The New England Patriots are finally set to begin the 2023 regular season. But what, exactly, will the team look like when they actually take the field?
Biggest difference will easily come on the offensive side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has installed his system as the team’s new playbook, after a disastrous 2022 season torpedoed by the inexperience and ineptitude of Matt Patricia running the offense. And it certainly seems like O’Brien has clicked with quarterback Mac Jones, the receiving corps has bought in, and they’re all pulling in the same direction.
The overall operation is virtually guaranteed to run smoother than 2022, and should almost certainly improve upon their 26th-ranked offensive touchdowns per game (1.8). But the lineup itself, and how it’s deployed, will definitely show a lot of new wrinkles that we haven’t seen in Mac Jones’ career.
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones and offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien head to the practice fields for 2023 training camp in Foxboro. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
Defensively, you can more-or-less expect a continuation of what they’ve been doing for several years. Lots and lots of “Nickel” (five defensive backs), lots of versatility. And they’ve really built up a dynamic pass-rushing group in recent years to pair with a still-deep secondary.
The Patriots defense retained most of their personnel from 2022 to 2023, save for the departure of the retired Devin McCourty. So, the unit will look a lot different in that regard. But we’re expecting the overall approach to be about the same as we’re used to seeing – just with more youth, and perhaps more explosiveness.
With all that in mind, here are the projected base lineups for the 2023 New England Patriots on both offense and defense. NOTE: these are not official lineups or reports, but merely an educated guess based on our coverage throughout the summer, and the lineups that the Pats already put on film in the preseason.
Base “11 Personnel” Offense
Kendrick Bourne of the New England Patriots and Mac Jones of the New England Patriots celebrate with DeVante Parker after Parker’s receiving touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Jan. 8, 2023. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
Like most teams across the league, the Patriots will run the majority of offensive plays out of “11” personnel – one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers. We’re still projecting the Patriots’ three veteran wideouts as the top-3 options in these sets. You can expect to see this on third down and in a lot of passing situations in general.
Running Back: Rhamondre Stevenson
“X” Receiver: DeVante Parker
“Y” Receiver: JuJu Smith-Schuster
“Z” Receiver: Kendrick Bourne
Tight End: Hunter HenryThe Patriots lack that true No. 1 pass-catcher that dictates coverages and can make plays regardless of who’s throwing him the ball or trying to cover him. But they do have good-to-very-good players across the board, who will each play particular roles. Parker will be relied upon for big chunk plays down the field, Smith-Schuster will help move the chains, and Henry will be a top red zone target.
Meanwhile, Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott will be interchangeable depending on schemes and situations, while Bourne will be the “chess piece” that is used in a variety of ways as the primary “Z” outside receiver. If the rookies get on the field, Kayshon Boutte projects as an “X,” while Demario Douglas is more of a slot.
If everyone lives up to the classic Patriots mantra and Does Their Jobs™, the Patriots should be able to do the two things Bill Belichick always simply asks of them: move the ball and score points. We’re expecting a lot of their production to come from 11 personnel.
Base “12 Personnel” Offense
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry makes a catch while running a drill at 2023 minicamp in Foxboro. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
Although the Patriots will certainly run a ton of set with three or more wide receivers, you can also expect them to run more “12” personnel (two tight ends) than they have recently. They ran 23 percent of plays out of “12” in the 2022 season, the 13th-lowest rate in the league. We’re expecting that to tick up a bit, and projecting the basic lineup to look like this…
Running Back: Rhamondre Stevenson
“X” Receiver: DeVante Parker
“Z” Receiver: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tight Ends: Hunter Henry, Mike GesickiNot much in terms of surprises. We wouldn’t be shocked if Kendrick Bourne took Smith-Schuster’s spot as one of the two receivers. But generally, the Pats are likely to try a lot of plays with their clear top-2 tight ends on the field together.
The Patriots will likely try to run the ball a lot out of “12,” but ideally, they can run to set up play-action with both tight ends running downfield for passes. That would give Mac Jones opportunities to attack the most favorable matchups, and opposing defenses a lot to think about.
Base “Nickel” Run Defense
Aug 19, 2023; Green Bay, WI, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux (92) tackles Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (28) during their preseason football game at Lambeau Field. Credit: Tork Mason-USA TODAY Sports
Even on early downs against the run, the Patriots generally like to run a “Nickel” defense, meaning five defensive backs. They even like to go
“Big Nickel,” meaning more safeties than cornerbacks. You can expect plenty of that, given their depth and experience at safety and lack thereof at corner.But of course, the headliners of the run defense will be the front-seven – or front-six, in the case of the Patriots. And because of recent roster moves and a lack of practice access, it’s unclear exactly how that will all line up. But here’s an educated guess…
Defensive End: Deatrich Wise, Lawrence Guy
Nose Tackle: Davon Godchaux
Outside Linebacker: Anfernee Jennings, Matthew Judon
Middle Linebacker: Ja’Whaun Bentley
Safety: Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips
Cornerback: Jonathan Jones, Christian GonzalezNose tackle is the spot that’s being blindly projected more than any other, because Carl Davis was the primary option throughout his time in New England. Godchaux is the obvious choice to play that pure interior role. That could cause a domino effect and a much different-looking D-line.
At linebacker, Matthew Judon remains one of the team’s best edge-setters, so he should continue to get reps against the run. But Anfernee Jennings is likely their next-best option and someone who could help preserve Judon by resting him for these snaps. Jahlani Tavai is projected as the next man up to defend the run from the edge.
Base “Nickel” Pass Defense
Foxboro, MA, Sep. 25, 2022: New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore reacts during a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. (Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports)
This lineup is absolutely, 100 percent subject to change. That’s because we could very easily see more of a 2-4 defensive front than the 3-3 we’re used to seeing.
Defensive Line: Deatrich Wise, Christian Barmore, Keion White
Outside Linebacker: Josh Uche, Matthew Judon
Inside Linebacker: Ja’Whaun Bentley
Safety: Jalen Mills, Kyle Dugger
Cornerback: Jonathan Jones, Christian Gonzalez, Jack JonesSwap out either Wise or White for rookie Marte Mapu, who looks poised to play a hybrid inside linebacker/safety role. But generally, you can expect the pass-rushing to mainly come from the linebackers. There will be a lot on Barmore to take a big step forward.
We’re also putting three cornerbacks on the field in this version of the Nickel defense, which will get Jack Jones out there and slide Jonathan Jones into the slot. But if they prefer to keep Jon over Jack on the outside, they could put Myles Bryant inside.
The Systems
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones and offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien head to the practice fields for 2023 training camp in Foxboro. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
As far as how the Patriots will actually use their personnel? Again, the big differences will come on offense. Expect O’Brien and Mac Jones to run a similar playbook to what they ran at Alabama, which frankly is more in-line with a lot of NFL offenses in this current era.
The personnel groupings will be similar in this Patriots offense, but there will be play-calls that we haven’t seen a lot of in recent years. Run-pass options (RPOs) will be something of a staple, and a stark contrast. But, especially as compared to 2022, there will be more pre-snap motion than perhaps they used all of 2022.
On defense, generally, don’t expect them to be any more aggressive than they historically have been. Perhaps now more than ever, the Patriots will want to limit big plays and force opposing offenses to string plays together and complete long drives. They’ll be hoping to pressure quarterbacks with minimal pass-rush personnel up front, aside from the occasional blitz with a linebacker or defensive back.
In conclusion? A lot of the same, but some intriguing changes on each side of the ball. We’ll see if it translates to more wins and a return to the playoffs.
