Bruins, Jeremy Swayman present their numbers ahead of arbitration

With a potential arbitration hearing set for the weekend, the Bruins and restricted free agent goaltender Jeremy Swayman have finally and officially filed their respective desired numbers for a potential 2023-24 salary.

And there's certainly an expected gap between the two filings, with the Bruins coming in with a $2 million filing compared to a $4.8 million from Swayman's camp, as revealed by Sportnet's Elliotte Friedman.

As for what the numbers themselves means for both parties, the gap is sizable, but nothing worth fretting over. As is the case with any potential arbitration hearing, the player's camp comes in high while the team comes in lower. Should it ultimately get to arbitration, the third-party arbitrator almost always finds a way to meet the sides in the middle.

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The Bruins, Swayman, and the rest of the league just saw this very sequence play out with the Maple Leafs and goaltender Ilya Samsonov. Toronto's starting goaltender (or 1B at the very worst), Samsonov was awarded $3.55 million in his arbitration hearing last week, which was an almost perfect split down the middle after the Leafs filed at $2.4 million while Samsonov's camp filed at $4.9 million.

It's procedural and expected from both sides, of course, but the difference in the arbitration filings only continues what's been an absolutely wild storyline to follow in regards to Swayman's worth and his next contract.

Led by a strong second-half surge, the 24-year-old Swayman finished the 2022-23 season with a 24-6-4 record and .920 save percentage. Swayman's 24 wins were the 15th-most in hockey, while his .920 ranked fourth among qualifying goaltenders. Swayman’s 11.63 goals saved above average at five-on-five also ranked 13th in the NHL (per NaturalStatTrick), while his .870 high-danger save percentage was tied for the fifth-best figure among the group of 40 goalies with at least 1,500 five-on-five minutes played.

By every measurement, Swayman certainly feels worth the investment on the part of the Bruins. (And I have no doubt that they will invest in him.) But he's still the 1B to reigning Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark's 1A status until proven otherwise, and Boston's cap situation doesn't exactly allow them to pay Swayman like a Spencer Knight or Jake Oettinger — long-considered two potential contract comparables — in the now.

It's also worth noting that the Bruins themselves may have different comps for Swayman than many outside the organization, and comments by Don Sweeney back in June by all means confirmed as much.

"In all due respect to everyone doing their own research, you do need to be a little careful of what your comp is and what the rules state a comp is," Sweeney said when discussing Swayman's next deal. "Evan [Gold] does a lot of work on that regard. We’ve been having discussions with Lewis [Gross] and Sway. We’ve clearly indicated that we’d like to find the common ground. We know that there’s a path of arbitration if it’s necessary, it’s not the path, either side would want to. So, we’ll just continue to talk."

(Sweeney's references there is likely a nod to the fact that Spencer Knight was not an arbitration-eligible free agent when he signed his extension with the Panthers, and neither was Oettinger, thus the situations weren't considered comparable in their minds.)

Swayman, meanwhile, planned on taking a completely hands off approach to the talks.

“I’m just taking it day by day and letting my agent be involved and take control,” Swayman said back in May of his upcoming contract negotiations with the club. “I have no doubt it will be a fun contract and good things will happen.”

Swayman has also made it clear that he wants to remain part of a one-two with Ullmark.

“We’re both upset with what’s happened and we want to make sure that moving forward, we do whatever we can to make sure it won’t happen again,” Swayman offered. “We took so many positives this year, made so many incredible things together. Come playoff time next year, we’re going to do everything we can to make sure we make it to that second round, third round, and fourth round.”

Should the sides meet in the middle via arbitration (or on their own) with a $3.5 million contract, the Bruins would have a goaltending tandem accounting for $8.5 million of their salary cap. It would be a noticeable jump from the combined $5.925 million cap hit in the first two years of the Ullmark-Swayman Hug-A-Thon, but it wouldn't be exactly foreign to the Bruins, who were paying similar rates during the Tuukka Rask era with Anton Khudobin and Jaroslav Halak as Rask's backups.

“We’ve been pretty fortunate over the years with what our total cap hit for goaltending has been compared to some other teams," Bruins president Cam Neely said last month. "We’ll see where everything plays out with Swayman, but there are certain areas where you look at goaltending, bottom six, you’re going to have to pay your top players, that’s just the way it is. So, it’s a matter of how you allocate and how you think you should allocate the bottom part of your lineup, your bottom pair D and your two goaltenders.”

Should the arbitrator meet the sides in the middle and award Swayman a $3.5 million contract, the Bruins would be left with $3.46 million in projected cap space, and with Trent Frederic still in need of a new contract. That $3.46 million figure also has the Bruins with just 11 forwards and seven defensemen on the roster.

The Bruins will not be able to cite their salary cap situation in a potential arbitration hearing, and they would not be able to walk away from any arbitrator's award unless it eclipses $4.5 million.

The Bruins and Swayman's camp are free to continue to negotiate until the hearing.