Socci’s View: In a game of inches, the margin of error can be smaller than that…on the field and in the draft

Within minutes of the final play of the first game of 2024, after seeing Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson shuffle back, spin around, slide forward and sling a dart to high-leaping tight end Isaiah Likely in the back of the end zone and watching counterpart John Harbaugh frantically signal for a two-point try for a Ravens' win and hearing referee Shawn Hochuli confirm what he saw upon re-watching the replay that erased the apparent score, Andy Reid opened his post-game presser by understating the obvious. “When they say it’s a game of inches,” said Reid, fresh off the frenetic finish of his Chiefs' 27-20 win culminating in Kansas City with an officials’ review that clearly showed Likely's right foot barely touching the end line, “it might be shorter than that.” As in a big toe, in this case. Or the width of a Gene Steratore index card in another. One the margin between a touchdown scored or denied, the second a folded-paper-thin difference between a first down for Dallas or turnover on downs to Oakland (which, by the way, Steratore ignored in awarding the Cowboys a fresh set of downs in their 2017 victory over the Raiders). Those are plays. What about players? Well, would you believe that less than an inch and a half might – emphasis on might, as in maybe, possibly, potentially – determine whether the Patriots or another tackle-needy team take LSU’s Will Campbell near the very top of next month’s NFL Draft? Of course, you would. After all, the tale of Campbell’s tape, with his arms measuring 32 ⅝ inches, is one of the top storylines from this year’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis.  Campbell was consensus All-America and won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy last season. He was ranked sixth, as the top offensive lineman among the best 100 prospects on analyst Dane Brugler’s pre-Combine ‘Draft Board' for The Athletic. ESPN’s Mel Kiper concurred in his Feb. 25 rankings; Campbell, at No. 10, was the first tackle on his list, too. At 6-foot-5 – and ⅞ of another inch — Campbell weighed in at the Combine at 319 pounds and, remarkably for someone his size, ran the 40-yard dash in sub-five seconds (4.98). His vertical leap rose to 32 inches and his broad jump reached 9 feet, 5 inches. Obviously, he has an athletic body to go with an impressive body of work – 38 starts, 2,553 offensive snaps and, according to Pro Football Focus, only four sacks allowed as a collegian. But those arms… Ideally, the arm length of an NFL tackle is closer to 34 inches than the 33 inches that Campbell came so close to. For the record, his hands (9 1/2 inches) are also small by NFL scouting standards. Minuscule as the margins are, Campbell was left to play defense in Indianapolis when asked where he should line up on offense in the NFL. Though others foresee him as a future guard, Campbell thinks of himself, still, as a tackle. “You can go look at my tape, there's not one play on there that when I get beat you say that's because he has shorter arms,” Campbell said at the Combine. “Obviously I don't have stereotypical offensive tackle arms. I'm aware of that. People have to nitpick something. I've heard it all my career. When I was coming out of high school, the college coaches all said the same thing. I proved them wrong. It's something I anticipate doing again.” Back in 2018, then Patriots offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, who coached tackles Matt Light (he of 33 ½-inch arms) and Sebastian Vollmer (33 ¼ inches), said that arm length “is way overrated.” At the time, the future team Hall of Famer, now retired, was responding to a question related to a third tackle, Isaiah Wynn, who the Pats picked 23rd in that year’s draft.  Wynn’s arms were an inch longer than Campbell’s, though the ex-Georgia lineman stood shorter (6-2 ¾) and had smaller hands (8 ½ inches). Putting it kindly, Wynn didn’t work out like Light or Vollmer. How much size, or lack thereof, versus injuries, of which there were many, led to Wynn’s disappointing career in New England is unknown. Whatever the case, it was a risky pick for the position that turned out to be a poor choice in the long run. It was also a late-first round selection by a defending conference champion that eventually won the Super Bowl without an injured Wynn at the end of his rookie campaign.  In Campbell, we’re talking about a guy who figures to be summoned from the green room to the stage next to Roger Goodell early on night one. But how early? And in what cap, holding what jersey? According to various reports by local beat writers last week, including MassLive’s Karen Guregian and Mark Daniels and the Boston Herald’s Andrew Callahan and Doug Kyed, Campbell is being strongly considered by the Pats for No. 4 overall. Head coach Mike Vrabel, who used to compete against Light in practice, believes that one’s arm measurement is less important than one's arm usage.   “I think arm length is good only up until the point to where you use it,” Vrabel said at the Combine. “If guys are sitting there and they’re catching or they’re clamping or their hands are outside, they’re not as long as maybe they would be if you punched.” In Tennessee, Vrabel’s best tandem of tackles were Jack Conklin (right) and Taylor Lewan (left). Both were drafted in the first round before his arrival in Nashville. Conklin had 35-inch arms and 10 ⅜-inch hands. Lewan had 33 ⅞-inch arms and 9 ¼-inch hands. In Vrabel’s final draft as Titans head coach, Tennessee chose Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski 10th overall. Skoronski, a tackle in the Big Ten, has played only guard in the NFL. Nine days away from the new league year and annual rush on unrestricted free agents, the Patriots figure to be in the market for the help they desperately need at offensive tackle. Baltimore’s Ronnie Stanley and Minnesota’s Cam Robinson are presumed targets.  It’s possible that by draft day, Campbell won’t even be a real consideration for the Pats should they choose fourth. And even if the need for a starting offensive tackle remains, their deficiencies at other positions might be better filled by better prospects.  What do you think of Georgia edge rusher Jalon Walker or Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham? How about Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan, assuming Colorado’s Travis Hunter is off the board? Nothing against anyone whose arms don't measure up to the NFL’s ideal length by the width of a few ruled lines on Steratore’s index card (as someone whose inseam is shorter than Campbell’s shirt sleeve) I’ve been leaning toward Walker or Graham. Assuming, by the way, that neither Hunter nor Penn State’s Abdul Carter will be around beyond the third pick. Of course, what do I know? Graham reported to the Combine 24 pounds under his listed weight at Michigan, raising concerns about his ability to adapt to the NFL. Being a healthy underweight is a problem I’d love to have. It’s not so great, however, when your job will involve taking on NFL interior linemen. This I do know: whoever winds up in a Pats’ cap alongside Goodell the night of April 24 in Green Bay best not be a reach. They have to hit on this year’s No.1 pick as well as they did last year by selecting Drake Maye, because in a game of inches the margin for error when picking fourth overall is smaller than that.  Bob Socci has called play-by-play for the Patriots Radio Network on 98.5 The Sports Hub since 2013. Follow him on Bluesky and Instagram.