Take away a nine-yard end-around by Tyquan Thornton and their average on traditional runs drops to an even 2.5 yards per carry, with their longest run being six yards.
Why did this happen? The Broncos’ frequent blitzes played a big part. Content to cover 1-on-1 down the field for most of the game Denver attacked the line of scrimmage, and left Patriots’ ball-carriers little room to work with. As Bill Belichick noted last week, the best medicine for the Patriots’ ailing running game is a more consistent passing attack.
Tripped up on third downs
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Another key issue for the Patriots’ offense was an inability to extend drives on third downs. The team finished just 3-of-13 on third downs in this game, despite averaging a manageable 6.2 yards to go on third. For context, the lowest average yards to go on third down for any team this season is the Raiders and Colts, at 6.3 yards to go per play. Of the Patriots’ 13 attempts five were 3rd & short (three yards or less) situations, with only two requiring more than 10 yards.
Ultimatley the Patriots’ hit the third downs when they really needed to – like the throw to DeVante Parker on the final drive. But again the key word here is ‘consistency.’ If the Patriots had more overall success on manageable third downs throughout the game, it likely wouldn’t have come down to the wire.
More special teams notes
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 24: Linebacker Marte Mapu #30 of the New England Patriots strips the ball from wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. #19 of the Denver Broncos that ends up being recovered by the Patriots in the endzone for a touchdown during the 3rd quarter of the game at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
A few more special teams notes here as we wrap it up, and let’s start with rookie Marte Mapu. After recording his first career interception last week Mapu forced another turnover in this game, punching the ball loose in the kick return that led to the fumble recovery score by Cody Davis. Mapu continues to look more comfortable as the Patriots give him more playing time.
However, it wasn’t all perfect for the Patriots’ kicking units, especially on punts. The group felt the absence of Matthew Slater, who missed his first game since 2017. Both gunners made potentially costly mistakes. Brenden Schooler missed his league-leading eight special teams tackle of the year on Marvin Mims’ 52-yard punt return, and Chris Board was called for running out of bounds to cover a kick – a penalty that ultimately cost the Patriots’ 19 yards after the Broncos had them re-kick.
Ultimately, the Patriots overcame these issues Sunday night. But these costly special teams gaffes continue to be an overarching theme this season.
