If there’s one thing from this past weekend to for sure celebrate as New England begins their work week, it’s that the Red Sox by all means buried the Yankees out of the postseason picture by way of their three-game sweep.
In the Bronx for a three-game set with the Bombers, the Red Sox beat the Yankees with authority on both Friday and Saturday, and even staved off a late-game comeback from New York in Sunday’s finale. The sweep dropped Aaron Boone’s squad to a staggering nine games back of the final wild card spot in the American League, and with just 38 games left in their season.
It’s enough to leave the Yankees with a one percent chance of qualifying for the 2023 MLB playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
No matter the year, and no matter the situation, helping bury the Yankees is something all of Boston can always get behind.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 20: Kenley Jansen #74 reacts with Connor Wong #12 of the Boston Red Sox after the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on August 20, 2023 in the Bronx. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
But Boston’s sweep did more than just put their bitter rivals six feet under.
More importantly, it allowed the Sox to keep pace with an absolutely unrelenting wild card race, with the Sox opening Monday three games behind Seattle for the final playoff spot. And like Chaim Bloom said after the 2023 trade deadline came and went without a substantial add for the club, the Red Sox remain underdogs, with FanGraphs giving the Red Sox a 14.2 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason. (That’s almost 10 percent lower than it was when Bloom made those comments at the beginning of the month, by the way.)
But if the graphs are spelling doom, it likely has to do with the make-or-break schedule that awaits the club beginning this week, with Monday kicking off a 10-in-10 stretch that includes four against the Astros at Minute Maid Park, three against the Dodgers back home at Fenway, and then another three against the Astros with Houston coming to town.
This is not the teeth of the schedule, no. It’s the damn poison fangs.
And it’ll almost certainly decide Boston’s playoff fate.
Aug 19, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Yainer Diaz (21) is greeted by Houston Astros left fielder Mauricio Dubon (14) after hitting a home run against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. (Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports)
Now, to say that Boston’s upcoming four-game road series against the Astros is huge is perhaps the understatement of the year. This is actually the first time that Cora’s squad has seen the Astros this year, and Houston will take the field in this series with a bit of a bad taste in their mouths.
On the wrong end of a three-game sweep themselves, the Astros will look to avoid a fourth straight loss Monday night when the Sox come to town. To put the rarity of ‘extended’ losing streaks in Houston into perspective, the Astros found themselves stuck in the mud of a five-game skid back in June, and it was actually their first losing streak of at least five games since Apr. 2021.
This is by all means a double-whammy kind of series for each team, too, as the Astros enter this series with a half-game lead for the final playoff spot in the AL, while the Red Sox are 3.5 games behind Houston. Forgetting about the teams in between the Astros and Red Sox (and that’s the Mariners and Blue Jays) for a second, those are some massive game-to-game swings for each club depending on the final result.
The Astros are expected to hit the Red Sox with Cristian Javier (8-2 record with 112 strikeouts in 122.1 innings), Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy (3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox), and J.P. France (9-4 with a 2.75 ERA on the year) in this series.
And while the Sox will battle the Dodgers in between their series with the ‘Stros, Houston will get a three-game set with the 57-67 Tigers.
That’s some potential season-altering separation on the line all week long.
Aug 20, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; The Seattle Mariners infielders congratulate each other after the final out against the Houston Astros during the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. (Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports)
Elsewhere in the race, there’s not a team hotter than the Mariners.
Led by the white-hot Julio Rodriguez, the M’s have rattled off wins in six straight and made it absolutely impossible for the Red Sox to make up any ground in the wild card race.
Making up ground has been a challenging task for the Red Sox no matter the team in front of them, actually, as the Sox were three games out of the final wild card spot exactly one month ago. The only difference is that on July 20, it was the Astros who held the three-game edge over Boston for the final wild card spot.
But with the Mariners clinging to that third and final spot, they’ll kick off their week with a three-game set against the White Sox, have a day off and then start a three-game set against the Royals, and then start a three-game set with the Athletics. Those are the three worst teams in the American League, and in that order, too.
The Mariners are not like the Red Sox in the sense that they struggle against inferior competition, either, as they’ve compiled a 12-2 record against those three teams in 2023.
In essence, making up ground on Seattle isn’t going to get any easier.
It may be about keeping pace more than anything else, really.
Aug 20, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Bowden Francis (44) reacts with catcher Danny Jansen (9) after the Blue Jays defeated the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. (David Kohl/USA TODAY Sports)
Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays find themselves chasing the sizzlin’ Mariners for the final wild card spot in the American League. Toronto begins the week as the closest club to catching ’em, too, as they sit a mere half game back of Seattle by way of having one more loss than the Mariners.
And after securing a series victory over the Reds with a Sunday victory, Toronto will have Monday off before beginning a three-game series with the division-leading Orioles on Tuesday.
The good news for the Red Sox is that the Orioles have been an absolute nightmare for the Jays in 2023, with Toronto dropping eight of their 10 head-to-heads with the O’s in 2023.
Following their series with the Orioles, the Blue Jays will return home and take on the Guardians in a three-game set (Toronto is 2-2 against Cleveland this year) and then host the Nationals for a three-game set.
Aug 18, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) and right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) congratulate each other after defeating the New York Yankees 8-3 at Yankee Stadium. (Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports)
The schedules both for themselves and those they’re chasing paints a stressful picture for the Red Sox.
It’s of course worth noting that the Sox have typically saved their best play for top-tier opponents, however, and the numbers confirm as much, as the Red Sox have consistently been one of the game’s top teams when going against opponents with an over .500 record. And the Sox are certainly going to get their fill of such opponents over the next 10 days with a pair of series against the Astros and a three-game set against the Dodgers.
There’s some comfort in the Red Sox proving that they can handle their business against quality competition.
But with the spot they’re in, they’re going to need help from the outside, and upsets that allow them to make up some ground in the wild card hunt. In fact, it’s their only option this late into the season.
For Cora’s squad, it’s time to make the math break their way.
