New England Patriots

New England Patriots

New England Patriots

ARLINGTON, TX - APRIL 26: A video board displays the text "ON THE CLOCK" for the New England Patriots during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The New England Patriots head into the 2024 NFL Draft with eight scheduled draft picks. Starting with the third pick they own one selection in each round, plus an extra pick in the sixth round after trading quarterback Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

However, the Patriots likely won’t end up drafted at all eight assigned draft slots. They’ve made at least one trade in every draft going back to 2000, with the exception of 2004.

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This year, there’s been as much speculation around the Patriots making a trade as any. Whether it’s moving down from the third overall pick, up or down from No. 34, etc., it seems like a trade-friendly year.

When trying to project these trades, one tool can be the trade value chart. Each NFL team has its own chart that values each pick at a certain point value, with the idea being to find trades where the points on each side are at least close to even. Some of those charts have been estimated and can be found on the internet.

However, the trade chart isn’t always a perfect predictor. That’s especially true at the top of the draft, where trading for a quarterback can skew the values.

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Instead, the more reliable predictor of future trades can actually be past trades. Looking at what similar picks went for in recent drafts – especially in similar situations – can be a big help.

So, with the draft a week out, what former trades from recent years should Patriots fans be aware of? Let’s take a look, focusing on trades where a pick at or very close to a scheduled selection was the main or one of the main assets dealt (so we won’t include trades where the 231st pick was thrown in with multiple first being dealt).

We’re not including trades that involved players, or picks that were dealt in previous years. There are some trades here that the Patriots don’t have all the capital to pull off, but most are within adding one or two Day 3 picks, which could be done before the draft or in the earlier stages.

  • 3rd overall pick

    2023: The Cardinals traded 3 and 105 to the Houston Texans for 12, 33, a future first, and a future third. It’s worth noting the top tier of quarterbacks was already off the board at this point, which can impact the cost. That won’t be the case this year between Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy.

    2021: The Dolphins traded 3 to the 49ers for 12, two future firsts, and a future third. This trade was done with a quarterback (Trey Lance) in mind. If the Patriots do want to move back this year this is an important move to know, especially with the Vikings at 11 looking for a QB.

    2018: The Colts traded 3 to the Jets for 6, 37, 49, and a future second. This trade was also done with a quarterback (Sam Darnold) in mind. Moving down to six is another option for the Patriots this year, but the Giants don’t have to second-round picks so one side would need to get creative.

  • 34th overall pick

    Overall note: There are a ton of trades that happen in this range of the draft. That’s because teams get to recollect and reset their board after the first round, before Day 2. They may target specific players they expected to go in the first round who didn’t. Given that, the 34th pick should have some real value if the Patriots want to move it (and don’t use it to trade back up into the first).

    2023: The Cardinals traded 33 and 81 to the Texans for 41, 72, and a future third. The Patriots’ third-round pick is 68, which is significantly more valuable than 81.

    2023: The Cardinals traded 12, 34, and 168 to the Lions for 6 and 81. So if the Patriots trade back down to 11 with the Vikings, they would – in theory – have the capital to get back up to 6 based on this trade. That’s exactly what this trade was for the Cardinals last year.

    2023: The Colts traded 35 to the Raiders for 38 and 141. The Patriots could expect to pick up an extra fifth if they move back slightly in the second round.

    2022: The Jaguars traded 33, 106, and 180 to the Buccaneers for 27. Mirroring this trade could be a way for the Patriots to get back into the first round without losing a top-100 pick.

    2022: The Vikings traded 34 to the Packers for 53 and 59. The Packers have two second-round picks this year (41 and 58), so a similar kind of trade could be an option.

    2022: The Jets traded 35, 69, and 163 to the Titans for 26 and 101. Another way the Patriots could get back into the first round.

    2022: The Giants traded 36 to the Jets for 38 and 146.

    2022: The Giants traded 38 to Atlanta for 43 and 114.

    2021: The Falcons traded 35 and 219 to the Broncos for 40 and 114.

    2021: The Bengals traded 38 to the Patriots for 46, 122, and 139. This is the trade the Patriots made to move up for Christian Barmore – this time they’d be on the other side of it.

    2021: The Panthers traded 39 and 151 to the Bears for 52, 83, and 204.

    2021: The Giants traded 42 to the Dolphins for 50 and a future third.

    2020: The Chargers traded 37 and 71 to the Patriots for 23. This was the Kyle Dugger trade, with LA moving up for linebacker Kenneth Murray.

    2019: The Raiders traded 35, 140, and 235 to the Jaguars for 38 and 109.

    2019: The Giants traded 37, 132, and 142 to the Seahawks for 30.

    2019: The Seahawks traded 37 to the Panthers for 47 and 77.

    2019: The Raiders traded 38 to the Bills for 40 and 158.

    2018: The Raiders traded 41 to the Titans for 57 and 89.

    2018: The Bengals traded 46 and 100 to the Chiefs for 54 and 78. The Patriots have the capital to make this trade, but they should either be looking for top-end talent or to add picks rather than net movement at this point (ex. if they’re going to move down on Day 2, it should be to add picks).

  • 68th overall pick

    2023: The Texans traded 65, 188, and 230 to the Eagles for 62.

    2023: The Broncos traded 68 and 138 to the Lions for 63 and 183. This could be a way for the Patriots to move up slightly on Day 2.

    2023: The Rams traded 69 and 191 to the Texans for 73 and 161. Another potential minor move back for the Patriots, to jump from the sixth to the fifth round.

    2022: The Texans traded 68, 108, and 124 to the Browns for 44. A move-up option for the Patriots in the third round.

    2021: The Eagles traded 70 to the Panthers for 73 and 191.

    2021: The Broncos traded 71 to the Giants for 76 and 164.

    2020: The Panthers traded 69 and 148 to the Seahawks for 64.

    2020: The Patriots traded 71 and 98 to the Ravens for 60 and 129. The Patriots moved up to take Josh Uche.

    2019: The Buccaneers traded 70 to the Rams for 94 and 99.

    2019: The Patriots traded 73 and 205 to the Bears for 87, 162, and a future fourth.

    2018: The Ravens traded 65 to the Raiders for 75, 152, and 212.

    2018: The Colts traded 67 and 178 to the Browns for 64.

  • 103rd pick

    General note: This is the trickiest pick to project based on historical context, because sometimes it falls on Day 2 while sometimes it’s an early Day 3 pick depending on the awarding of comp picks. Like with pick 34, this can impact the value. Picks in italics were Day 3 picks, as the Patriots’ 103rd selection is this year.

    2023: The 4ers traded 102, 164, and 222 to the Vikings for 87.

    2023: The Bears traded 103 to the Saints for 115 and 165.

    2023: The Texans traded 104 and 203 to the Raiders for 109 and 174.

    2023: The Texans traded 105 to the Eagles for a future third-round pick. Based on the current makeup of their roster the Patriots probably won’t want to make less picks in 2024, but this is still one to keep in mind if the board doesn’t fall their way.

    2021: The Texans traded 109, 158, and a future fourth to the Panthers for 89.

    2021: The Panthers traded 109 to the Titans for 126, 166, and 232.

    2020: The Patriots traded 100, 139, and 172 to the Raiders for 91 and 159. This was to move up and draft Devin Asiasi.

    2020: The Jets traded 101 to the Patriots for 125, 129, and a future sixth. The Patriots moved up to draft Dalton Keene.

    2020: The Vikings traded 105 to the Saints for 130, 169, 203, and 244. If the Patriots want to seriously increase their overall draft capital, this would be the kind of move to target.

    2020: The Lions traded 109 to the Raiders for 121 and 172.

    2019: The Rams traded 101 and 133 to the Patriots for 97 and 162.

    2019: The Ravens traded 102, 191, and 193 to the Vikings for 93.

    2019: The 49ers traded 104 to the Bengals for 110, 183, and 198.

    2019: The Jets traded 105 to the Saints for 116 and 168.

    2019: The Raiders traded 109 to the Colts for 129 and 135.

    2019: The Bills traded 112 and 131 to Washington for 96.

    2018: The Buccaneers traded 102 and 180 for 94.

    2018: The Patriots traded 105 for 114 and 178.

  • 137th pick

    2023: The Patriots traded the 135 pick to the Las Vegas Raiders for 144 and 214.

    2023: The Bills traded 137 to the Commanders for 150 and 215.

    2023: The Colts traded 141 to the Vikings for 158 and 211.

    2022: The Panthers traded 137 and a future third to the Patriots for 94.

    2021: The Ravens traded 136 and 210 to the Cardinals for 160 and a future fourth.

    2021: The Buccaneers traded 137 and 217 to the Seahawks for 129.

    2021: The Vikings traded 143 to the Raiders for 162 and 200.

    2020: The Dolphins traded 136 and 141 to the Texans for 111.

    2020: The Texans traded 136, 248, and 250 to the Rams for 126.

    2019: The Patriots traded 134 and 243 to the Rams for 162 and 167.

    2019: The Falcons traded 137 and 230 to the Raiders for 135. This is a trade the Patriots could be on either side of.

    2019: The Cowboys traded 136 to the Bengals for 149 and 213.

    2018: The Colts traded 140 to the Raiders for 159 and 185.

  • 180th overall pick

    2023: The Chiefs traded 178 to the Cowboys for a future fifth.

    2022: The Broncos traded 179 and 234 to the Packers for 171

    2022: The Lions traded 181 to the Eagles for 188 and 237. Given how little a seven-pick margin means this deep in the draft, and the fact the Patriots also own pick 193, they could be on either side of this trade.

    2022: The Texans traded 183 and 245 to the Patriots for 170.

    2021: The Bills traded 174 to the Texans for 203 and 212.

    2021: The Texans traded 174 and 233 to the Rams for 170.

    2021: The Chiefs traded 175 and 207 to the Jets for 162 and 226.

    2020: The Colts traded 182 to the Patriots for 212 and 213. New England ended up selecting Mike Onwenu after moving up.

    2018: The Vikings traded 180 and 204 to the Jets for 167 and 225.

    2018: The Rams traded 183 and 217 to the Broncos for 160.

  • 193rd overall pick

    2023: The Texans traded 191 to the Eagles for 230 and 248.

    2023: The Eagles traded 191 for a future fifth-round pick.

    2022: The Jaguars traded 188 and 198 to the Eagles for 154.

    2020: The Bears traded 196, 200, and 233 to the Eagles for 173 and 227.

    2018: the Rams traded 194 to the Falcons for 244 and 256.

    2018: The Rams traded 197 and 256 to Washington for 205 and 231.

    2018: The Patriots traded 198 to the Chiefs for 233 and 243.

  • 231st overall pick

    2023: The Browns traded 229 for a future sixth.

    2020: The Titans traded 237 to the Chiefs for a future sixth.

    2019: The Jaguars traded 236 to the Seahawks for a future sixth.

    2018: The Patriots traded 233 to the Eagles for 250 and a future seventh. The Eagles used this pick to select future starting tackle Jordan Mailata, who at the time had only played pro rugby.

  • Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at [email protected].

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