There’s no dipping a toe in the water as the New England Patriots begin their 2023 season. They’ll be cannonballing right into the deep end of the pool of NFL opponents, when they host the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
The Eagles are coming off of one of their best seasons in franchise history. In just the second season under head coach Nick Sirianni, the Birds went 14-3 – tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL – and reached their fourth Super Bowl in NFL history.
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On offense, the Eagles were led by MVP runner-up Jalen Hurts. In his third NFL season, Hurts completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,701 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. On the ground he added another 760 yards (to the tune of 4.6 yards per carry) and 13 more scores. Bill Belichick described Hurts this week as “arguably the best player in the league, or one of the top two or three best players in the league.”
Defensively the Eagles’ front put together a historic season. They piled up 70 sacks, the third most ever by a team in a single season. It was just the third time a team has surpassed the 60 sack mark in a season since 2000, with the Eagles joining the 2000 Saints (66 sacks) and 2006 Chargers (61).
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For all their dominance though, the Eagles are relatively straightforward in the way they go about their business. There’s not a ton of smoke and mirrors in their philosophy, as Belichick pointed out this week.
“I don’t think it’s a big mystery about what they do. They just do it very well,” he explained. “They’re well-balanced, so you can’t over play one thing without giving up something else.” Things aren’t expected to change despite the team losing both coordinators this offseason.
Simply put, the Eagles are talented. It doesn’t matter if opponents know what’s coming, it’s about being able to physically make the plays to stop it (a concept Patriots fans should be familiar with from their own team’s dominant two-decade run). It’s easy to identify what the Patriots need to be able to do to have a chance to win the game – but it’ll be much harder for them to actually do it.
Keeping that ‘easier said than done’ theme in mind, let’s look at some key areas the Patriots will need to be competitive in if they want to start their season with a win on Sunday…
Handling the Eagles’ defensive front
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 27: Fletcher Cox #91 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after sacking Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
As we highlighted above, this Eagles’ defensive front is coming off of a historic season. They have the talent to back up that performance wasn’t a fluke.
Of the eight players expected to rotate in and out of the Eagles’ front, six were drafted in the first round. The only two who weren’t are defensive end Josh Sweat, who had 11 sacks last year, and Zach Cunningham, a former NFL tackles leader. They join Hasson Reddick, Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, Brandon Graham, and Derek Barnett in the rotation. That group (minus Cunningham, who was signed this offseason), accounted for 45 of the Eagles’ 70 sacks in 2022. That total would have been the seventh-most in the league last year.
Don’t expect that group to fall off this year. They only lost one player who recorded double-digit sacks last year (Javon Hargrave, 11). Meanwhile, as good as the unit was last year, the Eagles added Cunningham and then used the ninth overall pick in this past NFL Draft to add Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who was ranked by many as the most talented player in the class, regardless of position. With their other first-round pick they kept adding up front, taking another Georgia bulldog in linebacker Nolan Smith.
“Defensively, their front is a very dominant front, best pass rushing front in the league by, I’d say, quite a bit with good depth,” Belichick noted this week.
Clearly, it’s a daunting task to handle this group. If the Patriots are going to keep the pressure off of Mac Jones and open up running lanes, there are two things they’ll have to do – win one-on-ones and call plays that disrupt the timing of the rush.
As dominant of a pass rush team as the Eagles were last year, they did it without the blitz being a major part of their gameplans. According to Pro Football Reference Philadelphia had a blitz called on 22.1 percent of the opposing team’s pass plays. That ranked 18th in the league. So, not miniscule, but less than average.
Let’s do some simple math now. If the Eagles don’t blitz, they’ll have four players rushing the quarterback. The Patriots meanwhile will have five (or more) on blocking assignments. That gives them a numbers advantage. There front four rushes aren’t super complicated either – they were dead last in the NFL last year in using pass rush games up front like stunts and twists.
Given that, the Patriots will still need their linemen to win one-on-ones in multiple spots to hold up. There’s a belief when it comes to offensive line play that a team can cover up one weak spot and be O.K., but it’s when they have to cover up multiple spots that things fall apart. This was the case with the Patriots last year – over the course of the season the left guard, center, and right tackle spots all needed help at times. When it was just one of those spots, the group was at its best. When it was more than one? That’s when the real trouble happened.
Heading into the game the Patriots have one spot they’ll project to need to compensate for at right tackle. Calvin Anderson – the projected starter – just came off NFI last week and hasn’t had much practice time with the rest of the offense. He’s also making just his 13th career NFL start in five years, and would be playing right tackle for the first time since 2020.
Then there’s Cole Strange at left guard. Strange had his moments as a rookie in 2022, but was also benched twice during the season. He also missed most of this summer after suffering a knee injury during the first fully-padded practice of training camp. That leaves his Year 2 progress somewhat up in the air. If he can hold up solo (against the likes of Cox, Davis, and Carter), it would be a major development for the Patriots’ offensive line. It’s a big if, but that development would really open things up for the Patriots’ offense. On top of that, there’s factoring in a certain level of play expected from center David Andrews, right guard Mike Onwenu, and left tackle Trent Brown.
Again, that’s all easier said than done. But it can be done.
The other thing the Patriots can do to mitigate the Eagles’ rush is call concepts that throw off the timing of the defensive linemen, and makes them think twice about pinning their ears back and going all-out on the rush. Those concepts include play action, RPOs, screens, draws, and designed rollouts. Many of those are staples of Bill O’Brien’s offense to begin with, so this shouldn’t be too much of a departure from the Patriots’ core offense.
The two-part problem that is Jalen Hurts
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 20: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
There are two things that Patriots defenses have struggled with in recent years that are cornerstones of the Eagles’ offense – and both center Jalen Hurts. This week has seen a lot of talk about the Patriots struggling to stop mobile quarterbacks, but RPOs have been as much or more of a problem for New England defenses the past few seasons.
Let’s start with the running quarterback issue. Hurts is certainly a threat with his legs, but what makes him unique is that he’s still a pass-first quarterback. If the Patriots fall back on a plan of ‘keep him in the pocket and make him win with his arm,’ he’ll win with his arm.
The trick against Hurts is to get him moving, but not actually let him run with the football. As Taylor Kyles of CLNS Media pointed out this week, Hurts led all qualified quarterbacks last year with a 110.8 passer rating from the pocket. When he scrambled – mostly including throws he had to make on the run – his passer rating fell all the way down to 24.0. So, nearly a 100-point drop. At the same time, Hurts made teams pay with his legs, as seen in his rushing numbers above.
So, how do you stop a quarterback that you want throwing on the run, but don’t want running?
With that run, Jalen Hurts just broke the #Eagles single game QB rushing record, previously held by Michael Vick. pic.twitter.com/tRDf0rrTin
— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) November 28, 2022That’s where a QB spy comes in. When it comes to Hurts in the passing game, the Patriots can’t let him get comfortable. They need to turn up the heat on him, force him off his spot, and get him moving around. Once he does start moving though, there needs to be a player following him sideline-to-sideline at the second level, making sure he doesn’t have an outlet to take off on his own beyond the line of scrimmage. Again, easier said than done.
The role described above hasn’t consistently been a part of the Patriots’ defense the last few years. However, in this past draft they took linebacker Marte Mapu in the third round. Mapu specialized as a spy in college, and given the Patriots’ unsuccessful attempts to acquire similar players with less investment in recent years, it stands to reason filling that role is at least a part of the reason they brought Mapu in.
Look for Mapu to get some spy responsibilities in this game, especially in obvious passing situations. It’s a tough ask for a rookie playing in his first NFL game – especially for a player coming from the FCS level at Sacramento State – but the Patriots need to give him a chance to show what he can do. Mack Wilson and even safeties like Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, and Kyle Dugger could be used as spies as well in certain situations.
Then there’s the matter of RPOs (for those unfamiliar with what an RPO is, we broke down the concept last year here). No team in the NFL ran more RPOs last year than the Eagles, who Pro Football Focus had down for the most such play calls at 185. That’s 24 more than the next closest team, the Atlanta Falcons.
When the Eagles run RPOs, they tend to work too. Despite that high volume the Eagles were one of the best RPO teams in the league last year as well. They gained 8.1 yards per play on their RPO calls, third among all teams (behind the Jets and Dolphins) and second among teams with at least 100 RPO calls.
The best way to counter RPOs is generally man coverage. That’s because unlike in zone, where every player has both run and pass responsibilities off the snap, man calls are much more individualized, focusing on taking away a player rather than space on the field. As such, it’s harder for the offense to put a single defensive player in conflict, the backing philosophy behind the RPO concept.
This is where the two elements described above come into conflict. Man coverage is better against RPOs, but zone generally makes it easier to contain running quarterbacks (because all defensive players have their eyes on the quarterback, rather than tracking their individual assignment). That’s especially true without a spy.
With players like Mapu and Wilson in place, the Patriots should be able to play more man against a RPO heavy teams – like the Eagles – this year. That, of course, it predicated on being able to win in man coverage, which brings us to our next topic…
Coverage matchups
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – JANUARY 21: DeVonta Smith #6 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates his touchdown with teammate A.J. Brown #11 during the first quarter against the New York Giants in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 21, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Let’s take a look at how the Patriots will defend the Eagles with their secondary. In terms of player types, the Patriots are well-suited for this matchup – although again it’s easier said than done.
The Patriots generally base their coverages not entirely on depth charts, but also factor in the skillsets of the different players involved. While they generally pick one coverage matchup to leave primarily one-on-one, it’s not always the No. 1 wide receiver on their No. 2 cornerback.
That’s the case in this game. When looking at the matchups, the clear one-on-one is Jonathan Jones against DeVonta Smith. Jones has the speed to keep up with the speedy 2021 first-round pick from Alabama, and the size differential is minimal. Add in Jones’ experience playing both in the slot and on the boundary to counter how much the Eagles move Smith around the formation and it’s an easy choice.
If Jones can cover Smith with minimal to no help, that would allow the Patriots focus more coverage on All-Pro receiver A.J. Brown, who is more of the ‘No. 1′ receiver for the Eagles. This means Marte Mapu won’t be the only Patriots’ rookie drawing a daunting assignment in Week 1, with first-round pick Christian Gonzalez the logical pick to put on Brown. Gonzalez’ size (6-foot-2, 205 compared to Brown at 6-foot-1, 226) and ability to play strong at the catch point should help him be competitive against Brown.
Plus, with Jones covering Smith, the Patriots will be able to give Gonzalez help with their safeties. In the past, that would mean shading over the top from Devin McCourty. With the Patriots’ safety position reworked after McCourty’s retirement though, there isn’t that traditional center fielder. So, look for the Patriots to play more two-high with deep zones on Brown’s side, or have box safeties jump underneath to take away the quick, in-breaking routes and allow Gonzalez to focus on taking Brown down the field.
With the two big targets settled, the rest of the pieces fall into place. When the Eagles are in 11 personnel Quez Watkins steps in as the slot receiver. The Patriots should be able to put Marcus Jones and/or Myles Bryant on him. When Smith goes into the slot in 11, Jack Jones would be the other boundary cornerback taking the opposite boundary to Gonzalez. When he’s not doing that, Jones could help spell Gonzalez against Brown as well.
As for tight end Dallas Goedert, Jalen Mills moved from cornerback to safety this offseason and is a logical fit as a tight end stopper. Kyle Dugger generally logs some coverage snaps against the other teams top tight end as well.
The Matt Patricia Effect
Aug 12, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Philadelphia Eagles assistant coach Matt Patricia stands with general manager Howie Roseman before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Tom Brady isn’t the only former Patriot returning to Gillette Stadium on Sunday. In a very different sort of homecoming, Matt Patricia will be back in Foxborough for the first time since the Patriots’ 2023 season ended. Patricia, who served as de facto offensive coordinator for the Patriots in 2022, took much of the heat for the offenses lack of performance last season.
Patricia, who was the Patriots’ defensive coordinator for six years during his first stint with the team, is now a member of the Eagles’ coaching staff titled as a ‘senior defensive assistant.’ That begs the question – what if anything can he tell his current employer about his former employer to help get an edge.
Speaking to reporters this week, Nick Sirianni said Patricia has helped him more with understanding Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ day-to-day process rather than individual gameplan stuff. That makes sense, given how much the offense seems to have changes from the one Patricia was running last year.
Patricia may be able to help the Eagles prepare for certain situations that will come up with in the game, and how the Patriots will handle them. But from a schematic point of view, it’s tough to see Patricia being able to give away a significant amount of information.
