In recent years, the Patriots – and Bill Belichick in particular – have received a great deal of criticism for their subpar drafting. The real question is, have they been as bad at drafting as fans and media believe? I went through every Patriots draft since 2016 and assessed the success of every early-round (1st-3rd) draft pick relative to the players at the same position who were available at the time.
2016
The Patriots forfeited their first-round pick as part of their punishment for Deflategate. With their first selection, Belichick drafted CB Cyrus Jones 60th overall, who played 12 games for the Patriots his rookie season before tearing his ACL and missing the entire 2017 season. He was released in October 2018 and played in just 19 games with the Ravens.
The Patriots then traded the 61st overall pick to the Saints (for picks 78 and 112), who used it to draft safety Vonn Bell. The Patriots passed on the opportunity with these two picks to draft former Pro Bowler & Second Team All-Pro James Bradberry, who was drafted just after Bell with the 62nd overall pick.
In the third round, with the 78th overall pick, the Patriots drafted OG Joe Thuney. Aside from Belichick allowing him to walk in free agency in 2021, Thuney was a perfect pick. He has started in every game of his career between the Patriots and Chiefs, winning four Super Bowls and receiving two First Team All-Pro honors and one Second Team All-Pro nod.
With the 91st overall pick, Belichick selected QB Jacoby Brissett. After playing in three games in relief of Brady and Garoppolo in 2016, the Patriots traded Brissett to the Colts for WR Phillip Dorsett during the 2017 offseason. Brissett has 53 touchdowns, 24 interceptions and 134.1 passing YPG in 85 career games in the NFL.
Although Brissett has had a better career than the likes of Cody Kessler (93rd overall), Connor Cook (100th) and Cardale Jones (139th), the Patriots passed on the opportunity to draft 2023’s MVP runner-up at quarterback, Dak Prescott. Who knows if Prescott would have developed the same if the Patriots had drafted him, but he is clearly a better NFL quarterback than Brissett in hindsight.
With their third and final third-round selection, the Patriots drafted defensive tackle Vincent Valentine. Valentine played in 16 games his rookie season, logging 1 sack and 19 tackles. He injured his knee and missed the entire 2017 season on injured reserve. The Patriots cut Valentine in September 2018, and he played just three more games in the NFL for the Cardinals.
The Patriots missed on multiple notable defensive tackles, including Sheldon Day (103rd overall), Hassan Ridgeway (116th), David Onyemata (120th) and Andrew Billings (122nd). Onyemata has been the best of the bunch, racking up 321 tackles, 39 tackles for loss, 28 sacks and 81 quarterback hits in nine seasons.
Jan 20, 2019; Kansas City, MO: New England Patriots defensive end Derek Rivers during the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Chiefs 37-31 in overtime to advance to fifth Super Bowl in eight seasons. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
2017
The Patriots traded the 32nd overall pick to the Saints in exchange for wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks lasted just one season with the Patriots, although serving as Tom Brady’s no. 1 target in 2017, before he was traded the next offseason for the Rams’ first-round pick.
The Saints selected offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk with the pick, who earned First Team All-Pro honors in 2019, Second Team All-Pro honors in 2018 and 2020, and allowed just 19 sacks in 6,506 snaps across 7 seasons at right tackle in his career. The Patriots also passed on receivers Zay Jones (37th overall), Curtis Samuel (40th), JuJu Smith-Schuster (62nd) and Cooper Kupp (69th) – the former Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP – with the pick.
Belichick also traded away the 64th overall pick to the Panthers in exchange for the 72nd overall pick and defensive end Kony Ealy, who never played a snap for New England. Dawuane Smoot was drafted just four picks later, racking up 25 sacks, 145 tackles, 30 tackles for loss, and six forced fumbles across over 100 career games. The Patriots also missed on Tarell Basham, who had 11 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and five forced fumbles in his career after being selected 80th.
The Patriots used the 72nd overall pick to trade back with the Titans, receiving picks 83 and 124. Using pick 83, Belichick drafted defensive end Derek Rivers. Rivers missed his first and third NFL seasons with two separate torn ACL injuries, and only recorded 2.5 sacks, six tackles and two tackles for loss in 14 games between 2018 and 2020. He was waived in November 2020 and played just ten games with the Rams and Texans through the end of 2021.
The Patriots could have selected Trey Hendrickson, who was taken with the 103rd overall pick and has racked up 202 tackles, 70.5 sacks, 64 tackles for loss, and 13 forced fumbles over eight seasons and counting. Hendrickson also finished Week 10, 2024 as the NFL’s leader in sacks with 11.
Then, Belichick traded up to draft offensive tackle Antonio Garcia with the 85th overall pick. Garcia never played a snap in the NFL and was waived by New England in the 2018 offseason. Not many notable tackles were drafted after Garcia apart from Julién Davenport at 130th overall. Davenport played five seasons in the NFL, starting 32 of his 60 games played through the 2021 season before bouncing around NFL rosters and practice squads through September 2024.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – FEBRUARY 03: Sony Michel #26 of the New England Patriots scores a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams in the fourth quarter during Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on February 03, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
2018
In the first round, Bill Belichick flipped Brandin Cooks for the 23rd overall pick, with which he selected offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn. Wynn was an undersized tackle who many projected to move inside to guard at the next level, but Belichick kept him as Tom Brady’s blindside blocker. Due to injuries and inconsistency, Wynn played in just 43 games over four seasons before the Patriots let him walk and sign with the Dolphins in the 2023 offseason. 39 picks after Wynn was drafted, one-time Pro Bowler Brian O’Neill was drafted, starting 98 games and allowing just 18 sacks over 6,493 snaps.
With the second-to-last selection in the first round, the Patriots selected running back Sony Michel. Although Michel averaged 4.3 yards per carry in three seasons with New England, and despite scoring the lone touchdown in the Patriots’ Super Bowl LIII victory, Michel never panned out the way the Patriots hoped, and was shipped to the Rams ahead of the 2021 season for two Day 3 picks.
If the Patriots had anticipated Tom Brady’s departure after the 2019 season, Belichick could have selected Lamar Jackson (who was taken the next pick) to be their quarterback of the future. The real miss, however, was Nick Chubb, who shared a backfield with Michel at Georgia. Chubb has become one of the most consistent running backs in NFL history, averaging 5.2 yards per carry (tied with Jim Brown for second-highest all-time among running backs with at least 750 rushing attempts) to go with 49 touchdowns and four Pro Bowl selections.
Belichick used the 56th overall pick to select cornerback Duke Dawson, who spent the first two months of his rookie season nursing a hamstring injury. Dawson never saw the field for New England and was traded to the Broncos ahead of his second season along with a 7th round pick for the Broncos’ sixth rounder in 2020. The pick was an unmitigated disaster, especially since longtime starting cornerback Carlton Davis III was selected seven picks later. Davis has started 84 games in his career, logging 371 tackles, 83 passes defensed and 11 interceptions through his first 7.5 seasons.
The Patriots’ best move in this draft came in the third round, when they traded the 95th pick to the 49ers in exchange for offensive tackle Trent Brown and the fifth rounder that eventually became current Patriots captain Ja’Whuan Bentley. No other notable offensive tackles were taken in the same range as the selection, and Brown was a key piece for the Patriots in their Super Bowl campaign the following season.
Dec 26, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver N’Keal Harry (1) during warmups prior to a game agains the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
2019
The 32nd overall pick in this draft is one of the most infamous Patriots draft picks in recent memory. With high-profile wide receivers still on the board including Deebo Samuel and Ole Miss teammates A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf, the Patriots had the opportunity to select a game-changing playmaker to elevate the offense and – hopefully – persuade Tom Brady to stay in Foxboro. Instead, Belichick selected Arizona State receiver N’Keal Harry. Harry dealt with injuries early in his career before producing just 57 receptions, 598 yards and four touchdowns in three seasons with the Patriots. Ahead of the 2022 season, Harry was traded to the Chicago Bears for a 7th round pick which the Patriots just used to select tight end Jaheim Bell.
A.J. Brown, a lifelong Patriots fan, has gone on the record multiple times admitting that he cried on draft night when the Patriots passed on him. He would have been a fan favorite in New England, but he has instead starred with the Titans and Eagles, en route to 412 catches, 6,565 yards, 45 touchdowns, and two Second Team All-Pro selections through five seasons and counting in the NFL.
In the second round, Belichick dipped back into the cornerback pool and struck out for the second year in a row. He traded up to select Joejuan Williams at pick 45, but Williams played in just 36 games and did not record an interception with the Patriots in three seasons. The Patriots missed out on a run on corners that included Byron Murphy (33rd overall), Rock Ya-Sin (34) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (39). Had Belichick taken Lonnie Johnson, who was drafted nine picks later, he would have landed a corner with 196 tackles, 15 passes defensed, and four interceptions across 77 games thus far in his career.
At the end of the second round, Belichick traded away the 64th pick to Seattle, which was used to draft two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver DK Metcalf. In return, the Patriots received pick 77 (along with pick 118), which he used to draft defensive end Chase Winovich. The Michigan product registered 12 sacks, 107 tackles and 11 tackles for loss in three seasons with New England before he was shipped to the Browns in a player swap for linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. At the start of the fourth round, the Raiders drafted defensive end Maxx Crosby, who has blossomed into one of the most dominant edge rushers in the NFL today and has notched 58.5 sacks, 99 tackles for loss, nine forced fumbles, and multiple Second Team All-Pro selections in his career so far.
After yet another trade-back, the Patriots then took running back Damien Harris with the 87th pick. Harris started 34 games in New England and averaged 4.7 yards per attempt to go along with 20 rushing touchdowns in his four injury-riddled seasons with the Patriots. Harris signed with the division rival Buffalo Bills ahead of the 2023 season and registered just 23 carries before suffering a neck injury that eventually caused him to medically retire from football. With the pick the Patriots gave up to trade back in the draft, the Bears drafted power back David Montgomery, who has racked up 5,144 yards and 47 rushing touchdowns in his career, although with worse efficiency (4.1 yards per carry).
Then, with the 101st pick, Belichick drafted offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste. Cajuste played in just 17 games for the Patriots between 2021-22 after spending his first two seasons in the NFL on injured reserve with quad and knee injuries, respectively. There were a few tackles drafted much further down the board than Cajuste, including Justin Skule (183rd), Oli Udoh (193rd), and Dennis Daley (212nd), whose careers panned out better than Cajuste’s. Skule has the strongest résumé, with 16 starts across 59 games at tackle, including four so far this season with the Buccaneers.
FOXBOROUGH, MA – JANUARY 03: Devin Asiasi #86 of the New England Patriots catches a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter of a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on January 3, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images)
2020
The Patriots began the 2020 draft without a second round pick due to an abysmal in-season trade for wide receiver Mohamed Sanu Sr. As a result, Belichick traded away the 23rd pick for picks 37 and 71. With the 37th pick, the Patriots selected future captain, safety Kyle Dugger out of Division-II Lenoir-Rhyne. Dugger has been in and out of New England’s lineup this season due to injuries, but has 378 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, and nine interceptions in over four seasons.
Despite his productivity, the Patriots could have selected reigning First Team All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. The former Golden Gopher has outproduced Dugger with 432 tackles and 11 forced fumbles, but is just behind Dugger in interceptions (7) and tackles for loss (19). Regardless, the Dugger selection can be chalked up as a success thus far.
Using the picks 71 and 98, the Patriots traded up to 60th overall to grab outside linebacker Joshua Uche. After a slow start to his career, Uche had a career year in 2022 opposite Matthew Judon, with 11.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss. In his career, Uche has 20.5 sacks, 19 tackles for loss, 78 tackles and two forced fumbles. He signed a one-year extension with the Patriots this past offseason, but was traded to the Chiefs midseason for a 2026 sixth round pick after being relegated to a diminished role. Despite his underwhelming production, Uche has outperformed his positional counterparts drafted after him, including Julian Okwara (67th overall) and Zack Baun (74th).
With the 87th pick, Belichick double-dipped at outside linebacker with Anfernee Jennings. Jennings has seen an increased role in the Patriots’ defense over the past two seasons, but he only has 161 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and one forced fumble in 54 career games so far. Belichick could have taken emerging Steelers’ star Alex Highsmith, who was selected 102nd. Highsmith has 32.5 sacks, 44 tackles for loss, eight forced fumbles, and 261 tackles in 72 games and has become part of a dynamic pass rush duo with T.J. Watt.
The Patriots then took two swings at tight ends at the end of the third round, taking Devin Asiasi at 91 and Dalton Keene at 101. The duo combined for five catches, 55 yards and one touchdown in 15 total games and both were waived ahead of the 2022 season. Although there were no standout tight ends drafted in that range, Belichick missed on production from Josiah Deguara (94th) and Adam Trautman (105th). Deguara and Trautman have combined for 139 catches, 1,446 yards and ten touchdowns in 128 games in their careers.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 26: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots fumbles the ball while being tackled by Kayvon Thibodeaux #5 of the New York Giants during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium on November 26, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
2021
At 15th overall, the Patriots were backed into a corner, as they hoped to draft a quarterback, but only Mac Jones was available. Jones was selected as a Pro Bowl alternate his rookie year and was the runner-up for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but his production dipped in 2022 before he was eventually benched in favor of Bailey Zappe in 2023. The former Heisman finalist had a sub-.500 record with 46 touchdowns and 36 interceptions in his three seasons with New England. Jones is now starting for Jacksonville in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence, but the latter is the only cemented starting quarterback to come out of the 2021 draft.
Belichick then traded up in the second round to select Christian Barmore with the 38th pick. Barmore started his career slowly, but has developed into one of the more impactful players on the Patriots’ defense. In 44 games, Barmore has 12.5 sacks, 18 tackles for loss, and 74 tackles. He has yet to play in the 2024 season due to blood clots, but the team has yet to close the door on a potential return before the end of the season. He was taken 34 picks ahead of Alim McNeill, who has one fewer sack, three more tackles for loss and 56 more total tackles than Barmore in his career, and has played in 12 more games.
Because of repercussions from recording the Bengals’ sideline, the Patriots forfeited their third round pick, but received a compensatory pick – 96th overall – with which they selected edge rusher Ronnie Perkins. The Oklahoma product missed each of his first two seasons due to injury and was released before playing a down in New England. He played in seven games for the Broncos last season and is now on the Cardinals practice squad. The most notable edge defender taken after Perkins was Cameron Sample (111th), who has not cracked an NFL roster during the 2024 season. Sample had 68 tackles, 5 sacks and 6 tackles for loss in 47 games through the 2023 season.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Tyquan Thornton #11 of the New England Patriots reacts during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
2022
After trading the 21st pick to Kansas City in exchange for picks 29, 94 and 121, the Patriots selected interior lineman Cole Strange out of Chattanooga. The pick was widely considered a reach, and a video of Sean McVay laughing at the selection went viral on draft night. Strange started 27 games between 2022-23, but he tore his patellar tendon in Week 15 against the Chiefs last season and is still on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. The Patriots could have taken Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum had they stayed at pick 21. Linderbaum has committed 15 penalties and allowed three sacks (none since his rookie season) for the Ravens in his young career, and has started all 42 of his games played.
Belichick then flipped picks 54 and 158 to the Chiefs and moved up to select Baylor speedster Tyquan Thornton at pick 50. The pick was also criticized at the time and has not panned out well. Thornton has 39 catches, 385 yards and two touchdowns in his career so far, and he was taken two picks ahead of emerging star George Pickens. The Steelers receiver has 155 receptions, 2,580 yards and 11 touchdowns in his career and only seems to be getting better by the week.
With pick 85, the Patriots drafted cornerback Marcus Jones. The undersized corner missed 15 games last season with a shoulder injury, but has recorded 78 tackles, three tackles for loss, three interceptions and 12 pass breakups in 27 games in his career. He also received First Team All-Pro honors as a punt returner in 2022 after averaging 12.3 yards per return and scoring a touchdown.
As a pure cover corner, Jones has not stacked up to Coby Bryant, the Seahawks corner taken with the 109th pick – Bryant has 116 tackles, four tackles for loss and nine interceptions so far in his career – but his impact as a punt returner and gadget offensive player has arguably been enough to compensate.
Aug 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Marte Mapu (30) warms up before a game against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
2023
In the first round, Belichick traded down from 14th overall to select cornerback Christian Gonzalez at 17. The Patriots passed on Emmanuel Forbes with the move, and drafted Gonzalez over Deonte Banks (24th overall), Joey Porter Jr. (32nd), JuJu Brents (44th) and Tyrique Stevenson (56th). Gonzalez only played in four games in 2023 due to a torn labrum, but he was an early-season favorite to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year before his injury and has been used to shadow opponents’ top wide receivers for much of the 2024 season. Although it is too early to know how these corners will pan out, Gonzalez already looks better than Forbes, Banks, Brents and Stevenson. Moving forward, keep an eye on Porter Jr., who was an All-Rookie team selection for the Steelers and has started in 20 of 26 career games so far.
At 46th overall, the Patriots selected defensive end Keion White. White was expected to provide an instant impact in 2023, but he underwhelmed during his rookie season. He started the 2024 season hot, logging four sacks in the first two weeks of the season, but has cooled off and come back down to earth. In 26 career games, White has 68 tackles, six sacks, ten tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. It remains to be seen what White’s ceiling is in the NFL, but multiple edge rushers have had early success despite being drafted later than White – Tuli Tuipulotu (54th), Byron Young (77th), and YaYa Diaby (82nd). Young has starred early with the Rams, tallying 13 sacks, 96 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles, all out-pacing White to this point.
In the third round, Belichick used the 76th pick to take safety Marte Mapu. The Sacramento State alum had trouble getting on the field in his rookie season, only playing 18% of the Patriots’ defensive snaps. In 2024, Mapu has 5 starts in 6 games, largely due to injuries and off-field issues, and now has 45 tackles, 0.5 sacks, one interception and two forced fumbles in his young career. The Patriots could have selected either Ji’Ayir Brown (87th overall) or Jordan Battle (95th), both of which have outproduced Mapu to this point. Battle has the most production of the three, with 94 tackles, seven passes defensed, one interception, two sacks and four tackles for loss.
Patriots receiver Ja’Lynn Polk pulls in an endzone reception before being ruled out out of bounds due to the toe-heel rule in the final seconds of the 4th quarter. (Kris Craig/The Providence Journal/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
2024
The Patriots new regime, headed by Eliot Wolf, drafted North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick. Maye has a 2-3 record in five career starts (1-3 in games he started and finished) and has quickly shown flashes. He has single-handedly carried the Patriots offense multiple times this season, accounting for 95% of the offense in New England’s Week 9 loss to the Titans. Although it is far too early to know how Maye stacks up against his fellow rookie quarterbacks, he has clearly outperformed Caleb Williams (1st overall) and Spencer Rattler (150th), but Jayden Daniels (2nd) is the overwhelming favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year despite a rough performance in last night’s primetime loss to the Eagles.
Wolf’s second pick as Patriots general manager has looked rough through ten games. The Patriots traded the 34th and 137th picks to the Chargers in exchange for picks 37 and 110. The Chargers proceeded to draft wide receiver Ladd McConkey at 34, and the Patriots took Ja’Lynn Polk. McConkey has already cemented himself as one of Justin Herbert’s top targets, hauling in 37 passes for 492 yards and four touchdowns in the first ten games of his career. Polk, on the other hand, has been criticized for his comments in the media amidst issues with drops and penalties. He only has 11 catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns this season in nine games and his snap count has been volatile from game to game.
Then, in the third round, the Patriots selected a project left tackle in Caedan Wallace (68th overall). The former Nittany Lion played right tackle in college across from Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. Due to injuries and inconsistencies at left tackle, Wallace has played in four games this season including one start, but has been on injured reserve with an ankle injury since the Patriots’ Week 4 loss to the 49ers.
He was drafted above Kiran Amegadjie (75th), DJ Glaze (77th) and Matt Goncalves (79th). Amegadjie and Goncalves have played similar roles to Wallace when healthy, but Glaze has already started in six of nine games for the Raiders this season.
***Story written by Aidan Murphy, University of New Hampshire
