OK, so we didn’t beat the house in Week 1 – but at least we looked a helluva lot better than the Patriots. And at least we didn’t almost get Mac Jones killed in the process.
Truth be told, picking all 16 games in the NFL is a tall order and a .500 record is nothing to sneeze at. We finished 7-9 and, like any gamblers, suffered a couple of heartbreaking losses. The point is that we were in just about every game. A play here or a play there, as Bill Belichick might argue, and we’d be right there in the winners’ circle with teams like the Seahawks, Giants, Commanders and, yes, Dolphins.
At the very least, we’re better than everyone in the AFC South, where not a single team possesses a single win.
So what is to come in Week 2? Good question. As we all know, September is an extension of the preseason, which means we’re still getting a read on the entire field of NFL teams. This week, Felger, Mazz and Murray all voted on the games and the majority ruled.
Week 1 record vs. spread: 7-9.
Season to date vs. spread: 7-9.
(Week 2 spreads according to Draft Kings at 12:45 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 15.)
LA Chargers (+4) at Kansas City (Thursday night)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 11: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs warms up before the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Cardinals 44-21. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Murray picked the Chiefs and Felger picked the Chargers. I’m going with … the Chargers. Why? As good as Patrick Mahomes looked, he’s 2-2 against the Chargers in the last four games – and both wins required overtime. LA coach Brandon Staley feels like a dope, but the Chargers can get after the QB, which is a prerequisite for beating Kansas City. Nobody can cover anymore. Pass defense is all about getting to the quarterback. Pick: Los Angeles.
New England (-2) at Pittsburgh
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 11: Head coach Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers coaches his team against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Murray likes Pittsburgh. Felger likes Pittsburgh. I like Pittsburgh. This is either: a.) a sure indication that the Patriots will bounce back, or … b.) a worrisome sign that the Patriots stink. In gambling, the majority is often wrong. On Felger & Mazz, contrarianism usually reigns – which makes this strange. I’ll be honest: the fact that we agree on this suggests that you should go with the Pats. Pick: Pittsburgh.
NY Jets (+6.5) at Cleveland
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 11: Outside Linebacker Justin Houston #50 of the Baltimore Ravens forces an incomplete pass on Quarterback Joe Flacco #19 of the New York Jets during the third quarter of the game at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
The Jets lost at home to Baltimore and the Browns won at Carolina, so, naturally, everyone seems to like the Browns. Murray is following the crowd here (shocker) and is picking Cleveland. Felger is going against the grain (shocker) and selecting the Jets. Me? I see two bad teams with two bad quarterbacks (Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco) playing with a fairly sizable spread. I’m taking the points. You’re right, Mike. Pick: New York.
Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 11: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens looks to pass during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Lamar Jackson has bet on himself – and we on Felger & Mazz generally like people who bet on themselves. (Still, if you do the math, Lamar Jackson should have taken the money and the guaranteed $133 million offered by the Ravens.) Miami faced a Patriots team that featured a high school offense last week and the Miami offense really wasn’t that good. We all like the Ravens here. Pick: Baltimore.
Tampa Bay (-2.5) at New Orleans
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 11: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on before the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a split decision! The seemingly-never-satisfied Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the Cowboys last week, which makes Brady a tidy 30-10 in 40 regular- and post-season games since joining the Buccaneers. However, did you know that Brady is 29-6 against everyone other than New Orleans and a mere 1-4 against the Saints? This New Orleans defense has given Brady fits. Murray and I know this. Pick: New Orleans.
Washington (+1.5) at Detroit
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 11: D’Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions plays against the Philadelphia Eaglesat Ford Field on September 11, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Over the last several years, the entire crew of Felger & Mazz has spent a lot of time on the air making fun of Dan Campbell, the former Miami “Bro coach” who is now leading the Lions. So why are we unanimous on the Lions? Because we’ve all come to the indisputable conclusion that current Washington quarterback Carson Wentz sucks lemons. We’d rather make fun of him now. Pick: Detroit.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Jacksonville
HOUSTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 11: Matt Ryan #2 speaks with head coach Frank Reich of the Indianapolis Colts during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Welcome to the NFC South, where no one wins. Felger likes the Colts, who are coming off an embarrassing tie at Houston. The Jags are coming off a loss at Washington, which is equally as embarrassing. I used to think quite highly of Indy head coach Frank Reich, whom I credited for Philadelphia’s win over the Patriots in the Super Bowl; now I think he’s just another dope who foolishly keeps going for it on fourth down. Murray and I like the home dog. You’re right, Jim. Pick: Jacksonville.
Carolina (+2) at NY Giants
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 11: Head coach Brian Daboll of the New York Giants looks on ahead of the the preseason game between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on August 11, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Saw this photo of Giants coach Brian Daboll and tried to come up with an adjective for him, so here goes: cherubic. Don’t you just love the little fella? Amazing how functional the Lions and Giants look now that they are being coached by people other that Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Felger and I won out here. You lose, Murray. Pick: New York.
Seattle (+8.5) at San Francisco
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 11: Head coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers talks with Jimmy Garoppolo #10 prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 11, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
After Week 1, there’s just no way this spread makes sense, right? The Niners threw up on themselves. The Seahawks actually looked legit. True to form, Murray is on the `Hawks and Felger is on the Niners. I see a spread like this and I think Vegas knows something we don’t. Pick: San Francisco.
Atlanta (+10) at LA Rams
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 08: Head coach Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams watches warm ups to the NFL game against the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium on September 08, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Have to believe that the Rams bounce back after a bad Week 1, but you know what? It doesn’t matter what I think. Felger and Murray actually agree on this one and are both picking the Rams, who opened as a two-touchdown favorite. The spread has since come down, which means the public likes Atlanta plus the point. Pick: Los Angeles.
Arizona (+5.5) at Las Vegas
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 11: Wide receiver Davante Adams #17 of the Las Vegas Raiders is knocked out of bounds by safety Duron Harmon #30 of the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at SoFi Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Murray thinks Arizona is trash and picked the Raiders. Felger also picked Las Vegas. Despite a Week 1 loss at the Chargers in the ironclad AFC West, the Raiders remain my dark horse to be a legitimate AFC threat for the Super Bowl. I really do hate it when we all agree. Pick: Las Vegas.
Houston (+10) at Denver
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 12: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos reacts during the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on September 12, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Murray is taking the points and buying in on the Texans, who looked respectable in Week 1. Felger picked the Broncos to go to the Super Bowl and isn’t about to pivot after a Week 1 loss. I love Texans quarterback Davis Mills … but not in this spot. The Broncos are going to be angry and we all know Denver is hell for opposing teams and young quarterbacks. Pick: Denver.
Cincinnati (-7) at Dallas
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 11: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals is sacked during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Based on the line change, the absence of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is worth roughly 10 points. Murray thinks the Bengals can’t protect Joe Burrow and will eventually ruin him. He may be right. Felger likes the Bengals and I can’t bet on Cooper Rush over Burrow. Pick: Cincinnati.
Chicago (+10) at Green Bay (Sunday night)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – SEPTEMBER 11: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks on during the second quarter in the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
Aaron Rodgers is 23-5 in his career against the Bears, including 12-2 at home. In Rodgers’ last two home games against Chicago, the Packers have averaged 43 points. The Packers could have Beetle and Hardy for receivers in this game and still cover the spread. The Bears will be lucky to get double digits. It’s unanimous. Pick: Green Bay.
Tennessee (+10) at Buffalo (Monday night)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – AUGUST 20: Head Coach Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans on the sidelines during a preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Nissan Stadium on August 20, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Buccaneers 13-3. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
I want it known here that this pick is against my wishes. Murray and Felger are both on the Bills, who looked otherworldly last week while the Titans lost at the Giants. Murray is especially down on Tennessee. In the photo above, Mike Vrabel looks like he just got a whiff after one of his players passed gas on the sideline. He’ll keep it close but my opinion doesn’t matter. Pick: Buffalo.
Minnesota (+2) at Philadelphia (Monday night)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – SEPTEMBER 11: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter in the game against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Thankfully, I get the deciding vote on this one. The easily-baited Murray is taking the cheese on Minnesota, which defeated Green Bay last week. Felger is going Eagles. Me? There is a reason Kirk Cousins is 24-36-2 in his career on the road. And that reason is because, deep down, he’s a loser. Pick: Philadelphia.
