Five things to watch for when the New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday.
The New England Patriots are coming off of what was in many ways their most dominant win of the year last week against the Chicago Bears. They outgained the Bears 328 yards to 142 in a 19-3 win.
Now the Patriots will try to do something they haven’t done in over two years – win back-to-back games. The last consecutive Patriots wins were actually three in a row, from Weeks 8 to 11 (with a bye week in there) in 2022.
Fast forward to Week 11 in 2024, and the Patriots are hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams certainly represent a step up in competition from the Bears. After a slow start due to injuries the Rams won three in a row before losing a low-scoring game to the Miami Dolphins on Monday night.
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While the Rams are getting healthier and have been better, they’re still banged up and coming in off a short week as they make the cross-country flight to New England. Will that be enough to even the playing field?
Even if it is, the Patriots will need to continue to execute at a high level to stay in and potentially win this game. That’s easier said than done though. Consistency has been an issue for this team this season, and more of their stronger performances – like the one last week – have been followed by a backslide.
“I’m going to continue to stress to the players, to the team, to the coaches, it’s having a sense of urgency and really learning how to win,” head coach Jerod Mayo said on Wednesday. “We haven’t had a back-to-back win this year. We’ve lost multiple games in a row, so we know that side of it. Now we’ve got to figure out how to turn the page after a win and get a victory.”
Can this Patriots team show it can stack games? What would that look like? We’ll start there as we get into this week’s ‘5 Things’…
Stacking success on offense
The biggest bright spot for the Patriots last week was the offensive line. They opened up room for the Patriots’ running backs to run for 3.9 yards per carry – their most efficient game in over a month. Meanwhile the pressure rate on Drake Maye was 37.9 percent per PFF. That’s not great, but it’s certainly manageable and a significant improvement from where the unit was at to start the season. The offensive line was given game balls following that performance.
Nov 10, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
That was against a solid Bears’ offensive line, but the Rams’ unit presents another challenge. Their run defense in particular is much tougher – they rank eighth in the NFL allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. The pass rush also represents a step up, with a season pressure rate of 41.9 percent, which is second in the NFL entering the week.
“I would argue to say this is one of the best fronts that we have seen all year,” Jerod Mayo said this week. “It’s a young group, and they do it the right way. They play the right way. They play together. They hustle. They’re all over the place.”
“Man, the front is special. It’s a group of young, talented players,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said. “They’re playing with a lot of confidence right now. They’re physical, they’re violent, they’re fast. I think if you had to circle an area for them that you would highlight as a defensive line.”
“Our offensive line, they’ve got to step up,” Mayo added. “A lot of people say it’s a challenge, but it’s an opportunity for them to, again, shut up the naysayers about not being able to establish the line of scrimmage. That’s my challenge to them. If we handle those guys, they have guys at the second and third level, obviously, but I think it just starts up front.”
The good news for the Patriots’ offensive line is they can continue to build continuity. This is expected to be the fourth start for the group of (left to right) Vederian Lowe, Michael Jordan, Ben Brown, Mike Onwenu, and Demontrey Jacobs. The pressure rate on the quarterback has been under 40 in all three of that group’s starts.
Last week showed what the Patriots’ offense can do when given time and space up front, and Mayo’s comments suggest the team thinks they’ll have opportunities if they can get to the second level. It’s just a matter of the offensive line giving them an opportunity to do so.
The one other thing to watch for the Patriots’ offense – and Maye in particular – is limiting turnovers. Maye had fewer turnovers and turnover-worthy plays last week, but his two misses including the interception were bad. Can he play a cleaner game this week against a team that is middle of the pack in getting takeaways this year?
Stacking success on defense
Nov 10, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Anfernee Jennings (33) sacks Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images
Just like with the offense, on defense building off of the success of last week starts for the Patriots up front. Last week they dominated a banged-up Bears’ line. This week they’ll get a group that has progressively gotten better as the season has gone on, and is getting healthier as well.
As a whole, this group is better in the pass game than the run game. Matthew Stafford has been pressured on 32.1 percent of his dropbacks, which is the seventh-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks.
So what does success look like for the Patriots’ defensive front in this game? Matching nine sacks and a 40 percent pressure rate would be outstanding, but it’s not realistic against this unit. Still, they need to be better than they were in the previous games.
Stopping the run may be both more effective and more achievable in this game. Los Angeles has not run the ball this year, with their 3.8 yards per carry ranking 31st in the NFL heading into this week. A significant amount of the Rams’ passing attack is based off of play action, so limiting their run game with the front alone will allow the secondary to focus mainly on coverage responsibilities without getting caught looking in the backfield.
When it comes to rushing the passer, all eyes will be on the potential debut of Yannick Ngakoue after he was claimed off waivers by the Patriots last week. Can he provide more of a pass rush spark to a defense that has lacked electricity off the edge this year? Given he’s now had a full week of practice with the team, it wouldn’t be surprising if he has some kind of role on Sunday.
State of the Rams’ offensive line
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 31: Joe Noteboom #70 of the Los Angeles Rams makes a block during a game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 31, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Mike Lawrence/Getty Images)
If Ngakoue is rushing off the right side of the Rams’ offense, he could have some chances to make plays. As mentioned above the Rams’ offensive line is getting healthier but the group isn’t all the way back – especially at right tackle.
Starting right guard Rob Haverstein missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury, and hasn’t practiced this week. In his place the team started Joe Noteboom, who played left tackle Week 1 before being placed on IR with an ankle injury.
Last week was Noteboom’s first game back, and he allowed six pressures in the loss to the Dolphins. However Noteboom hasn’t practiced this week, which could mean the Rams end up turning to third-string tackle Warren McClendon. McClendon was benched after allowing nine pressures and three sacks in the first two weeks, and has played just 19 snaps since.
Up the middle, the Rams got center Jonah Jackson and left guard Steve Avila back last week from injury as well. Jackson in particular showed some rust, allowing three pressures.
At left tackle Alaric Jackson was in a rhythm but hasn’t performed as well the last few weeks. Last week against Miami he allowed his first sack since Week 4, and was called for his fourth penalty of the year.
As a whole, the Rams’ line has been better than the sum of its parts. But, with so many moving parts, can the Patriots find a spot to pick on and take advantage?
Which veteran plays at wide receiver
Oct 13, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) makes a catch against the Houston Texans during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Last week saw the Patriots make a pretty notable change to their wide receiver rotation. K.J. Osborn went from being inactive to playing 45 percent of the offensive snaps, the second most of any receiver behind Kayshon Boutte (97 percent). Meanwhile Kendrick Bourne was active but didn’t play after playing 78 percent of the snaps the week before.
This continued a trend of the Patriots mixing and matching groups at receiver. It sounds like they’ll continue to juggle this week, based on an answer Alex Van Pelt gave on Thursday.
“I think we’ve kind of zeroed in on who we’re going to work with on game day,” Van Pelt said when asked about consistency with wide receiver usage. “I think that’ll show more as we go forward.”
It also sounds like Bourne will be apart of what that group looks like, based on what Van Pelt said when asked about his benching last week.
“He’s a big part of this offense. Just felt like there were some areas where he could improve and that was kind of based on that,” Van Pelt explained. “But he’ll be a big part of us moving forward. He brings a lot of energy to the field and his effort is exceptional. So, it’s just the way it went last week. It could change week to week right now, but he’s a big part of our team.”
So if Bourne returns, the question is where do those snaps come from? Osborn didn’t do much with his opportunity last week, and was only targeted once on an incompletion. Do those two just switch?
Then, there’s the ongoing story of the Patriots’ rookie receivers. Ja’Lynn Polk’s role increased significantly last week and he caught his first pass since Week 6. Meanwhile Javon Baker continues to see sparse offensive playing time. If the Patriots want to play them more it could mean less of a role for both veterans – Osborn and Bourne.
Covering punts
Aug 15, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots punter Bryce Baringer (17) punts the ball during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
While last week was mostly a positive for the Patriots on special teams, covering punts remains an issue. They allowed their third field-flipping punt in four weeks, and it came on the first drive of the game. While the Patriots ultimately didn’t get burned in this instance (the Bears ended up punting the ball back), giving up momentum changes like that early in games isn’t sustainable.
When looking at the big punt returns the team has given up in recent weeks, there’s no one consistent issue. From Bryce Baringer outkicking his coverage to not filling lanes to poor tackling, each return has been sparked by a different issue.
It’s not just the big returns either. Even on the non-explosive returns, returners are getting decent yardage against the Patriots. Through 10 weeks, New England is allowing 14.3 yards per punt return, which is the fifth-highest in the NFL. They’re one of five teams to allow a punt return touchdown this season.
This week especially, the Patriots should be able to contain the Rams’ punt return game. LA ranks 23rd in the NFL averaging 8.7 yards per punt return. Returner Xavier Smith had his first two returns of the year go for 38 and 17 yards, but he hasn’t had a return of over eight yards since, averaging just 4.1 yards per return since Week 5.
What can the Patriots do to ensure the Rams (and other future opponents) don’t have as much success returning punts? One thing could be to angle more punts – especially in full-field situations – towards the sideline. Look for the team to potentially do more of that this week.
