Will Alex Ovechkin’s NHL goalscoring record ever be broken?

Scoring his 895th regular season goal last Sunday against the Islanders, Washington Capitals legend Alexander Ovechkin surpassed Wayne Gretzky as the new NHL all-time goalscoring leader. The 39-year-old has played 1,487 games through 20 NHL seasons, giving him 0.6 goals per game for his career.

Ovechkin's feat is worlds ahead of most players in league history, and it could be a record here to stay. However, which current NHL players could theoretically outscore him?

Let's begin with the local star. David Pastrnak is certainly a generational scorer for the Boston Bruins. The 28-year-old has 11 seasons in the NHL under his belt, playing in 753 games, and scoring 389 goals (0.52 goals per game). He has the 13th most career goals of active NHL players.

Despite the Bruins having a down year, Pastrnak's production has not wavered in 2024-25. He has fifth most goals in the NHL (41) and the fourth most points (100) with three games still remaining in the season. This marks Pastrnak's third season in a row with 100-plus points and fourth straight with 40-plus goals.

At his current pace, Pastrnak will fall short of Ovechkin's record through 1,487 games (he's on track for 768 goals in as many games). But, his career started slow - compared to now - and he spent parts of his first two seasons in the AHL.

To exceed Ovechkin and reach 896 goals in 1,487 games, Pastrnak would need to score 56.6 goals per 82 games, which would take about nine seasons' worth of games. Although that is a high bar, it's not necessarily unattainable. He would be required to have multiple 60+ goal seasons, which is not completely out of the question - he scored 61 goals in 2022-23.

Pastrnak is a ways away from catching Ovechkin, but he has the ability to throw it into gear and make a run at the goal record.

Auston Matthews is arguably the most likely player to best Ovechkin's record. The Toronto Maple Leafs' captain is younger than most guys on the list, but he has the 12th most goals of all active NHLers (398).

Matthews scored at an impressive rate, registering nearly 400 goals in just nine seasons, or 625 games (0.64 goals per game). Matthews is having a slight down year in goalscoring, only potting 30, but he's missed time with only 63 games played.

For the most part, Matthews is an electric scorer with two 60-plus goal seasons - he scored 69 in 2023-24. If Matthews can continue his goal scoring rate of about 0.64 goals per game, he will surpass Ovechkin by quite a bit - he's on pace for 947 goals in as many games (1,487).

Obviously, he has a long way to go, but Matthews' goalscoring ability is a true talent. Considering his age and the rate at which he beats goal tenders, Matthews certainly has a very good chance at breaking Ovechkin's 895-goal record.

Connor McDavid is the ultimate star of hockey, and arguably the sport's most purely talented player since Wayne Gretzky. Naturally, he should be considered as a guy who could break the scoring record, but the thing is, he's behind in goals.

Through 709 career NHL games, the 28-year-old Edmonton Oilers captain "only" has 361 goals, which is less than Pastrnak, Matthews, and Draisaitl. Fortunately for McDavid is he can never be counted out because he has more skill than anyone - simply put he's just that good. But, to catch Ovechkin he would need to throw it into another gear.

What's one reason why McDavid has fewer goals? Well, one explanation is Leon Draisaitl scores them all. The other Edmonton Oiler star, Draisaitl has scored 50-plus goals in four of his 11 seasons in the NHL.

He's played 790 NHL games and scored 399 goals, which is behind Matthews' place but a good rate nonetheless. Plus, he had a slower start on the scoresheet for the first few years of his career. He did not score 30 goals in one year during his first four seasons, but in his fifth he blew up for 50 goals and has not look back.

So, Draisaitl is in a better position than Pastrnak and McDavid, but not quite as prime as Matthews. Regardless, if he can put up a few more 50 goal seasons - which admittedly is not an easy ask - he could find himself in striking distance of Ovechkin. Also consider the McDavid aspect, unlike some guys, Draisaitl has a large advantage just because he has a superstar facilitating the puck.

Connor Bedard, Blackhawks

For Connor Bedard, obviously it's too early to claim he will break the record, but he was the highest touted NHL prospect coming into the league since McDavid. If all pans out for him, Bedard should become an all-time goal scorer.

Through 146 games with the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, the 19-year-old has 42 goals. Obviously that's well behind pace (0.29 goals per game), but with an elite shot and him being so young, who knows Bedard has plenty of career ahead of him to break some records.

Macklin Celebrini, Sharks

The story is the same for San Jose Shark Macklin Celebrini. The 18-year-old has a ton of career ahead of him and the goalscoring ability to make an impact. Through 66 career games as a rookie Celebrini has 24 goals (0.36 goals per game), and one can only assume he will get better. It's too early to call but as a rookie he's shown signs as an elite goalscorer.

Luke Graham is a digital sports content co-op for 98.5 the Sports Hub. He is currently a sophomore at Northeastern University studying communications and media studies. Read all his articles here, and follow him on X @LukeGraham05.