Countering the blitz
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – OCTOBER 16: J.J. Watt #99 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates a tackle against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field on October 16, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)
The Patriots’ opponents over the last month and a half had some of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. This week, that’s not the case.
Arizona’s defense, led by former Denver Broncos head coach Vance Joseph, is blitzing 35.3 percent of the time this season per Pro Football Reference. That’s the third-highest blitz rate in the league. It’s come with mixed results – their 24.6 percent pressure rate is the fifth-highest in the league, but they’ve only managed to actually sack the quarterback 23 times, which ranks 24th.
Most of that pressure comes off the edge. On one side, the Cardinals have future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt, who leads the team with 6.5 sacks. 2019 third round pick and former Boston College star Zach Allen plays on the other end, and leads the team with 24 pressures.
This all means a couple of things for the Patriots, mainly centered around things they’ve struggled with this year. First and foremost, they need a big performance from their offensive line. Sloppy offensive line play will result in more of those pressures turning into sacks. Keeping that in mind, it could be another patchwork group up front as both starting tackles – Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown – missed practice time this week.
It also means Mac Jones will need to make some throws under pressure this week. While a good amount of the criticism towards Jones this year has been exaggerated at times, he’s undoubtably struggled as a passer when under pressure. When pressured this year, Jones passer rating drops to 29.23, compared to 104.96 when throwing from a clean pocket.
The Patriots would also benefit from calling concepts that naturally slow down pass rushers with misdirection. That includes play action, draws, end-arounds, screens, and RPOs. Many of those also have the benefit of getting the ball out of the quarterbacks’ hands quickly.
A chance to bounce back situationally
Nov 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver DeVante Parker (1) during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Among the Patriots’ offensive issues, an inability to produce in high-leverage situations may be their biggest road block right now. Through eight weeks, they’ve struggled both on third downs and in the red zone.
On the season, the Patriots are converting on third down just 36.2 percent of the time. That ranks 25th in the NFL. Since Jones returned as the full-time starter in Week 8, that number is at 30.1 percent, which ranks 28th in that time span. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ 37.5 percent touchdown conversion rate in the red zone is tied for dead last in the league with the Denver Broncos.
If the Patriots want to win the games they’ll need to win to get to the postseason, they’ll need to improve in those two areas. The good news is, this week is the perfect opportunity to do so.
As rough as it’s been for the Patriots in those situations offensively, the Cardinals haven’t been any better defensively. Opponents are converting 45 percent of their third downs against Arizona this year, the fifth-highest conversion percentage against in the NFL this year. In the red zone, no team has allowed touchdowns at a higher rate than the Cardinals, at 68.9 percent.
Something has to give here. Will the Patriots find something or things that work in these situations that they can carry over against stiffer competition the next few weeks? Or will it be the Cardinals playing trend breakers and further exacerbating the Patriots’ biggest issues?
Another mobile quarterback
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 06: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks in the first half at State Farm Stadium on November 06, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
The Patriots are back into the mobile quarterback gauntlet this week. After facing a bruising runner in Josh Allen a week ago, they’re now tasked with defending Murray, who is one of if not the fastest quarterback in the league.
One thing that favors the Patriots here is the fact that the Cardinals are running significant fewer designed runs for Murray. That adjustment may seem odd, but it makes sense when you add in the fact that they just agreed to pay him $230.5 million over the next five years. They want him to be healthy for the length of that contract.
That leaves the Patriots left to worry about Murray’s scrambling ability. In that regard, Murray is still very dangerous. In 10 games this year he’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 41.5 yards per game.
This is a big test for the speed the Patriots added on defense this offseason. When in zone middle linebackers will be the ones tasked with having eyes on Murray. In obvious passing downs, look for Raekwon McMillan and/or Mack Wilson to be the guy in that spot.
When the Patriots are in man, this is a game where it would make sense for them to use a spy. That could one of McMillan or Wilson as well, but in the past against some of the league’s fastest cornerbacks (ex. Lamar Jackson) they’ve used Jonathan Jones in that role as a sort of box safety, taking advantage of his raw speed.
The Patriots could turn to that game plan again, but it would be a tough test for the secondary given Arizona’s depth at receiver – especially if Jalen Mills can’t play. Could speedy rookie Marcus Jones, who has already proved to be a multi-dimensional impact player this season – get the call? Keep an eye out for what kind of tactics – potentially new ones – the Patriots use to keep Murray in the pocket and in structure.
Coverage assignments
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 13: DeAndre Hopkins #10 of the Arizona Cardinals catches a pass against Jalen Ramsey #5 of the Los Angeles Rams in the third quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
This game doesn’t represent the across-the-board chalk coverage assignments the Patriots have had in recent weeks. Look for them to get creative in scheming up the back end.
Of course, it all starts with All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who is the team’s leading receiver despite playing in just six of the Cardinals’ 12 games this year due to a PED suspension. “He’s got tremendous ball skills. He catches everything, has great hands, and he’s long so he’s never covered. Even if he’s covered, there’s a place where the ball can be that he can get it and still make the catch,” Bill Belichick noted earlier this week. “He’s every bit as good as anybody I’ve ever coached against.”
Facing superstar receivers the last two weeks in Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, the Patriots have gone strength-on-strength. They’ve had Jones – their top cornerback all year – matchup up on the other team’s ‘No. 1′ with help over the top.
Going back to that this week would be asking a lot of Jones though. As Belichick pointed out, Hopkins’ catch radius is an elite one. Putting the 5-foot-10 Jones on the 6-foot-1 Hopkins just feels like a gamble with the physical matchup, despite how well Jones has played for most of the season.
Plus, Jones’ speed may be needed on the other side of the formation anyway. Lining up opposite Hopkins in the Cardinals’ offense is Hollywood Brown, who fits more of the ‘burner’ prototype. In that one-on-one, Jones isn’t just a better matchup but should have an upper hand.
This could be a great opportunity for one of the more textbook Belichick coverage strategies. Put his No. 1 cornerback – in this case Jones – on the No. 2 receiver and take him out of the game. Then put a No. 2 corner on the No. 1 receiver with considerable help from the safety level, and force the quarterback to fit the ball into tight windows to hit his favorite target.
There is the issue of who will be the Patriots’ No. 2 in this game. Mills has missed two days of practice, putting his status up in the air. If he can’t go, it would likely be rookie Jack Jones drawing the assignment, and putting a rookie on Hopkins isn’t exactly ideal. Either way though, the Patriots get a bigger more physical corner on a physical receiver in Hopkins, and even if it is Jones, he’ll be assisted by veterans like Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, and Jabrill Peppers.
Even if Jones doesn’t cover Hopkins, he’ll still need to play a role given the Cardinals’ wide receiver depth and how often they like to use four wide receiver sets. Their other weapons include Robbie Anderson and A.J. Green. Rondale Moore plays in the slot, and assuming he’s healthy (he missed practice time this week) he’ll likely be Myles Bryant’s assignment.
Must-wins on the West Coast: Patriots vs. Cardinals What to Watch For
