Just as Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers has emerged as arguably the best hitter in all of baseball, the team appears to playing an all-too-familiar game of lowball.
According to a new column from Alex Speier at the Boston Globe, the Red Sox used another player’s recent contract extension as a “basis for discussions” with Devers, who is on track to become a free agent after the 2023 season. That comp would be Braves first baseman Matt Olson, who recently signed an eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta – an average annual value of just $21 million.
Here’s how Speier described the situation:
According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter.
The Red Sox may not necessarily be wrong about eventually moving Devers to first base and/or DH. Olson is a two-time Gold Glove winner at first, and Devers will likely never reach that level defensively.
At the same time, Devers has shown improvement in the field in 2022. His 0.9 defensive runs saved above average ranks eighth among qualifying third basemen, a better mark than the Astros’ Alex Bregman (0.7). He’s cut back on the fielding errors, with just four at the All-Star break, after making 12 in 2021.
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Despite all that, what actually makes the Olson comparison ridiculous is their offensive production. Olson is no slouch, to be fair. In 2021, he launched 39 home runs with a .911 OPS in his final season with the Oakland A’s. But in his first year with the Braves, his OPS dipped to .827, and he posted a WAR of just 1.8 in 94 games.
Contrast that with Devers, who has logged a .924 OPS in his past 242 games, from 2021 through the first half of 2022. Devers leads the American League in hits (112), runs created (78), and offensive WAR (4.6). He’s second in the league in batting average (.324), runs (62), and total bases (208). He’s third in OPS (.980) and slugging (.601).
In other words, Devers is in the conversation for the title of “Best Position Player In Baseball.” It’s basically Devers, the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, the Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt, and the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez.
Olson leads the National League in … plate appearances. And doubles, to be fair. But he’s no Devers. And for the Red Sox to directly compare their homegrown superstar third baseman to Olson could reasonably be considered an insult.
Not to mention, Devers is still just 25 years old, three years younger than Olson.
It’s understandable that the Red Sox wouldn’t just lead right out with a top-of-the-market offer. Even someone with no business acumen whatsoever can figure that part out. But based on the reports out of Fenway Park, with both Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox seem to be keeping their wallets frustratingly tight.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JUNE 12: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox flips his bat after hitting a two-run home run against the Seattle Mariners to take a 2-0 lead during the eighth inning at T-Mobile Park on June 12, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
Even as a long-term first baseman, Devers should land a deal well north of $21 million per season, certainly on the open market. That’s what makes the whole thing annoying for fans. If the Red Sox won’t pay this guy, who will they ever pay?!
Devers is eligible to enter arbitration for one more year, before 2023. Even if he wins, the Red Sox will likely get quite the bargain. Devers is making a relatively paltry $11.2 million in 2022.
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In the meantime, Devers will start at third base for the American League in the 2022 All-Star Game on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium. Assuming he stays healthy, he’ll have a chance to grab an MVP trophy at the end of the season, and to power the Red Sox in October. It’s likely Devers only gets more expensive from here.
Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Have a news tip, question, or comment for Matt? Yell at him on Twitter @mattdolloff and follow him on Instagram @realmattdolloff. You can also email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
Mazz: Three management decisions that have undermined the 2022 Red Sox
When things go awry, we often point fingers. And in the case of the 2022 Red Sox, the three biggest failures of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom are pretty easy to identify.
First base. Right field. The bullpen.
And not necessarily in that order.
As usual, the devil is in the details. But if you’re looking for specific reasons the Red Sox are floundering nearly 100 games into the 2022 season, we’ll break down the particulars for you.
They’re a disaster at first base – and have been for much of two seasons
CLEVELAND, OH – JUNE 26: Franchy Cordero #16 of the Boston Red Sox reacts to striking out during the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on June 26, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
That’s right. A disaster. And that’s not hyperbole. Last year, after bringing in Kyle Schwarber and shoehorning him into first base, the Sox got some much-needed production at the position.
Just the same, they finished last in baseball in defensive runs saved. (Translation: they were the worst defensive team in the game at the position.)
So what did they do? They let Schwarber go and didn’t replace him in any capacity. The tandem of Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero ranks 30th in baseball in OPS and 30th in runs saved. Dead last in both. Social services would call this neglect.
Right field? Wrong choice
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 31: Jackie Bradley Jr. #19 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out during the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Fenway Park on May 31, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
If you’re looking for a transaction that symbolizes the organizational mindset of the 2022 Red Sox, look no further than the change they made in right field.
Hunter Renfroe will never been confused with Dwight Evans, but the Sox finished fourth in the AL in OPS with him at the position last season. Trading Renfroe made sense to capitalize on his 31-homer season, but the return did not. The Sox got a pair of low-level minor leaguers (Alex Binelas and David Hamilton) while taking on Jackie Bradley and his contract.
The result? The Sox rank dead last in the AL in OPS in RF. Bradley is batting .150 in his last 29 games with 12 hits, just two of which went for extra bases. He has one home run for the season.
The Garrett Whitlock debacle
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JUNE 01: Starting pitcher Garrett Whitlock #72 of the Boston Red Sox throws against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Fenway Park on June 01, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
As has been the case at first base, the Red Sox have had problems in the bullpen for two seasons. Last year, according to Fangraphs, Whitlock ranked 16th among all major league relievers in WAR. The only other Sox relievers in the top 100 were Matt Barnes (who was awful in the second half) and Adam Ottavino (who was let go).
So what did the Sox do? They inexplicably put Whitlock in the starting rotation and turned their bullpen fire into a raging inferno. They are just 19-of-39 in save opportunities this season and, adding further insult, Whitlock got injured as a starter. He returned to the relief corps over the weekend and looked dominant, contributing mightily to the team’s only win.
NEXT: J.D. Martinez shouts out Home Run Derby champion Juan Soto