Who’s ready for some Sickos Football?
Sunday afternoon in East Rutherford, New Jersey, the New England Patriots play their first road game of the year visiting the New York Jets. The game figures to be a grind-it-out, slugfest, rock fight kind of football game, with both teams coming in to what is projected to be a rainy and windy game with strong defenses but questions on offense.
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Just how little offense is expected in this game? As of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings has the Over/Under for this game at 36.5 points. That’s the lowest total in the league for Week 3, and by a good margin.
On top of that, these teams know each other well with the game being a divisional matchup. It’s a series that’s been lopsided for almost a decade now, with the Patriots having won 14 games in a row against the Jets. That streak is hanging on by a thread after last year, when Marcus Jones’ late-game punt return heroics won the game for the Patriots in the second of two meetings.
There was some thought before the season that this game would bring an end to that streak, with Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets in the offseason. However, Rodgers’ injury in Week 1 has thrust Zach Wilson – who the Patriots have consistently had success against since the New York drafted him in 2021 – back into the Jets’ starting quarterback job.
Will the Jets’ mistake-prone offense fall victim to the Patriots’ defense, or will New England continue to create its own problems and give the Jets a window to win the game? For both teams, establishing the run to limit risky plays will be key. That brings us to our first thing to watch this week…
Can the Patriots run the ball?
Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins defensive end Zach Sieler (92) tackles New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
As crazy as it sounds, nothing will unlock the Patriots’ offense more right now than establishing a traditional, down-hill running game. They need to be able to pound the rock (especially this week, with nasty conditions in the forecast).
Through two weeks, running the ball between the tackles as been as much of a challenge as anything for the Patriots. On carries between the tackles the team is averaging just 2.28 yards per carry on 36 carries. For comparison, rushing outside the tackle box they’re averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 10 carries.
While the running backs could certainly do more, it’s tough to put these issues primarily on Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Rather, the problems have started up front. The Patriots’ team PFF grade for running backs through two games is 80.6, which ranks third in the league. Meanwhile, their team run blocking grade is 39.1, which ranks dead last.
(via NFL GSIS)
Things won’t get any easier against a Jets team that features one of the best defensive fronts in football. Led by Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers on the defensive line and Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley at the second level, this unit is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry so far this season.
Still, the Patriots’ offensive line will need to be able to create a push up front. One player to watch in particular in this regard is guard Cole Strange, who was benched last year in the first meeting with the Jets. The 2022 first-round pick will need to find ways to win against Quinnen Williams, who will be lined up across from him.
One other thing the Patriots can do to help their run game is call more traditional runs from under center. With two power backs, it could help to get them the ball in motion coming from behind the quarterback, rather than handing them the ball out of shotgun.
With backs like Stevenson and Elliott, getting them into the second level is key. If they can get cleanly to linebackers and safeties, they should be able to break tackles and turn would-be 3-5 yard runs into longer gains. But, as center David Andrews pointed out this week, “it’s hard for the running back to get going when he’s getting hit by a d-lineman behind or at the line of scrimmage.”
Right now, with defenses able to stop the run with just their front four, they’ve been able to allocate more resources in the passing game and don’t have to be as preoccupied with play-action. If the Patriots can get their ground game going, not only will it make them more multi-dimensional on offense but also help them throw the ball.
Pass protection
Oct 16, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; New York Jets offensive tackle Duane Brown (71) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Expect both of these quarterbacks to face heavy pressure on Sunday. Not just because of the high-level pass rush both teams have, but their offensive line shortcomings as well.
As much as the Patriots’ offensive line has struggled going back to training camp, the Jets situation has arguably been worse. They’ve struggled to pass protect going back to the early padded practices, and those issues have translated to the regular season.
Coming into this game, the Patriots have the second-worst pass block win rate in the NFL at 37 percent. The only team worse? The Jets, at 33 percent.
This week could be a tough one for the Jets in particular according to the injury report. Both starting tackles are listed this week, with starting left tackle Duane Brown missing both Wednesday and Thursday with shoulder and hip injuries, while right tackle Mekhi Becton has been limited all week with a knee injury.
Among all the other concerns that typically come with pressure, one more focused thing to watch this week will be ball security from the quarterbacks. Both are going to get hit, but in the wet conditions the opportunities for a strip sack will be higher than usual.
Picking matchups
Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots receiver DeVante Parker (1) catches a pass during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
The style of defense that the Jets play affords some unique opportunities for the offense to pick its own matchups. There’s one major way the Patriots can exploit that this week.
With Robert Saleh coming from the Seahawks’ defensive coaching tree, the Jets play the Seattle Cover-3 scheme that was popularized during the Legion Of Boom era. One trademark of this defense is that the boundary cornerbacks are assigned to cover sides rather than assignments. For this Jets defense, that means Sauce Gardner almost exclusively plays on the left side of the defensive formation (123 of 133 snaps so far this year) while D.J. Reed does the same on the right side.
Knowing who will line up where, the Patriots can pick and choose which matchups they want on the boundary. That could include 6-foot-3 DeVante Parker on 5-foot-9 Reed. While just tossing non-stop jump balls to Parker still isn’t the most efficient offense, strategically going to that matchup would be smart.
Plus, there are ways Parker can use his size beyond going vertical. He can use his reach to get balls out over the boundary, or just catch the ball on quick slants, curls, smoke screens, etc. and force the much smaller Reed to tackle him in space.
It looked like the Patriots wanted to try something like this last year, hitting Parker against Reed on a quick slant on the first play of their first matchup in Week 8. However, Parker hurt his knee on the play, missed the rest of the game, then was still limited when the teams met again a few weeks later. Will they try again this year?
Make Zach Wilson do what he doesn’t want to do
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 17: Zach Wilson #2 of the New York Jets runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Last week the Jets had a pretty clear gameplan to work around Zach Wilson – run the football. That’ll almost certainly be a big part of their plan this week as well, so the Patriots should come in ready to stop the run. That can consist of loading the box, blitzing, and keeping bigger personnel on the field. All should be doable given Wilson’s shortcomings as a passer.
Yet even when the Jets did throw the ball there was a clear preference, whether that was from the Jets’ coaching staff or Wilson himself. Of his 27 pass attempts, only six (22.2 percent) went beyond the left hash. Between his two games, only eight of Wilson’s 48 pass attempts (16.6 percent) have been to the left side.
(via NFL Next Gen Stats)
For whatever reason, Wilson clearly doesn’t want to throw to his left. If the Patriots really want to press him they can shade coverage to his right (and line up Christian Gonzalez on that side when applicable).
On top of that, they can carry over something from their game plan against him last year. Rather than going all-out to rush Wilson, the Patriots instead squeezed in on him from one side and forced him to roll out, before pinning him against the sideline. Once there he tended to panic, throwing errant passes rather than throwing the ball away or taking a sack. That should work again – especially if the Patriots can flush him to his left.
In the kicking game
Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets place kicker Greg Zuerlein (9) kicks a field goal in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium. Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The question on the minds of special teams nerds everywhere (myself included) is how the Patriots will follow up last week’s unique field goal block play with Brenden Schooler. What should we expect?
Many have pointed out that the play only worked against Miami because of the Patriots’ familiarity with Dolphins holder Jake Bailey. However, while it may be harder to find tells for other players, that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. If the Patriots think they can find a tell from somebody on the Jets’ field goal unit – kicker, snapper, holder, or anybody else – don’t be surprised if they try the play again.
Even if the tell isn’t as exact, it doesn’t mean the play can’t work. Take the Dolphins’ second field goal attempt last week. Schooler didn’t block the kick, but Jason Sanders missed wide, and was clearly looking at Schooler during his kicking motion. Getting into the peripheral of the kicker can sometimes be enough.
That being said, the Patriots can only try the play if the Jets attempt a field goal. It wouldn’t be the strangest think if the Jets simply…didn’t in this game.
There are a number of factors that are going to make field goals a pain for the Jets this week. Beyond the Patriots’ having that block play in their back pocket, Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein has been on the injury report all week with a right groin injury, which caused him to miss practice on Wednesday. On top of that, the forecast for Sunday calls for driving rain and wind in the mid-teens.
The Jets do have a kicker on their practice squad in Austin Seibert, but he just signed last week. If the Jets are uncomfortable with their field goal operation for any or all of the reasons above, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them get a bit more aggressive in potential field goal situations this week, or maybe even attempt some two-point conversions early in the game if they score. A stagnant offense could also help fuel that approach.
