Red Sox fans entered the offseason with the hopes of a rebuilt rotation after it sunk the team in 2023, but that hasn’t happened whatsoever. Going back to the Owners Meetings in November, Craig Breslow was making it clear he wanted to sign a bona fide starter or two. Yet, only Lucas Giolito has been brought in, who is currently slated to replace Chris Sale instead of adding to the group.
The stance I took at the start of the offseason was that if the Red Sox were serious about being “full throttle” and competing for a World Series, that Brayan Bello had to be your #3. He’s currently down in Fort Myers putting in the work to start on Opening Day, so that reality feels like nothing but a dream at this point. Jordan Montgomery remains on the market and feels like a perfect fit, but there hasn’t been any indication he’s close to calling Boston home, despite the Rangers not showing much interest as of late.
It’s not even worth getting into the Blake Snell conversation, considering he has a qualifying offer attached and the Red Sox reportedly haven’t been too interested in losing a draft pick. But with $201.88 MM on the books for 2023, there’s almost $36 MM to spend without any penalties outside spending money. That’s what makes Sam Kennedy’s recent comments about payroll likely being less than what it was last season ($225 MM) so maddening.
Beyond the team clearly needing help in the rotation for 2024, there’s a major hole moving forward. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford are the only arms you can pencil in for 2025, with Nick Pivetta being on the verge of free agency and Giolito having an opt-out that he’s hoping to exercise. It looks like Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Josh Winckowski will compete for the #5 spot in spring training, but there are serious concerns about all 3 starting long-term.
In 2023, Red Sox starters ranked 22nd in ERA (4.68), 20th in FIP (4.51), and 27th (774.1) in innings. Not a good combination for a team with any hopes of seriously competing. It heavily drained a bullpen that kept the team afloat for a large portion of the season, before the group finished 20th in ERA (4.32), 19th in FIP (4.21), and with the 4th-most innings (774.1 IP) thrown in baseball.
Even with rumors circulating about Kenley Jansen being flipped before pitchers and catchers report, I’m comfortable with the bullpen. Chris Martin will be a candidate to close after getting a Cy Young vote in 2023, along with whoever loses out on a rotation spot out of Houck and Whitlock. Sadly, I can’t say the same about the rotation if they don’t add an impact arm.
So, let’s dive into the current state of the Red Sox pitching staff.
FYI: All projections come from Steamer.
STARTING ROTATION
1. Brayan Bello
29 Starts – 169 IP – 4.30 ERA/4.12 FIP – 7.8 K/9 – 3.0 BB/9
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 24: Starting pitcher Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox throws against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Fenway Park on August 24, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
As of late, a common theme for the Red Sox has been putting a ton of pressure on young talent to carry the organization, and that’s no different with Bello. His first full season in the big leagues ended with him hitting a bit of a wall in September (7.62 ERA/4.91 FIP), but he flashed top of the rotation stuff from May through August with a 3.26 ERA/4.24 FIP over 20 starts. It was clear he had to work on missing bats with a subpar K% that left him in the 26th percentile, but he managed to keep a strong ground ball rate of 56.2% with an impressive 6.7 BB%.
Bello has been putting in the work this offseason, as he’s continued to refine a slider that resembles a sweeper more by the minute (check out the grip change). He’s also continued to work under the tutelage of Pedro Martinez for the second offseason in a row, which is the best resource possible with his build and arsenal. Since Winter Weekend wrapped-up, he’s been down at Fort Myers with the hopes of getting his first Opening Day nod.
The hope is Andrew Bailey will allow Bello to flourish in a similar way as Logan Webb. It feels like I’ll be saying that a lot in this write-up, but the Red Sox are betting heavily on their new pitching infrastructure to save the day. If this team has any hopes of competing in 2024, it starts and ends with Bello establishing himself as the top of the rotation arm they’re clearly lacking.
2. Lucas Giolito
31 Starts – 181 IP – 4.61 ERA/4.50 FIP – 9.2 K/9 – 3.4 BB/9
Sep 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) reacts after striking out Texas Rangers right fielder Robbie Grossman (not pictured) during the seventh inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
If the Red Sox had added a top of the rotation arm alongside Giolito, I feel like there’d be a lot more positivity towards this signing, but that’s not going to happen with his struggles the last two years (4.89 ERA/4.70 FIP in 63 starts). Yet, for a rotation that has been starving for an innings eater since Rick Porcello left, he checks that box off with at least 29 starts in every full season since 2018. Just looking back at least season alone though, he posted a 3.50 ERA/4.13 FIP with a 9.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in his first 15 starts before going through a divorce and switching teams twice.
Expecting Giolitio to be the guy who received Cy Young votes from 2019-2021 feels unrealistic, but that first-half production is right in line with his underlying metrics in 2022 (4.23 FIP). Cutting down on the homers (2.0 HR/9) and getting his 4-seamer (.264 xBA, .512 xSLG) back on track will go a long way towards stabilizing those numbers over a full season. It’s another project for Bailey to wrap his hands around, which seems to be well underway with Giolito saying there were already some mechanical adjustments they were incorporating back in December.
3. Nick Pivetta
36 Games/28 Starts – 163 IP – 4.46 ERA/4.31 FIP – 9.8 K/9 – 3.5 BB/9
Aug 9, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
2023 was a rollercoaster for Pivetta, who hit one of the lowest points of his career last May when he was demoted to the bullpen, but it led to him developing a sweeper (or “whirlybird”) that changed everything. He told David Laurila of Fangraphs that he decided to incorporate it after a conversation with Chris Martin in early June. From that point on, he posted a 3.14 ERA/3.31 FIP in 91.2 IP (24 G/8 GS) with a ridiculous 12.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
Another component of Pivetta reworking his arsenal was he found the velocity that was missing at the start of the year. Before May 28th, his 4-seamer averaged 93.4 MPH before jumping up to 95 MPH after that date. Now, it’s time to see if he can finally find the consistency he’s been lacking for a majority of his big league career.
The biggest strength in Pivetta’s game is his ability to eat innings. Pairing his durability with Giolito should hopefully go a long way towards keeping the bullpen fresh late into the season. I wonder if the Red Sox will try to lock him down for a couple more years if he looks the part in spring training, because if he replicates his 2023 resurgence in 2024, he’ll be getting PAID rather quickly by another team.
4. Kutter Crawford
43 Games/26 Starts – 154 IP – 4.66 ERA/4.55 FIP – 8.6 K/9 – 2.8 BB/9
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 03: Kutter Crawford #50 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after giving up a home run during the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Fenway Park on April 03, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
For quite some time, it felt like Crawford was consistently overlooked because of Whitlock and Houck having such tantalizing stuff, but that stopped in 2023. He now seems like a safer bet to be a long-term fixture in the starting rotation, thanks to a 4.20 ERA/3.64 FIP in 21 starts after joining the rotation on June 3rd. Not too shabby for a guy who started the year in Worcester as a depth option before landing in the big league bullpen and climbing the ranks of the pitching staff.
Crawford has become the poster boy for what the Red Sox pitching pipeline could be. He was never a top prospect in the system itself, topping out at #16 in SoxProspects.com’s rankings in April 2022. Now, he’s finishing in the 87th percentile for xERA and generating a 31.9% Chase Rate.
At the moment, Crawford’s biggest hurdle is working deeper into games. He was partially held back last season because he was being stretched out in June, but he only reached the 6 inning mark 5 different times (not including his 6.1 IP relief outing on Marathon Monday). It was clear hitters saw him well the 3rd time through the lineup, as they posted a 1.141 OPS across 49 total batters faced, which isn’t entirely surprising for a guy still adjusting to being a big league starter.
5. Garrett Whitlock
71 Games/3 Starts – 86 IP – 3.90 ERA/3.76 FIP – 9.1 K/9 – 2.1 BB/9
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JUNE 27: Garrett Whitlock #22 of the Boston Red Sox reacts during the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Fenway Park on June 27, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Figuring out the fifth rotation spot feels like a game of chicken. I was a strong supporter of the “Whitlock is a starter” movement going into 2023, but his elbow injuries have left me terrified about his long-term outlook. Still, after hearing he’s built his body up over the offseason and is ahead of schedule down in Fort Myers, I find myself going down this road again.
Whitlock flashed as a starter at different points last season, whether it was 7 shutout innings against the Angels or his 5-start stretch after coming off the IL the first time (3.60 ERA/3.09 FIP). Although, it felt like his stuff took a considerable step-back with the increased workload. A fair counter is that he was coming off a major hip surgery, which he acknowledged that it impacted him at different points last season, so I need to see what he looks like this spring.
It feels like Whitlock and Houck will be the battle to watch during camp. I’ve always envisioned Houck being a shutdown closer and there’s a chance that gets a big boost if Kenley Jansen is moved in the coming days. On the other hand, the Red Sox were heavily committed to Whitlock being a starter a year ago and that never wavered even after he was moved back to the bullpen.
This is just another spot where the impact of Bailey could transform a player’s outlook. If Whitlock’s stuff ticks back up and he looks like the Rick Porcello protege he was 12 months ago, it will be hard to ignore. Yes, the 5.23 ERA/4.47 FIP as a starter in 2023 was ugly, but with better defense (.340 BABIP) and a stronger frame, I’m guessing the Red Sox aren’t ready to give up on this dream.
BULLPEN
Closer: Kenley Jansen
64 Games – 64 IP – 4.14 ERA/4.04 FIP – 10.6 K/9 – 3.7 BB/9
Apr 29, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) gets a base hit to drive in the tie run against Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Kenley Jansen (74) in the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
I have a hard time believing Jansen will be on the Red Sox with the front office’s outlook for 2024. His comments about coming here to win a World Series still ring loud with me, along with his criticism of how the 2023 trade deadline was handled. If he sticks around though, he’ll obviously close once again for this team after posting a 3.63 ERA/3.66 FIP with 29 saves in 44.2 IP.
It just doesn’t make much sense to keep a veteran closer around for this season if you’re not pushing for the playoffs. Especially with a few different options on the roster. While you can always wait until the deadline to ship him out, he had a number of injuries flare up last season, so there’s plenty of risk that comes with waiting this thing out.
Set-Up Man: Chris Martin
66 Games – 66 IP – 3.76 ERA/3.60 FIP – 8.8 K/9 – 2.1 BB/9
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – AUGUST 01: Chris Martin #55 of the Boston Red Sox throws a pitch during the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on August 01, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
I’ll say it again, Martin received a Cy Young vote last season. It’s going to be hard to top a 434 ERA+ (51.1 IP), but he’s been on a different level since being traded to the Dodgers in 2022. Right now, he slots in perfectly in this bullpen as one of the best set-up guys in baseball.
If Jansen does get dealt, I believe Martin deserves a shot at the role. His ability to pound the zone is something this front office loves and he didn’t look overwhelmed while picking up 3 saves last season. It’s one thing if Houck wins a battle for it, but it’s pretty hard to shut Martin out of the conversation after one of the best relief seasons in Red Sox history.
RHP: John Schreiber
64 Games – 64 IP – 4.11 ERA/4.12 FIP – 9.0 K/9 – 3.6 BB/9
CLEVELAND, OH – JUNE 25: John Schreiber #46 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates striking out Amed Rosario of the Cleveland Guardians during the seventh inning at Progressive Field on June 25, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
If I were to describe Schreiber’s 2023, I’d call it mediocre. He finished last season with a 3.86 ERA/4.52 FIP in 46.2 IP, but saw his control take a serious step back and his ground ball rate crater. His BB/9 jumped from 2.6 in 2022 to 4.8 in 2023 with his GB% falling from 56.3% to 42%, which paved the way for his HR/9 tripling from 0.4 to 1.2.
Schreiber did deal with a right teres major strain in his right shoulder that cost him a chunk of the summer, but it didn’t help that his stuff was down across the boards before the injury. Still, he was a solid option out of the bullpen and the hope is he finds that 2022 gear again with a new cutter he’s been working on. Like Whitlock and Houck, he should be ahead of schedule after arriving down in Fort Myers on January 11th.
RHP: Tanner Houck
42 Games/23 Starts – 141 IP – 4.27 ERA/4.13 FIP – 8.4 K/9 – 3.2 BB/9
Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox pitches against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 16, 2023. (Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
Just like Whitlock, Houck was coming off a big surgery (back) going into 2023, so he wasn’t at full strength. Add in facial fractures and a hamstring injury that hampered him and it’s clear he was battling quite a bit. He’s already said that he feels better right now than he has in years at this point, which he put on display by facing hitters alongside Whitlock on Friday.
The most deflating part of Houck’s 2023 season was that he didn’t improve on his weaknesses as a starter very much. Lefties continued to be a nightmare for him as they slashed .271/.356/.502/.858 with 11 homers. Not to mention, his quest for a consistent third pitch is still a work in progress, as his splitter got hit to a .310 tune.
Houck continued to be ridiculous the first time through the lineup, as he posted a 2.91 ERA with a .212 BAA. It just felt like everything went off the rails in the 4th and 5th inning for him. His ERA jumped to an insane 12.74 when going through a lineup a third time, which goes hand and hand with the problems above.
I look back at summer of 2022 as a perfect representation of what Houck is capable of. He went 8 for 9 in save opportunities with a 2.33 ERA/3.32 FIP and seemed to thrive with the closer mentality. I also love the idea of him being able to get 4 or 5 outs in certain situations if the bullpen is running on fumes.
If the Red Sox had properly addressed their rotation, I’d want Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen together. Instead, we’re going to see if Bailey can do what Dave Bush couldn’t.
RHP: Josh Winckowski
69 Games/2 Starts – 76 IP – 4.17 ERA/4.14 FIP – 8.0 K/9 – 3.0 BB/9
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – APRIL 25: Josh Winckowski #25 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 25, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Winckowski is one of the most intriguing arms to follow this spring. He put together a fantastic season after transitioning to the bullpen in 2023 with a 2.88 ERA/3.91 FIP in 84.1 IP. Despite finding his groove in the big leagues though, the Red Sox are stretching him out as a starter again with the hopes of building some depth for the rotation.
Does this mean Winckowski is bound for Worcester like Kutter Crawford was a year ago until an injury popped up? I wouldn’t go that far, but the Red Sox have some intriguing arms battling for a bullpen spot between Isaiah Campbell, Greg Weissert, Justin Slaten, Zack Kelly, and Bryan Mata. Alex Cora alluded to a big league arm earlier in the offseason possibly getting sent down with so many options at their disposal.
I don’t love the idea of Winckowski starting and I expect Breslow to reach that conclusion rather quickly. His stuff ticked up in a big way because he was being used in bursts, which he also displayed in the Arizona Fall League a few years back. It won’t take long for Whitlock and Houck to put a chokehold on the last rotation spot, with Winckowski likely drifting back into a similar bullpen role as last year.
RHP: Isaiah Campbell
48 Games – 48 IP – 4.37 ERA/4.31 FIP – 8.6 K/9 – 3.7 BB/9
Aug 14, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Isaiah Campbell (49) pitches during the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Campbell, another Breslow addition, impressed after debuting with the Mariners in 2023. Across 28.2 innings, he formulated a 2.83 ERA/3.32 FIP with a 10.4 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. It was the first trade Breslow made after being hired as CBO and a nice preview of the arms that intrigue him (fastball/slider combo like Justin Slaten).
There’s some interesting flexibility with Campbell, who has two options remaining. If he has a rough spring or the Red Sox prefer to carry two lefties, he can be shuttled back and forth between Worcester whenever a fresh body is needed. So, he’s going to be battling for a spot throughout the spring, but I think he’s the favorite over less proven arms like Weissert, Kelly, and Mata.
LHP: Brennan Bernardino
58 Games – 58 IP – 3.95 ERA/4.00 FIP – 8.9 K/9 – 3.4 BB/9
Aug 6, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Brennan Bernardino (83) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Bernardino turned out to be another nice bullpen find by Chaim Bloom after being claimed by the Red Sox in the middle of April. Richard Bleier never worked out as the team’s primary lefty, but Bernardino ran away with the job thanks to a 3.20 ERA/3.41 FIP in 50.2 IP. He shined as an opener and in numerous spots out of the bullpen, showing the ability to miss bats with a 10.3 K/9 while not falling victim to a .338 BABIP.
There was a belief that the Red Sox might make a run at a lefty with a longer track record this offseason, but they seem confident that Bernardino is here to stay. Hard to ignore him finishing in the 90th percentile for Fastball Run Value, the 87th percentile for HardHit%, and the 91st percentile for GB%. Chris Murphy is next up on the depth chart, which is intriguing considering the numbers (1.59 ERA/2.97 FIP in his first 28.1 IP) he put up before becoming a casualty of the team’s pitching problems last year.
