Milliken: Figuring out the path forward for Ceddanne Rafaela and the Red Sox outfield

© Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Aug 7, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (43) makes a diving catch during the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to Ceddanne Rafaela, fans seem to either see a future All-Star or someone best suited for a super-utility role. There’s no in-between. For anyone who will bring up his ridiculous defense in center field, you’ll get the reminder that he’s a threat to chase any pitch out of the zone and the last guy to ever draw a walk.

None of that is hyperbole either. While Rafaela was forced to handle shortstop for a significant portion of the season with Trevor Story down, it was clear when he was in center field that he had a gear very few guys could reach. He finished 8th in MLB in Outfield DRS (12) with only 634.1 innings, but had his overall defensive metrics brought down due to a steep learning curve as an everyday shortstop (-2 DRS, -7 OAA).

Before Rafaela’s 2024 season, no player in MLB history had ever played 60 games at both shortstop and center field. The closest players to ever accomplish the feat were Chris Taylor in 2018 and Mickey Stanley in 1969. That’s special territory for a 23-year-old rookie, but one that points to an extremely rare level of athleticism and versatility, especially when factoring in his short cameos at third base, second base, and right field last season.

Throughout the offseason, the Red Sox front office has made it seem like they’re not too focused on Rafaela playing anywhere besides center field. Craig Breslow has said his preference is to keep him there as much as possible. But it’s fair to wonder how possible that will be for Alex Cora, especially with Roman Anthony having already torn up Triple-A at the end of 2024.

Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, and Roman Anthony could be the best outfield in all of baseball for years to come with all 3 expected to be above-average on both sides of the ball. Abreu is fresh off a Gold Glove in the hardest right field in the sport, Duran has turned into an elite defender, and Anthony has shown the ability to handle center field throughout the minors, even if he’s best suited for a corner long-term.

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  That turns the focus to the offensive side of things, which is where Rafaela’s biggest red flags come into play. Across 152 games last season, he hit .246/.274/.390/.664 with 15 HR, 23 2B, and 5 3B. It left him with a 79 wRC+, which was the 4th-worst mark for any qualified regular last season, only trailing Maikel Garcia, Orlando Arcia, and Bryan De La Cruz.

  Diving beyond the surface numbers, the most concerning aspect was Rafaela’s swing-decisions, which was always the biggest issue with his offensive profile. He finished in the 1st percentile for Chase Rate, BB%, and xOBP. Beyond that, he struggled to make hard contact with an Average Exit Velocity ranking in the 12th percentile and a K% in the 22nd percentile.

  While Rafaela’s defense has a chance to be generational, it’s going to be hard to justify playing him over any of the names above if his bat isn’t close to league-average. His closest comparisons in terms of batted ball data last season were Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Addison Barger, Bryan De La Cruz, Edmundo Sosa, and Christian Bethancourt. None of those guys are confused for big league regulars right now, but Sosa stands out as an intriguing example of what a versatile bench piece can do for a contender on a yearly basis.

  Rafaela does offer the Red Sox another right-handed bat, which feels crucial with where the lineup is at in terms of balancing right now. But even then, Rafaela struggled badly against LHP last season with a 62 wRC+. It’s hard to justify a strict platoon with him or Abreu, especially with Rob Refsnyder on the roster.

  Now, many might cite Rafaela’s extension from last spring as a reason he can’t be on the bench, but I don’t fall into the camp. He’s carrying a $6.25 MM AAV on his 8-year, $50 MM deal. That’s exactly what Harrison Bader signed for with the Twins earlier this week, which won’t include a starting role, but he’ll offer his typical elite defense in center field.

  FOX Sports: MLB on X (formerly Twitter): "10 / 10 catch for Ceddanne Rafaela! 🥇(via @RedSox)pic.twitter.com/AAxDAFOgVT / X"

  10 / 10 catch for Ceddanne Rafaela! 🥇(via @RedSox)pic.twitter.com/AAxDAFOgVT

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  © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

  My guess is Anthony will likely start the season at Triple-A for a short period of time with Kristian Campbell in the big leagues, so Rafaela will have a chance to prove himself as an everyday regular. That puts a lot of pressure on him to show that he’s taken a significant step forward if he wants to push the Red Sox into some uncomfortable conversations about Abreu or maybe even Duran down the road. My hopes aren’t high of Rafaela ever showing he deserves playing time over those two, but that’s what’s at play.

  Rafaela has also reportedly put on some weight this offseason, so maybe that helps him tap into some more power and not run out of gas down the stretch. His 33 wRC+ in September was by far his worst of any month. June-July ended up being Rafaela’s peak as a rookie, where he posted a 110 wRC+, but it was heavily aided by a .385 BABIP.

  On the basepaths, Rafaela offers upside with 87th percentile Sprint Speed, yet he can get a bit wild at times. He was able to steal 19 bags but he was also caught 10 different times as well. You can see the path to him being in the realm of a 20/20 guy if things click right, which has real value with elite defense. That puts you into the Michael A. Taylor tier of players, which isn’t going to beat out the likes of Duran, Abreu, or Anthony anytime soon.

  Taking away Rafaela’s versatility feels like you’re deleting what might be his second best tool. In the last few seasons, we’ve seen an injury or two make or break seasons for the Red Sox and having a guy like Rafaela always ready to step-in could go a long way with a fully fleshed out roster. Not to mention, he’ll always be a defensive replacement or pinch-runner late in matchups. Manuel Margot started 70 games for the Twins last season, but appeared in 129 total while serving in a similar role, despite not being very good at it.

  Tyler Milliken on X (formerly Twitter): "Some catch probability numbers on Ceddanne Rafaela this season: 1) Rafaela diving forward to rob Cal Raleigh - 35%2) Game-saving grab against Shea Langeliers - 50%3) Leap against the wall to take a hit away from Brent Rooker - 95% pic.twitter.com/qbc8hbdtr1 / X"

  Some catch probability numbers on Ceddanne Rafaela this season: 1) Rafaela diving forward to rob Cal Raleigh - 35%2) Game-saving grab against Shea Langeliers - 50%3) Leap against the wall to take a hit away from Brent Rooker - 95% pic.twitter.com/qbc8hbdtr1

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  © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

  This isn’t supposed to be some tear down of Rafaela. I often get categorized as a hater of the player because I don’t believe it’s a profile that should be awarded an automatic starting position moving forward. If he can’t start targeting the right pitches to do damage on, then he’s going to continue to induce weak contact, which leaves him as a victim of whether his BABIP luck is going to be good or not.

  Rafaela is compared to Ezequiel Tovar quite a bit because both have similar concerns in terms of chase and swing-and-miss. Tovar is a year younger than Rafaela and just posted a 3.7 fWAR for the Rockies because of his elite defense at shortstop. He was only able to muster a 95 wRC+ while playing 81 home games at Coors Field (Tovar was awful at home, weirdly enough). Still, that was significantly better than what Rafaela was able to do in 2024 because Tovar was able to barrel up balls more frequently, tap into his power, and become an extra-base machine. It seems like the Red Sox are hoping to get Rafaela stronger instead of trying to completely re-work his approach again.

  You only have to go back to early September to remember that Cora is a believer in Rafaela offensively. “He’s going to be a good offensive player… as a 23-year-old kid, he’s learning at this level.” Just like last year, he will need to make his mark early with the Roman Empire looking to take over the city of Boston. Hell, he could be the first victim. That shouldn’t be bad news for the Red Sox, if anything, it might be putting Rafaela in the best position to succeed moving forward.

  Tyler Milliken on X (formerly Twitter): "EVERY DAMN DAY CEDDANNE RAFAELA!JAW. ON. THE. FLOOR.5% catch probability. pic.twitter.com/fjd2ZhjSut / X"

  EVERY DAMN DAY CEDDANNE RAFAELA!JAW. ON. THE. FLOOR.5% catch probability. pic.twitter.com/fjd2ZhjSut