What to watch for when the New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
On Sunday the New England Patriots wrap up a November slate that has them on the road for three of four weeks. To close out the month the team heads to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins.
This isn’t any road trip for the Patriots. Traveling to South Florida has hardly been a vacation for the team, especially in recent years. The Patriots haven’t won in Miami since Week 2 of the 2019 season, and are 2-9 in their last 11 games facing the Dolphins as the visitor.
“I won’t address it with the guys as far as the struggles that we’ve had in Miami, even though they’re probably listening to me right now. But what I will say is every game is unique,” head coach Jerod Mayo said on Wednesday when asked about the Patriots’ struggles in Miami. “Every game is unique. It’s a tough place to play. It’s not that it’s super loud or anything like that. We just haven’t been able to get over the hump.”
The significant change in climate has often been cited as one issue for all teams – not just New England – playing in Miami. There’s also the element of familiarity of a division opponent. Of those last 11 matchups, eight were the second meeting between the teams this season (with the Patriots going 1-7 in those games).
That will be the case again this year, after the Dolphins visited the Patriots in Week 5 in a game Miami won 15-10. However this second matchup isn’t the same as most second matchups, mostly because both teams will have different starting quarterbacks. Let’s start there as we get into this week’s “5 Things”…
Talking Tua
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 11: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium on November 11, 2024 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Last time the Patriots faced the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa was in concussion protocol and did not play. Tyler Huntley got the start in his place, completing 18 of his 31 passes for 194 yards and an interception in the win.
Tagovailoa has since returned, and the Patriots will see him for the first time this season on Sunday. He’s been playing well since returning from that concussion – in four games he’s completed 77.7 percent of his passes for 960 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception. With him under center, the Dolphins have won back-to-back games.
“I will say this isn’t the same Dolphins team that we played before,” Jerod Mayo said on Wednesday. “Tua’s [Tagovailoa] here. You can see just the difference in that offense with Tua out there. Very good player for them.”
While Tagovaila’s teams have traditionally had success against the Patriots, under Bill Belichick they had historically done a good job containing him. In six starts against the Patriots Tagovailoa is 6-0. However over the first five starts though his production was pedestrian – he completed 68.8 percent of his passes while averaging 195 passing yards per game with four touchdowns and three turnovers. He threw more than 30 passes only twice in those games, with the highest being 33 in Week 1 in 2022. In those games the Dolphins’ offense never accounted for more than 24 points.
It wasn’t until the final meeting last year that he had his first big game against the Patriots. In that Week 8 meeting in New England Tagovailoa completed 30 of 45 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns with one interception in a 31-17 Miami win.
With Tagovailoa in a rhythm as of late, the Patriots can’t allow a repeat performance. Turning up the head on quarterbacks has been an issue for the Patriots this year, but even if they did manage to get after him in this game Tagovailoa has handled pressure better than just about anybody else this season. His 126.2 passer rating under pressure leads all NFL quarterbacks this year, with Joe Burrow the only other qualified quarterback even over 100. An absence of pressure from the Patriots won’t be as apparent as it would against other matchups.
Turning up the pressure – something the Patriots haven’t been able to do much this season – isn’t the trump card to lean on in this game. Instead it’s making plays in coverage, which leads us to our second point…
Handling motion
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 19: Christian Gonzalez #0 of the New England Patriots in action during the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 19, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
On Thursday Patriots defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington said “fast” is the word to describe the Miami offense. While that’s probably not a surprise to anybody who follows the team, just because we’re used to this lineup doesn’t take away just how much speed there is on the field at all skill positions.
The Dolphins maximize that speed by using pre-snap motion to get players head starts (they have the highest motion rate in the NFL, just ahead of the Rams). Last week the Patriots struggled against motion. They allowed 9.2 yards per play on plays where the Rams used motion, while that number dropped to 4.5 yards per play on plays where they didn’t.
Granted, the philosophy behind the Rams’ motion and Dolphins’ motion differ. The Rams use it more as a way to get receivers open, while the Dolphins use it more as a distraction. Covington referred to Miami’s usage as “eye-candy” on Thursday.
Whatever the concept behind it, the Patriots have to be better about defending motion plays. This is where their familiarity with the Dolphins could help. Having played this group of receivers before, players should be more prepared and more confident in their assignments as things change pre-snap.
That starts with Christian Gonzalez, whose usage last week drew plenty of criticism. This week should be simpler. Gonzalez has primarily covered top Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill in each of the last two matchups he was on the field.
In those two games Hill wasn’t exactly blanked but didn’t have a massive impact either – he caught three passes for 32 yards with Gonzalez in coverage in their first matchup last year, then three catches for 34 yards earlier this year. In the game in between when Gonzalez was on IR last year, Hill had his best game against the Patriots since joining the Dolphins catching eight passes for 112 yards and a score.
Who does that leave on Jaylen Waddle? Unlike last week where the Patriots didn’t have the size to match up with the Rams’ bigger receivers, they are better equipped to handle the Dolphins’ speed. Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones are both options, with Marcus coming off of a stronger performance last week.
More Marcus Jones on offense?
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – NOVEMBER 03: Marcus Jones #25 of the New England Patriots carries the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium on November 03, 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)
What better way to transition from the Patriots’ defense to offense than talking about Marcus Jones. Jones made his 2024 offensive debut last week, playing two snaps including a five-yard carry.
Jones was a standout as a gadget player for the Patriots’ offense during the second half of the 2022 season, but didn’t get to play the role much last year before getting hurt. While he has insisted he remains primarily a defensive player, apparently he got enough of an itch to text offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt leading up to last week’s game and let him know he’d be open to an offensive role again.
“He called and asked. Seriously, he did. He texted me,” Van Pelt shared on Thursday, while acknowledging it was the first time he was made aware of Jones’ history and ability on the offensive side of the ball. “So, I watched 19 plays of his that he’s done here as an offensive player. He obviously brings a lot of juice, tremendous ball-carrier, speed, his ability to see the field.”
“We try to find some place just to get our guys in the best position to make plays and felt like he would give us a little spark there,” Van Pelt continued. “We’ll see how it goes moving forward.”
Now that Van Pelt is aware of what Jones can do offensively, will the Patriots continue to mix him in on that side of the ball? Given Miami’s defense has already seen them once this year (albeit with a different quarterback), that kind of wrinkle could be extra effective in this matchup. Even if Jones doesn’t end up getting the ball every time, just having him out there as an option for the defense to have to think about could open up opportunities for other players.
Drake Maye’s next goal
Nov 17, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
The last meeting between the Patriots and Dolphins was Jacoby Brissett’s last start this season. In that game Brissett completed 18 of his 34 pass attempts for 160 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the 15-10 loss.
This time around the Patriots’ offense will look more dynamic with Drake Maye under center. Maye will be making his seventh career start, and will be looking to play his first full divisional matchup (he left his start against the Jets after one quarter after being placed in concussion protocol).
As Maye enters what is essentially the second half of his season (six starts down, with what should be six more to go), turnovers remain the biggest issue. Cutting down on giveaways should be the biggest focus for him and the team moving forwards.
While that may seem like a more abstract goal, Alex Van Pelt actually put a number on it on Thursday. “We want to take care of the football. If we can get out of the season on the full year with under, say, ten interceptions – maybe two or three of those are tip balls that are just freaky ones – then we’d feel pretty good,” he said.
So far Maye has six interceptions in six starts, so to hit Van Pelt’s number his interception rate will need to go down slightly. That number also doesn’t include fumbles, which Maye has lost a couple of. Overall though, it’s not a bad goal.
Maye should be able to take care of the football this week against a Dolphins defense that has not turned the ball over much. Their nine takeaways rank 23rd in the NFL, with six interceptions in 10 games.
Cole Strange’s return looming
Patriots offensive lineman Cole Strange during a Wednesday practice. (Alex Barth/98.5 The Sports Hub)
Interior offensive lineman Cole Strange returned to practice this week, taking the field for the first time since suffering a severe knee injury last December. While the Patriots have been quick to activate players from IR this year, based on the way coaches talked this week it sounded like he could be a week or two away from returning to game action (Mayo said on Wednesday the Patriots would take that “day-by-day”).
Whenever Strange returns, the big question is where he will play. Through his first two seasons with the Patriots he was a left guard, but has also been working at center and right guard during his rehab.
Even if Strange doesn’t play this week, the answer to that question could be decided in Miami. Both left guard Michael Jordan and center Ben Brown have given the Patriots more than was initially expected, but both have started to fall off in recent weeks.
(Meanwhile, right guard seems like a less likely spot, with the Patriots saying they prefer Mike Onwenu there after starting the season with him at right tackle.)
With Strange’s return looming, both of those players now enter the spotlight. Who will show the team they should be kept in the lineup? That will be a key takeaway coming away from this game.
