The major wave of NFL free agency has come and gone, the NFL Draft is now in full focus. With the majority of the significant veteran roster moves made, it’s time to narrow in on what teams will be looking at come late April.
When it comes to the Patriots, they spent free agency investing heavily on the offensive side of the ball, while re-setting their defense (they re-signed every defensive free agent they had besides Devin McCourty, who retired).
For our first couple of mock drafts, we had the Patriots doing what they’ve done the last two years – using their top pick to address their biggest need regardless of positional value. Will that be the case after their signings and losses? We’ll get to that, but first…
TRADE!
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots reacts before a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Patriots get:
-20th overall pick (1st round)
-83rd overall pick (3rd round)
-123rd overall pick (4th round)
-2024 3rd-round pickSeahawks get:
-14th overall pick (1st round)
-135th overall pick (4th round)That’s right – the Patriots are moving down in the first round. With top tackles flying off the board ahead of them, they make a value play. This trade is modeled after the one the Jets made in 2021 to jump the Patriots and get the 14th overall pick from the Minnesota Vikings.
Round 1, Pick 20 (from SEA):
CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
Nov 5, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Maryland Terrapins defensive back Deonte Banks (3) reacts following a play during the third quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
In the last two weeks, the Patriots added multiple tackles, signing Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson. Meanwhile they ‘subtracted’ at cornerback, with the report that Jalen Mills will be switching to safety in 2023. That leads us to the Patriots targeting a cornerback in the first round.
Banks checks a lot of boxes for the Patriots. He’ll bring much-needed size to the cornerback position at 6-foot, 197 pounds, and top-tier athleticism as well. Highlighted by his 4.35-second 40-yard dash and 42-inch verticals, he finished top five among cornerbacks in every Combine drill he participated in. He takes that athleticism and works it into his physical style of play, especially at the line of scrimmage.
Last year at Maryland, quarterbacks completed only 43.3 percent of the 60 passes thrown his way, while he recorded eight pass breakups and an interception in 384 coverage snaps. Specifically, he faired much better than most cornerbacks against Ohio State’s gauntlet offense. He was targeted just six times in 31 coverage snaps in that game, allowing four catches for 53 yards and no touchdowns with two pass breakups.
TRADE!
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 30: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots reacts during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on October 30, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Patriots get:
-32nd overall pick (2nd round)
Steelers get:
-46th overall pick (2nd round)
-107th overall pick (4th round)
-117th overall pick (4th round)They’re on the move again! After trading down in the first round, the Patriots move back up to the top of the second round. Remember, there are only 31 first-round picks this year, because the Dolphins lost theirs for tampering. In any given year, the drop in value from the final pick of the first round to the first pick of the second round is massive, because of the difference of the fifth-year option. In a way, this is the cheapest it will ever be to move up to the 32nd pick, so the Patriots take advantage.
This trade is modeled after the 2021 trade up the Patriots used to get Christian Barmore. While they only moved up eight spots that year instead of 12, the fourth-round picks they’re trading this year are worth much more than the two they gave up then (122nd and 139th overall).
Round 2, Pick 32 (from PIT):
RT Dawand Jones, Ohio State
Jan 1, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Dawand Jones (79) blocks against the Utah Utes during the 2022 Rose Bowl game at the Rose Bowl. Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
There’s an argument to be made at both tackle spots for the Patriots right now, but the picture is much less clear on the right side. The team re-signed Conor McDermott and added Reiff on a one-year deal, but even at their upside both are low-end starters.
Jones, on the other hand, has the potential to become one of the best right tackles in the game, and do so relatively quickly. At 6-foot-8, 374 pounds it’s impossible for rushers to run through him, but given his advanced footwork it’s not easy to run around him either. There are a lot of similarities between his game and Trent Brown when he’s playing his best football. Jones only falls this far because teams generally value left tackles more than right tackles, and it’s a deep left tackle class.
Round 3, Pick 76 (from CAR):
WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma
Sep 17, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) catches a pass against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots have a number of sure-handed, move the chains receivers on their roster, but they need a player who is a threat to break a big play every time he’s on the field. Ideally, that becomes Mims with this pick. Not only does Mims bring the speed and explosiveness he showed with his 4.38-second 40, but he also has true formational versatility with significant experience in college working both out of the slot and on the boundary.
Mims’ best trait though might be his hands and body control. There are few throws he’s unable to get to, and there isn’t a receiver in this class with a more impressive ‘spectacular catch’ highlight reel. Spectacular catches alone don’t make a prospect, but his ability to contort himself and catch the ball away from his body is something that could be maximized by a quarterback like Mac Jones.
The Patriots obtained this pick from the Carolina Panthers in a draft-night trade last year. They allowed Carolina to move up in the third round to take QB Matt Corral, and in return got this pick and a 2022 fourth-round pick, used to take Bailey Zappe.
Round 3, Pick 83 (from SEA):
OLB Byron Young, Tennessee
Tennessee defensive lineman/linebacker Byron Young (6) after sacking Kentucky quarterback Will Levis during Tennessee’s game against Kentucky at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022. (Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel/USA Today Network)
Prior to last year, the Patriots had taken at least one edge player on Day 2 three years in a row, and four of five overall. With Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings both in contract years, it would make sense for that trend to pick back up again in 2023.
Given that, the Patriots take Byron Young from Tennessee (not to be confused with Byron Young from Alabama, who is also a defensive lineman projected to go late on Day 2 this year) with their final top-100 pick. A JUCO transfer from Georgia Military College, Young was a starter for both years he was with the Vols and recorded 12.5 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in 26 career games. He’s able to win with a very quick first step and high motor, and doesn’t quit on plays even when beat initially.
Part of the reason he falls this far is his age (he just turned 25), but that alone likely won’t deter the Patriots. In fact, since 2017 the Patriots have the oldest average draft age in the NFL.
Round 4, Pick 123 (from SEA):
S Ronnie Hickman, Ohio State
Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes safety Ronnie Hickman (14) tackles Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Brendan Sullivan (10) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ryan Field. Ohio State won 21-7. Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
Everything about Hickman’s makeup says ‘Patriots safety.’ At six-foot, 203 pounds, he’s been used all over the field. He was a two-year starter for the Buckeyes, earning a pair of All-Big Ten nods (second-team in 2021, third-team in 2022).
Last year alone he logged over 100 snaps in the box, at deep safety, and also at slot cornerback. He’s at his best when covering tight ends – he was targeted 30 times in 408 coverage snaps last year allowing just 13 completions for 107 yards with an interception and pass breakup. He was also only called for one penalty all season. On top of that, he has extensive special teams experience. He’s also a capable and willing run defender.
Hickman could fit anywhere in the Patriots’ safety rotation, but would give them another player with experience playing on the back end. That would allow more opportunities for guys like Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips to play in the box, where they’re at their best.
And for those wondering about taking two Ohio State players in one draft, after having drafted just one Buckeye in the Bill Belichick era (Nate Ebner, 6th round 2012)? Keep in mind the Patriots’ new director of college scouting – Camren Williams – is a former Ohio State linebacker himself. That could change their approach to the program.
TRADE!
Dec 18, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick reacts in the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders defeated the Patriots 30-24. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
-146th overall pick (5th round)
-227th overall pick (7th round)
-257th overall pick (7th round)Saints get:
-184th overall pick (6th round)
-192nd overall pick (6th round)
-2024 7th-round pickThe Patriots come into this draft with three very condensed sixth-round picks at 184, 187, and 192. They trade up here and spread those picks out a bit.
Round 5, Pick 146 (from NO):
P Michael Turk, Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s Michael Turk (37) punts during a Bedlam college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Oklahoma State University Cowboys (OSU) at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022. Oklahoma won 28-13. (Bryan Terry/the Oklahoman/USA TODAY Network)
In 2019, the Patriots traded up in the fifth round to take Jake Bailey. Now to replace Bailey, they once again trade up into what has traditionally been their special teams round (since 2011 they’ve made just six fifth-round picks, with three of those being used on Bailey, long snapper Joe Cardona, and kicker Justin Rohrwasser).
Although the team signed Corless Waitman last week, his limited NFL experience likely doesn’t rule out them bringing in a rookie to compete for the job. In this case that spot goes to Turk, who is the son of longtime NFL long snapper Dan Turk and nephew of punter Matt Turk.
A four time first-team all-conference punter (twice in the Pac-12, twice in the Big 12), Turk’s 47.2 yards per punt during his college career are the second-most by a college punter since 2000. For his career, he had 98 punts downed inside the 20, compared to 28 touchbacks. Turk worked with the Patriots’ coaching staff at the Shrine Bowl, and put on an impressive performance.
Round 6, Pick 187 (from CAR):
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Kentucky
COLUMBIA, MO – NOVEMBER 05: Chris Rodriguez Jr. #24 of the Kentucky Wildcats runs the ball against Jalani Williams #4 of the Missouri Tigers during the first half at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Columbia, Missouri. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)
While many have targeted different pass-catching backs for the Patriots, the team did draft Pierre Strong Jr. with a high enough pick last year that it makes more sense for them to see how much of a sophomore jump he makes. If he doesn’t they have veteran options in James Robinson and Ty Montgomery who can fill that role.
Instead, they take a real powerful, nasty downhill runner in Rodriguez. At 6-foot, 217 pounds, Rodriguez can be a lot for tacklers to handle when he meets them head on. His contact balance and willingness to lead with his shoulder helps him pick up yards after contact and earn extra yards in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
That doesn’t mean he can’t break off big plays though – he led the SEC in rushing in 2021 with 1,378 yards in 13 games, then had 904 yards in eight games last year. Rodriguez was a two-time team captain for the Wildcats.
In New England, Rodriguez would give the Patriots another short-yardage and bowling ball-type back to help take some of the tougher yards off Rhamondre Stevenson’s docket. He’d compete with Kevin Harris – another former SEC leading rusher – for that role.
This is the pick the Patriots got back in the Stephon Gilmore trade.
Round 6, Pick 210:
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
PASADENA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 29: Dorian Thompson-Robinson #1 of the UCLA Bruins throws during the first quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Rose Bowl on October 29, 2022 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Following the philosophy of ‘take a quarterback more often than not, to see if you hit on one,’ the Patriots take Thompson-Robinson, who goes by the nickname ‘DTR,’ to close out the sixth round. The Patriots should be as familiar with Thompson-Robinson as any quarterback in the class after working with him at the Shrine Bowl.
The Patriots seemed to like what they saw from Thompson-Robinson, too. While most all-star games feature rotations at the quarterback position, the Patriots had him run the two-minute drill in the first half after he’d already been subbed out, then he continued to play most of the second half.
Thompson-Robinson is one of, if not the most experienced quarterback in this year’s draft class. A true dual-threat, he amassed 10,710 passing yards and 1,826 rushing yards in five seasons as a starter at UCLA, accounting for a total of 116 touchdowns. He’s been working with throwing coaches so far this offseason, showing a much more compact and quick release at both the Shrine Bowl and Combine.
Round 7, Pick 227 (from NO):
OL Anthony Bradford, LSU
Nov 26, 2022; College Station, Texas, USA; LSU Tigers offensive lineman Anthony Bradford (75) in action during the game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
In 29 career games at LSU, Bradford registered starts at both guard spots as well as left tackle. At 6-foot-4, 332 pounds he’s going to primarily be an interior player at the next level, but that experience is still valuable.
Bradford is a powerful blocker, and was second among all players at the Combine with 34 reps on the bench. Where he really excels though is in motion, either as a puller or on combo blocks. He’d give the Patriots strong interior line depth in 2023, and could be a candidate to start in 2024 if the team doesn’t re-sign Mike Onwenu.
Round 7, Pick 245 (from ATL):
TE Brayden Willis, Oklahoma
LUBBOCK, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 26: Tight end Brayden Willis #9 of the Oklahoma Sooners reaches out with the ball for a touchdown during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
Fittingly, the Patriots use the pick they acquired in the Jonnu Smith trade to add a tight end.
With Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki in the picture, it’s going to be tough for a pure receiving tight end to get snaps in the Patriots’ offense this year. While they could take a developmental player with the idea of redshirting him, instead they go with a blocker who may have a role as a rookie.
Willis is more than just a simple blocking tight end, too. At Oklahoma, they used him as a traditional tight end, move tight end, in the slot, and as a fullback at 6-foot-3, 241 pounds. He can lead the way in the running game, and be a factor both as a blocker and pass catcher when the team throws the ball. His receiving skillset isn’t advanced, but his tough ball-carrying style does make him tough to tackle after the catch. HE also covers kicks and punts.
Round 7, Pick 257 (from NO):
WR Justin Shorter, Florida
BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 16: Justin Shorter #4 of the Florida Gators catches the ball for a touchdown on a Hail Mary pass as Jay Ward #5 of the LSU Tigers defends during the first half at Tiger Stadium on October 16, 2021 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
With their final pick, the Patriots go for the double-dip at wide receiver. After taking a smaller, faster receiver on Day 2, they go with a completely different kind of player here.
Shorter measured in at the Combine at 6-foot-4, 229 pounds. Seeing him in person at the Shrine Bowl, where he worked with the Patriots’ coaching staff, he looked more like a tight end build-wise than a wideout. As expected at this size, he’s a 50/50-ball target who is a threat both along the sidelines and in the red zone. He does a great job of tracking the ball in the air, which gives him even more of an advantage high-pointing and winning jump balls against defensive backs.
In New England, Shorter would compete for a roster spot as the backup ‘X’ receiver behind DeVante Parker. If he sticks around, he could be a candidate to take over the role next year when Parker’s contract expires.
