What to watch for when the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
New England Patriots-Indianapolis Colts. It’s a rivalry – arguably the rivalry – that took center stage in the NFL for over a decade. From the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning era to the upstart Colts led by Andrew Luck visiting New England for multiple playoff games, For 15 years Patriots-Colts was an annual if not bi-annual matchup that always came with anticipation and excitement.
Even after the Colts left the AFC East for the 2002 season, the two teams met at least once every year (if not twice, with the playoffs) from 2003 to 2015. They then didn’t play for two years, before Brady and Luck made their final starts in the series in a Thursday night game in 2018 that the Patriots won 38-24.
After two more years off the team have played every year since 2021. That matchup continued the feeling of the rivalry. The Patriots came in hot off a bye week led by rookie Mac Jones, but were knocked off 27-17 by a Colts team also looking for Wild Card positioning. That loss kicked off a backslide that saw the Patriots go 1-3 in their final four games before losing in the playoffs.
The last two matchups haven’t come with the same fanfare. In 2022 the struggling Colts came to Gillette starting backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger and lost 26-3. Colts head coach Frank Reich was fired following that game.
Then last year, it was a 10-6 Colts win in Germany that ushered in change on the Patriots’ side. That game was the final full start for Jones, who played a split game the next week before being benched. Meanwhile, it was after that game that the Patriots reportedly decided it would be Bill Belichick’s last year with the team.
Now, both teams come into this matchup fresh off of hitting the reset button and trying to start a new era in the rivalry. That includes two new quarterbacks, which is where we’ll start in this week’s “5 Things”…
Welcoming two new quarterbacks to the rivalry
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 24: Anthony Richardson #5 of the Indianapolis Colts scrambles during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 24, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
With all of the other emerging quarterbacks in the NFL right now, nobody is setting up Drake Maye and Anthony Richardson as the next Brady-Manning right now. But, as both make their first start in the series (Richardson was on the Colts last year, but got hurt before the Patriots game) the hope on both sides is this will be an emerging rivalry of its own in the AFC moving forwards.
There are some similarities with these quarterbacks. Each one was the third quarterback drafted in his class (Maye went third overall, Richardson fourth), and was viewed as more of a ceiling prospect than a floor prospect coming out. That’s more extreme in Richardson’s case – he started 13 college games to Maye’s 26 – but both were/are viewed as electric high-level playmakers with the main concern being their tendency to get too lost in the out-of-structure stuff and too loose with the football.
So far, that evaluation has held true early in the NFL careers of each player. While Richardson’s 7.3 yards per attempt rank relatively low, that’s mainly due to his low completion percentage of 47.1 percent – the worst among qualifying quarterbacks by 12 percentage points. At the same time, his 15.6 yards per completion and 12.9-yard average depth of target both lead the league by significant margins.
Maye had strong downfield throwing numbers his first few starts, with four deep completions in his first 84 dropbacks. However as teams have adjusted to him and the Patriots’ offensive line has taken a step back those numbers have dipped, and he has just two deep completions in his last 184 dropbacks. Still, his ability to create something from nothing has been apparent, as highlighted by his touchdown pass to Austin Hooper last week.
For both quarterbacks though, turnovers have been a problem. Despite each having only played in eight games (Richardson missed two games due to injury then was later benched for two more games earlier this year), they’re both among the league leaders in turnovers. Richardson’s interception rate of 3.7 percent is the fourth-highest in the NFL, with Maye ranking seventh at 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, Maye’s four fumbles lost are tied for the league lead among quarterbacks, and Richardson has lost three for himself.
Both quarterbacks have the ability to make game-changing plays for the better – but also have shown a habit of making them for the worst as well. This game could be as much about which defense is better positioned to take advantage of the mistakes, as much as it is which quarterback makes the most plays. That could be the Colts, who have forced 17 takeaways this year to the Patriots’ nine.
How much of a factor will Jonathan Taylor be?
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 24: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Detroit Lions against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 24, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Not new to this series is Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has played the Patriots twice and played a starring role in the 2021 game when he ran for 170 yards on 29 carries, capping the performance with a 67-yarder up the gut that put the game on ice. Then last year he had 69 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in that slog of a game.
“Taylor, he’s a problem,” head coach Jerod Mayo said on Tuesday. “We have to try to go out there and really bottle him up. I think one thing about him, he probably doesn’t get the hype that he deserves. At the same time, he’s a very explosive player and a very fast player out there on the field. It all really runs through him.”
This year, the Patriots might be getting Taylor at the right time. He opened the season averaging 4.8 yards per carry before getting put on the shelf with an ankle injury. In his return in Week 8 he had a big game, but in the three games since is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Granted that’s against some of the league’s better defenses (the Jets and Lions the last two weeks) but the Patriots can’t afford to let this be a get-right game for him and the Colts’ ground attack.
As for the Patriots’ run defense, last week was a step forward – albeit while the unit couldn’t make any plays against the pass. They allowed under 100 yards for just the fourth time this year and the second time since Week 2. The 2.7 rushing yards per attempt against was the second-lowest number of the year, after allowing 2.4 against Seattle in Week 2.
Part of the reason the Dolphins’ run game was so less productive last week was they didn’t need it to be – they were lighting things up through the air. But, the Patriots need to find progress where they can get it. Getting Christian Barmore back into a more regular role should help, as they try to build on last week’s progress.
Changing personnel in coverage
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: Alex Austin #28 of the New England Patriots intercepts a pass intended for Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
When it comes to having a more competitive game in coverage, there’s good and bad news for the Patriots. First, a few items of good news. Unlike the Dolphins and Rams who are two of the most motion-heavy teams in the league, motion isn’t a big part of what the Colts do offensively (they motion on 53.5 percent of their offensive snaps, which ranks 26th in the NFL). That should allow the Patriots to pick their own coverage matchups and stick to them more effectively. On top of that, the Colts are expected to be without leading receiver Josh Downs, who suffered a shoulder injury last week.
Without Downs through the Colts are left with a receiver group dominated by size. Their top three pass catchers on Sunday will be Michael Pittman (6-foot-4, 223 pounds), Alec Pierce (6-3, 211), and rookie Adonai Mitchell (6-2, 205).
The Patriots have struggled with teams bringing size at the wide receiver position this year. Beyond Christian Gonzalez they haven’t had the size themselves to match up, with 5-foot-9 Jonathan Jones and 5-foot-8 Marcus Jones the next two up. No true second boundary cornerback has emerged. It looked like Marco Wilson might have a shot at that role until two weeks ago, when he struggled against the Rams and got cut.
There are other cornerbacks with size on the Patriots’ roster, they just haven’t gotten much of a chance. This would be a good week to change that, stacking them with Gonzalez who should be shadowing the top receiver in Pittman.
The first player that stands out in that regard is Alex Austin. Despite finishing the 2023 season on a high note and having a strong training camp, the 6-foot-1 Austin had an almost exclusive special teams role before being placed on IR in Week 4. He returned last week, and again only played special teams. We’ll see if his defensive role ramps up this week.
“He’s been preparing on the practice field, mentally in the classroom,” defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington said of Austin earlier this week. “For me, he’s doing a good job of just continue to make sure he’s ready to go for whenever his number is called. So I’m excited to see whenever he gets his opportunity to hopefully go out there and do well for us.”
Isaiah Bolden is another player to watch. The 6-foot-2 corner out of Jackson State is less experienced than Austin, but has more athletic upside. Like Austin, he’s been limited to an almost exclusive special teams role this year.
At times this season the Patriots haven’t been afraid to use their primary special teams players on defense. Christian Elliss proved to be a better answer to the depth issues at linebacker than some players generally more dedicated to defense, and in recent weeks we’ve seen Brenden Schooler emerge as a role player on obvious passing downs in the Longhorn package. It might be time to extend that usage philosophy to the secondary, and this week makes as much sense as any to do that with Austin, Bolden, or both.
Change on the offensive line
Patriots offensive lineman Cole Strange during a Wednesday practice. (Alex Barth/98.5 The Sports Hub)
One place we do know the Patriots will have a lineup change is on the offensive line. Left guard Michael Jordan was released on Tuesday, after starting 11 of the first 12 games of the season.
The most likely replacement for Jordan is Cole Strange, who returned to practice last week. There has been some talk of Strange getting a chance at center, but for now this would be the quickest way to get him back in the lineup, and do so at his natural position which happens to be the biggest position of need.
If this is indeed Strange’s first game back, it’s not exactly a soft landing. He’ll be lined up opposite Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who has given him fits in the past. Strange was benched against Buckner and the Colts as a rookie in 2022, then last year allowed four pressures in the matchup.
Still, Strange is likely the team’s best option. Sidy Sow is the next primary left guard on the roster, but has been inconsistent at times this year. Lester Cotton, who was signed to Jordan’s roster spot, played left guard in Miami but may not have enough time to be ready for the game with just two practices under his belt.
There is one other player to watch here – rookie Layden Robinson. Robinson is primarily a right guard and started there earlier in the season for the Patriots, but coaches have talked about him working on the left side in practice in recent weeks. If Strange isn’t ready to go or can’t play the full game, Robinson could very well get a look.
Bucking recent self-inflicted trends
Aug 25, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo during the second half against the Washington Commanders at Commanders Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Last week was arguably the Patriots’ worst-coached game of the year. It followed another game that was low on that list as well. Can the coaches bounce back this week? The best way to do so would be by eliminating some of the self-inflicted issues the team has dealt with.
The biggest issue in this regard is penalties. For the season the Patriots are averaging 6.8 called penalties a game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. However it’s been especially bad as of late – after 10 more last week (not counting the three others that weren’t accepted) they’ve committed 32 penalties in the last four games, which ranks 30th in the NFL in that span.
A lot of these penalties have been pre-snap, which are generally viewed as the more avoidable variety. “The most frustrating penalties to me are always the pre-snap penalties because that is really just a lack of focus and a lack of detail, and we have to clean that stuff up,” Jerod Mayo said this week.
That concept of a ‘lack of focus’ has been a common talking point for Mayo, other coaches, and players when it comes to the team’s penalty issues. It all comes back to preparation, which is on the coaching staff.
On top of the penalties, it’s also become a bit of a pattern for the Patriots to actually start the games strong, but not build on that momentum and quickly fall behind. For a team that stressed ‘hot starts’ early in the year when they couldn’t get out of the gate quick enough, they’re now doing that.
Over their last six games, the Patriots have out-scored opponents in the first quarter 24-13. They’ve scored first in four of those six games, and it would be three in a row if Joey Slye didn’t doink his field goal last week. Defensively, they haven’t allowed any first quarter points in three weeks. From the first quarter on, the Patriots have a scoring margin of -36 over those past six games – including the 15 garbage time points in the fourth quarter last week.
Hot starts are great, but not if a team can’t maintain that momentum for the next 45 minutes. Like with the penalties, ‘focus’ is part of the conversation there. The Patriots need to maintain the focus and intensity they’ve had at the start of games, and the coaching staff needs to adjust as opponents counter them in the middle quarters.
