On Wednesday afternoon, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones held his first mid-week press conference – a typical responsibility of any team’s starting QB – for the first time since a high ankle sprain held him out of three games. The way things timed out, he stepped to the podium shortly after a report from ESPN he team plans to start him for Sunday’s game against the Jets.

Jones wouldn’t confirm the report from ESPN. However he did give an interesting answer when asked – independently of the report – if he plans on starting on Sunday.

“I plan to start every game that I’ve ever played in. So whether that was in peewee football or third string at Alabama, I always try to prepare as a starter,” he explained. “Like I always say, if it’s one snap or 70, I’ll be ready to go. That’s all you can do, right? You can’t really control anything else. I work really hard and put myself in position to do that. Yes, I think I deserve that.”

While Jones somewhat snuck that last sentence in, it certainly stands out and is one of the more explosive things he’s said in his time in New England. He believes he deserves to be the starting quarterback for the team.

That’s an assessment many fans may disagree with, as was made perfectly clear Monday night. Yet it’s not their call, but rather Bill Belichick and his coaching staff. Why do they believe Jones ‘deserves’ to return as the starter? Let’s take a step back from the emotion of the week and take a closer look at the situation with the nuanced approach it deserves. Here’s a few reasons why the team would want to stick with Jones right now…

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It wasn’t his job to lose

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 24: Mac Jones #10 and Bailey Zappe #4 of the New England Patriots stand on the field prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium on October 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The idea that players can’t lose their job while they’re hurt has always been a bit of a myth in the NFL. But for the most part, it’s not as simple as getting demoted for missing time. Usually, the backup has to step up and win the job, rather than the original starter simply losing it.

Bailey Zappe certainly showed some flashes in the two-plus games he played over the last month. For the most part, he was able to do what the team asked of him, which is no small feat for a rookie quarterback – especially a guy making the kind of system shift Zappe did going from Western Kentucky’s spread offense to the pro style in New England.

Beyond the system change though, it’s tough to say Zappe went above and beyond in the chances he was given and actually showed enough to win the job. While the raw statistics may suggest that, what he was asked to do was very different than what Jones was asked to do in the offense.

For instance, Zappe was given play-action calls – which are designed to make things easier for the quarterback – at almost more than triple the rate of Jones. Heading into Week 7, with each quarterback having pretty much played three full games, the team called play-action 31.6 percent of the time for Zappe, and just 10.8 percent of the time for Jones, per PFF’s Doug Kyed.

Adding another layer – play-action calls are generally more effective from under center than in the shotgun (because there’s more movement involved in the play-fake). While both Jones and Zappe spent the heavy majority of their college careers working out of the shotgun, both have had success with under-center play-action in the pros. Once again, this was something the team took advantage of more with Zappe than Jones. Zappe’s under-center rate was 21.5 percent, while Jones’ was just 12.5 percent.

Other similar elements have been in play as well. For a team having issues with the offensive line – as has been the case at times for the Patriots – it may make sense to call plays with an extra pass protector involved. That can be either a running back or tight end staying in to block instead of releasing into the pattern, or even using a tackle-eligible sixth offensive lineman. Again, Zappe saw more of this than Jones for most of his reps.

The biggest difference when it comes to the play-calling though has been the type of route combinations each quarterback has gotten. Zappe’s offense for the most part has looked similar to what the Patriots ran last year, using the short and intermediate areas of the field to take advantage of high-percentage throws, then mixing in the occasional deep shot when the defense creeps up in response to those routes, as well as the running game. With Jones, the calls have been mostly vertical route concepts from the beginning.

Now, you may notice there are quite a few ‘for the most part’ qualifiers in the paragraphs above. That’s the final piece of the puzzle here. For Zappe’s two starts, he faced defenses ranked 28th (Browns) and 32nd, dead last (Lions) in the league. The Patriots led for most of those games, limiting how aggressive the opposing defense could play. Again, he certainly held his own in those spots, which is more than a lot of rookie quarterbacks could probably do. But he led the team to just one touchdown on nine drives against Detroit, and only two full-field touchdowns – the other two started in the red zone after turnovers – against Cleveland on the 10 drives that began on the wrong side of the 50.

Zappe’s first real test came against the Bears, when he was tasked with erasing a two-score deficit against the league’s seventh-ranked defense. He did for a moment at the end of the first half, but the two three-and-outs in the third quarter – when some of the more Jones-like play-calls began getting mixed in due to the lopsided score – were killer. He went 2-for-4 for 18 yards on those six plays, while taking an eight-yard sack on third down.

One more time – this isn’t all to say that Zappe doesn’t belong. He certainly succeeded the expectations, especially given the circumstances of split practice reps and having to work in a new offensive system. He’s proven he has a place in the league, and assuming his development continues on its current trajectory should have a long NFL career ahead of him in New England or elsewhere. But there’s a difference between that and winning the starting quarterback job. Based on what we’ve seen the last few weeks, that job should – and apparently still does – belong to Jones. And before you rush to call out Jones bias here, keep in mind this is all coming from the same person who started talking about the Patriots drafting Zappe back in January.

An additional note of all of this though, assuming Jones does stay the starter. There are reasons the offense Zappe was running worked so well for him, and Zappe and Jones have similar skillsets. Jones remaining the starter does not necessarily mean the team needs to continue the offensive strategy it used through the first three weeks before Jones got hurt, or in the first quarter against Chicago. Look for presumed play-caller Matt Patricia to mix in some more of what can be called either the ‘Zappe Offense’ or ‘2021 Offense’ moving forward.

If Jones doesn’t turn it around, or simply isn’t put in a position to do so, he could still lose the job in the future. Zappe has certainly closed the gap. But things aren’t there quite yet, especially since Jones has yet to really play post-injury.

He doesn’t appear to have lost the locker room

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 24: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots takes the field prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium on October 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The thing about making a quarterback change it that it impacts more than the on-field offense. That kind of move can test and even alter the chemistry and identity of a team.

Players who were with the team in 2001 have talked about how Tom Brady won over the locker room while Drew Bledsoe was out with an injury. His popularity with his teammates helped facilitate that switch.

To this point, it doesn’t appear as though Jones’ stock has faded with his teammates. On Wednesday, multiple team leaders gave strong showings of support for the second-year quarterback.

“I think he’s done a tremendous job in terms of being a leader for this team and how he’s handled it. He’s handled it in a very professional manner,” Matthew Slater, a team captain and the team’s longest-tenured player said on Wednesday. “He’s been a good teammate through it all. And I think because of that, you don’t get the sense of division or anything like that.”

Slater was also asked directly if he ‘still feels like this is [Jones’] team.’ “I do, I still feel that way,” Slater replied. “I still have a lot of confidence in him as a player, and him as a person.”

“We don’t have division,” safety Devin McCourty, another team captain, added.

That support goes back further than Wednesday. Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers gave a full-fledge support of Jones late last week, saying “he’s the guy that was kind of getting us all together all year, even the OTAs, you’ll hear his voice the most. Just that leadership, bringing that back to the team, and he’s going to make plays, he’s a dawg on the field too. So, he’s going to go out there, and hopefully he can play, and we can see him spin it around a little bit.”

Meyers’ sentiment continued with strong words after the game, calling the situation in which Jones was pulled and the fan reaction “ugly.” There were also reports of other offensive players “apologizing” to Jones for the way things played out.

It doesn’t seem like players in the locker room, from key leaders on down, are ready to move on from Jones just yet. Given the temperature in the room likely should play a factor into any decision about a quarterback switch, this is a key element in the ‘stay with Mac’ column.

Once he’s out, he’s out

Patriot coaches Joe Judge and Matt Patricia confer as they talk with QN Bailey Zappe as QB Mac Jones studies his play list on his wrist after Jones was replaced by Zappe during the 2nd quarter. (Bob Breidenbach/USA Today Network)

It’s very easy to get caught up in the short term of everything that’s happening with the Patriots right now. They’re coming off an embarrassing loss to a supposedly inferior team on national television. With that loss, they’re now under .500 this late in a season for the first time in 22 years. Looking for the quickest answer to get back to a level is in some ways the natural response.

But an extreme gut reaction isn’t always what’s best, especially in the long-term. The point of pulling Jones right now would be what, to make a statement? There’s no guarantee – especially after seeing the second half Monday night, that Zappe would be the guy to fix things.

Then what happens? It would be incredibly tough to go back to Jones after benching him just a year and a half after selecting him in the first round. The team would be stuck in a spot where they’d have to bank on Zappe’s development – not that different of a spot than they’re in right now with Jones – or head back to square zero and begin another quarterback search just two years after having seemingly completed one.

That third option would essentially mean another reset or rebuild. Pretty much new quarterback is going to be a guaranteed hit at that point in free agency or the draft (save the conspiracy theories about a Brady return for one last ride), and could throw the team’s current five-year window, of which they’re in Year 2, to the wind. Key players with their contracts winding down such as Matthew Judon, Kyle Dugger, Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian Barmore, and others suddenly would no longer be part of the team’s next contending window. Basically, it would be back to January 2021.

The team doesn’t have to stick with Jones forever. There will come a time to decide whether or not he is the guy to lead the franchise for the long-term. But making that decision now would be rash and reactionary, and would be doing so without enough information.

Forcing the team into a rebuilding state right now just doesn’t make sense. For one, if Jones is as bad as some people think he is (he’s not, but just for the sake of argument), the team will have a high enough pick to reset the quarterback position without creating a midseason mess. That’s not unheard of – it’s basically what the Jets did in 2020.

There’s also the chance of course that, assuming the coaching staff gets behind him, he turns things around and starts to trend back towards the ceiling he showed during his rookie season in 2021. With that option on the table, it’s just too soon to turn away.

Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.