Just so we’re all on the same page here, we want to make sure you understand what you’re currently witnessing. With last week’s record of 8-7-1, the Felger and Mazz Pick It and Stick It sheet is now 24-23-1 for the season, averaging precisely eight wins per week. If you’re in an office pool where you are required to pick all 16 NFL games every week, you already know that is hardly anything to sneeze at.
For example: in the current Sports Hub office pool, the leaders are currently averaging eight wins per week. Last year, the winner averaged 8.3. We suspect you will find similar metrics in any office pool in any corner of America, which is to say that most people are wrong far more than they are right.
So go ahead and mock us if you choose.
But, like the fame Felger and Mazz Big Board, our method works.
The Board knows.
That said, we are now likely to get our tails kicked in Week 4 because we had the audacity to pound our chests a little.
Without further delay, then, here are Felger and Mazz’s Pick It and Stick It selections for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season:
Last week: 8-7-1.
Season to date: 24-23-1.
(Odds courtesy of the DraftKings sportsbook as of 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 29.)
Miami (+3.5) at Cincinnati (Thursday night)
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 25: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins sits on the turf during the first half of the game against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
I have a general rule when it comes to the NFL: most teams aren’t as good or as bad as you think. The point? The Dolphins aren’t really a 3-0 team and the Bengals certainly aren’t 1-2. Add in the fact that this is a Thursday night game and Miami is traveling and, well, you get the idea. Shockingly, Murray has actually considered at least some of these factors and picked the Bengals. Felger likes Miami. I like Joe Burrow. Pick: Cincinnati.
New England (+9) at Green Bay
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 26: Quarterback Brian Hoyer #5 of the New England Patriots throws against the Las Vegas Raiders during their preseason game at Allegiant Stadium on August 26, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders defeated the Patriots 23-6. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
This feels like an appropriate time to cite the words of the Big Boi, Greg Bedard, who once famously uttered the following: don’t sleep on Brian Hoyer. Murray is the outlier here, but let’s focus on the facts. Right now, the drop from Mac Jones to Hoyer doesn’t feel that big. The Packers have had trouble scoring and their best weapons are in the backfield. The safest bet here is probably the under 40.5, but we don’t do over-unders here. You are reading correctly. The show – minus Murray – likes the Pats to cover. Pick: New England.
Minnesota (-2.5) vs. New Orleans (London)
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – SEPTEMBER 25: Jameis Winston #2 of the New Orleans Saints dives to recover a fumbled snap against the Carolina Panthers during the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
As you surely know, the Patriots have turned the ball over eight times this year, second-most in the NFL behind only one team. You know who that team is? The Saints, thanks at least in part to Jameis Winston, who has been a turnover machine his whole career. I actually like the Saints in this neutral-site game, but I’ve been overruled. Pick: Minnesota.
Buffalo (-3) at Baltimore
ORCHARD PARK, NY – DECEMBER 08: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills shakes hands with Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens after the game at New Era Field on December 8, 2019 in Orchard Park, New York. Baltimore defeats Buffalo 24-17. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)
The Ravens are coming off a high-scoring win over the Patriots. The Bills are coming off a brutal loss at Miami. Surprisingly, Felger is picking the Ravens, which doesn’t make sense to me. The Bills feel like the better, more well-rounded team and Baltimore’s defense gave up 26 points to the Patriots – and it should have been more. Murray and I are looking for the Bills to be angry. Pick: Buffalo.
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Philadelphia
ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 27: Head coach Doug Pederson of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks on during the first half of the preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 27, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Let’s be honest: only the disaster that was Urban Meyer could make Doug Pederson and that stupid visor look like Bill Walsh. That said, the Jags feel legit and Trevor Lawrence has taken the Year 2 jump that we expected out of Mac Jones. Funny how that happens when you get decent coaching. Pederson may not win in his return to Philly, but Murray and I believe he’ll put up a good fight. Pick: Jacksonville.
Cleveland (-1) at Atlanta
CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 22: Jacoby Brissett #7 of the Cleveland Browns looks to pass during the third quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium on September 22, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
If you listen to Greg Bedard’s weekly segment on Tuesdays, you know that we always have a Toolbag of the Week question. In that vein, we give you the Suckbag Game of the Week, which usually involves the Falcons. Murray used to work in Atlanta and seems to keep picking the Falcons every week. Felger and I like the Browns. Jacoby Brissett is one of the top five backups in the league. Pick: Cleveland.
LA Chargers (-5) at Houston
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 25: Rashawn Slater #70 of the Los Angeles Chargers helps up Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers after he was sacked during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at SoFi Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
The Chargers’ season may be on the line here, which is why Murray and Felger are both on the Chargers. Me? I’m a Davis Mills honk. The Texans stink but they’ve been in every game. I usually like home dogs getting more than a field goal and am taking the point. And Justin Herbert’s ribs have to be getting better, right? Pick: Los Angeles.
Seattle (+4) at Detroit
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 25: Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks looks to pass the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Lumen Field on September 25, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
Like a lot of you sheep, Murray has gone all in the Lions because, you know, they don’t suck as bad as they used to. But you know what? They still suck. Meanwhile, do you know Geno Smith ranks seventh in the NFL is passer rating? Great story. Felger and I are taking the points. Pick: Seattle.
NY Jets (+3) at Pittsburgh
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – SEPTEMBER 12: Zach Wilson #2 of the New York Jets looks to pass during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Another candidate for Suckbag Game of the Week. Know what would be interesting? If Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett entered this game and defeated Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who will be making his 2023 debut. How would that make you feel if you’re a Jets fan? Murray like the Jets. Felger and I like like the Steelers. Pick: Pittsburgh.
Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – SEPTEMBER 25: Head coaches Mike Vrabel (L) of the Tennessee Titans and Josh McDaniels of the Las Vegas Raiders interact before the game at Nissan Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Take a good look at the photo above from last week. How you think that conversation went? Vrabel: Can you believe Bill brought back those clowns to coach his quarterback? McDaniels: To tell you the truth, I’m actually kind of insulted by it. We all like the Titans. Pick: Tennessee.
Chicago (+3) at NY Giants
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 26: Head coach Brian Daboll of the New York Giants looks on prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium on September 26, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Time to come clean: I’m obsessed with Brian Daboll, who has brought to the Giants what Joe Judge could not: respectability. Are the Giants great? No. But with this feisty gerbil as coach, they’re playing the best football they have in some time. We all like the Giants. Pick: New York.
Washington (+3.5) at Dallas
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 11: DeMarcus Lawrence #90 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Maybe you believe in Cooper Rush and maybe you don’t. But you know what you should believe in? The Dallas defense. This spread smells funny because Dallas should win this game easily, right? And you should always be worried whenever we all agree. Pick: Dallas.
Arizona (+1.5) at Carolina
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 25: Head coach Kliff Kingsbury of the Arizona Cardinals walks off the field after the game against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Question No. 1: Will Kliff Kingsbury will be the first coach fired this season? And question No. 2: of all the quarterbacks who have signed massive contracts, will Kyler Murray be the biggest bust? I say yes to both. All of like the Panthers, at home, with that defense, against a team traveling from the far west. Pick: Carolina.
Denver (+2.5) at Las Vegas
DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 25: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos is tripped by Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers during the second half at Empower Field At Mile High on September 25, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
Lots of jokes out there about Josh McDaniels (0-3), who, at this rate, could be back coaching the Patriots offense in no time. Just the same, I’m actually picking the Raiders this week because: a.) they’re desperate; and b.) Russell Wilson might be cashed. Unfortunately, I’ve been overruled. Pick: Denver.
Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay (Sunday night)
TAMPA, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 07: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs speak after Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 07, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9.
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)We’re not entirely sure where this game will be played, but here’s what we do know: America will be watching. Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes is must-see TV whether they’re playing in Tampa, Minnesota or on the surface of the moon. Murray likes the Chiefs. Felger likes the Bucs. I like the team with the better defense – the Bucs. Pick: Tampa Bay.
LA Rams (+1.5) at San Francisco (Monday night)
DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 25: Bradley Chubb #55 of the Denver Broncos sacks Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter of a game at Empower Field At Mile High on September 25, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
Remember when the NFC West felt like the best division in football? The Rams have slipped. The Cardinals have slipped. The Seahawks have slipped. Murray picked the Rams in this game, probably just to spite me. I was a Niners fan growing up because they had Joe Montana and because the Patriots sucked. Felger likes the Niners. Oh, and I still love Jimmy G. Pick: San Francisco.
