Looking at the biggest storylines when the New England Patriots visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
It’s been just over a week since the New England Patriots’ reality-reminding 24-3 loss to the New York Jets. With that game being on a Thursday night the team had and has extra time to get ready for their next game, this Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.
Coming into the 2024 season this was viewed as likely one of the Patriots’ toughest games. The 49ers are coming off of a Super Bowl appearance and returned the majority of their 2023 roster heading into the season.
Fast forward to Week 4 though, and the picture has changed a little bit. Injuries have piled up, and the team has struggled in close games. At 1-2, San Francisco has the ninth-best scoring offense in the NFL (after finishing last year ranked third), but the 21st ranked scoring defense (they also finished third in this category in 2023).
Does that make the 49ers beatable for the Patriots? Or is this a team looking for a ‘get-right game’ against an opponent that is supposed to be one of the weakest on its schedule?
Last time the Patriots and 49ers squared off it was the 2020 COVID season. San Francisco was also coming off of a Super Bowl loss that year, but sat just 3-3 as they came to Foxboro in late October.
What resulted was the Niners’ biggest win of the year, a 33-6 game that saw them out-gain the Patriots 467 yards to 241. That didn’t end up being the ‘get-right game’ they needed as San Francisco went 2-7 from that point on, but for a moment it looked like they had things fixed against the Patriots.
With both teams coming into this meeting off what were jarring losses (for different reasons), it should be clear where the focus will be on each side. We’ll get to those in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things’ but first, let’s take a look at the bigger wild card at play this week…health.
Who San Francisco will, and could, be missing
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 28: Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Both teams come into this game banged up. Each side will be limited, with the 49ers star power potentially significantly impacted. Running back Christian McCaffrey won’t play in this game, after being placed on IR a few weeks ago. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave will also miss the game after suffering a torn triceps last week.
Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel missed practice to start the week, before returning on Thursday. Samuel’s status is up in the air, as he was initially expected to miss multiple weeks when he suffered the injury in Week 2.
The 49ers offense could be limited beyond that, with key players potentially playing hurt. Quarterback Brock Purdy, tight end George Kittle, and tackle Trent Williams all appeared on the injury report as well.
There have obviously been games this year where the Patriots have avoided playing star players due to injury. But this 49ers team is as banged up as any in the NFL right now.
“Obviously, their record’s not really reflective of the team that they are and can be going forward,” Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said this week. “They’re dealing with injuries as well. What I will say is the challenge for us is just in the front: offensive line and defensive line. I don’t want to sound repetitive, but they are a do-what-they-do type of team, and we know what they’re going to do, the fans know what they’re going to do, but you still have to stop them. They have a lot of good players on that team, offensively and defensively, All-Pro-caliber players almost at every level if you really look at the roster. So, it’s definitely a challenge.”
As for the Patriots, their biggest injury concerns come on the offensive line. Guard Michael Jordan and tackle Vederian Lowe didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, likely indicating they won’t play this week. Backup left tackle Caedan Wallace was limited all week, as well as guard Sidy Sow. The Patriots are also banged up at cornerback, with Christian Gonzalez and Jonathan Jones both limited with shoulder injuries on Wednesday and Thursday.
49ers late game loss(es)
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 22: Sean McVay, head coach of the Los Angeles Rams, embraces Kyle Shanahan, head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, after a game at SoFi Stadium on September 22, 2024 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
To put it simply – this is an angry, motivated 49ers team the Patriots will face this week. Last week, San Francisco suffered what felt like as consequential of a loss as a team can have this early in the season. Despite having a 21-7 lead late in the third quarter against an equally-banged-up and division rival Los Angeles Rams team the 49ers couldn’t finish things out and fell 27-24 on a late field goal.
How have the Niners reacted to that loss this week?
“It’s been tough to sleep the last couple of nights. Just, mind racing,” edge rusher Nick Bosa told reporters on Wednesday. “Always this time of year I’m itching to get to Sunday, but after that it’s major.”
While that kind loss may be motivating for the 49ers, it also isn’t new. San Francisco has struggled to close out close games in recent years, including in last year’s Super Bowl.
If the Patriots can keep this game close heading into the fourth quarter, would those Niners issues emerge again? San Francisco will have the talent advantage in this game, but that hasn’t prevented them from falling apart late in the past. Can the Patriots put themselves in position to take advantage?
Will the Patriots’ tackling improve?
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 19: Tyler Conklin #83 of the New York Jets breaks a tackle against the New England Patriots during the third quarter in the game at MetLife Stadium on September 19, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Niners tripped themselves up late in their game last week, but the Patriots hurt themselves for a full 60 minutes against the Jets. Their most glaring issue? Tackling.
In that Jets game the Patriots missed on 13 tackles per PFF. That’s more than they missed in all but one game last year.
In that sense, the absence of Ja’Whaun Bentley was felt immediately. Only two Patriots players recorded multiple missed tackles – the two that mainly filled Bentley’s roles, Jahlani Tavai and Raekwon McMillan.
Granted the Patriots were coming off of a short week, which both impacted their physical condition and the amount of time they had to replace a key player like Bentley. With a longer layoff before this game though, there should be no excuse. They have to be better at the point of attack.
With their extra day of prep this week, the Patriots held a fundamentals-based practice on Monday, according to Jerod Mayo. In speaking with the media, Mayo mentioned tackling as being one of the focus points of that practice.
On the other side, the Patriots will have to work hard to gain extra yardage after contact – something that was key for them in the first two weeks of the season. San Francisco has been one of the most sure-tackling defenses so far, with their 12 missed tackles ranking them third in the category behind only the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers (both have 11) per Pro Football Reference.
Keeping Jacoby Brissett clean
Sep 15, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) at the line against the Seattle Seahawks in the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
On offense, the Patriots’ biggest issue last week was protecting their quarterback. Jacoby Brissett was pressured on 56.5 percent of his dropbacks per Next Gen Stats. That’s the second-highest total for any quarterback in a game this year. For the season Brissett has been pressured on 47.6 percent of his dropbacks – the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks in the NFL this season.
The hits Brissett has been absorbing were a common talking point among the Patriots this week. “He’s a sturdy, big guy. He’s tough as nails. He always gets up,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said on Thursday. “Obviously [we] would love to take the hits off of him. But, he’s a guy that can stand in there and he’s built to take it. Big boned guy with a big lower half that can stand in there and take it. Don’t want him to take them, obviously. But, hopefully we can clean up the protection issues as we move forward and keep him cleaner.”
“He’s a tough S.O.B., man. He took some shots,” tight end Austin Hooper said. “I mean, for that guy to peel himself up off the turf like that time and time again, it’s impressive, man. To see some of those hits on tape it’s like, ‘jeez.’ He’s a very tough guy. When you have a guy like that who’s always in it, it builds juice. So we’re all – in this locker room – really proud about how tough that guy is sitting in there doing it week in, week out. I mean, I don’t think there’s been a single week where he hasn’t come out without taking a big time NFL style collision. And he doesn’t say anything about it. Just gets right back up, good attitude, cool, communicating with the guys, and next play.”
Can the Patriots take some of the pressure – literally and figuratively – off Brissett this week, and allow him to get more comfortable in the passing game? To do so they’ll have to slow down one of the top pass rushers in the game in Nick Bosa.
What has it been like game planning for Bosa? “Nightmare,” Van Pelt said on Thursday. “Great player. Generational player. Speed, power, all of it. Definitely an issue and definitely a concern regarding – we have to make sure that we don’t let him ruin the game for us because he is that type of rusher.“
Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will need to figure out ways to throw off the 49ers’ pass rush with a limited offensive line. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
That problem could be exacerbated by the Patriots’ current tackle situation. Both Vederian Lowe and Caedan Wallace remain limited at practice, and may not be ready to go in this game. Based on what we’ve seen in practice it looks like Demontrey Jacobs could get the start at left tackle this week, with Lowe and/or Wallace potentially replacing him if things really aren’t working out.
Jacobs, 25, made his NFL debut last week playing 14 snaps after Wallace got hurt. He was claimed by the Patriots on waivers following final roster cuts, after spending his rookie season in 2023 on the Denver Broncos practice squad.
At the same time, there are some things Brissett can do to help himself. Mainly, getting the ball out of his hands quickly before the pass rush can get home.
“The way you approach the game as a quarterback is this is a ‘get the ball out of your hand’ week,” Van Pelt explained on Thursday. “We’re going to obviously hold the ball and on third downs and push it down the field, but at the same time there is a bit of that – let’s get it out of our hands and get it into our guys’ hands and let them go with it after that.”
If that is going to be at least part of the Patriots’ plan, it could mean another big game for Pop Douglas. Douglas is the Patriots’ top after the catch threat at wide receiver, and runs some of the quicker-hitting routes in the offense.
“I start twinkling my toes,” Douglas told 98.5 with a laugh when asked his reaction to that Van Pelt comment on Thursday. “I’ve just got to get open so I give a quarterback a good target to get the ball out fast.”
After a slow start to the season Douglas featured in a volume role last week, catching seven passes on nine targets. He also got a designed carry. If the Patriots are going to lean more on quick-hitting passing concepts this week, a similar workload could be in store.
“Ball security is job security”
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 08: Rhamondre Stevenson #38 of the New England Patriots runs the ball against Dax Hill #23 of the Cincinnati Bengals during the first quarter at Paycor Stadium on September 08, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
Turnovers are always tough to overcome, but that will be especially true for this Patriots team against the 49ers offense.
The biggest player to watch in terms of turnovers on the Patriots is Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s fumbled in each of the first three games, losing his first fumble of the year last week. His ball security – as well as the ball security for the team as a whole – was a focus in practice this week.
“Look, we always say that ball security is job security, and we’re all disappointed in really three fumbles, and he understands that,” Jerod Mayo said of Stevenson this week. “It’s definitely a point of emphasis [Wednesday]. We’ll go out there and practice in full pads.”
“It’s like yelling at your child. You love the guy and he does the right thing a majority of the time, but it’s an issue. You’ve got to sit down and address him,” Alex Van Pelt said on Thursday when asked about addressing Stevenson’s fumble issues. “And he’s more embarrassed by it than anybody else. He’s a prideful guy. He does great things for us in the run game. He’s just got a hold on that ball. And he knows it, he’d be the first one to tell you.”
“My mindset is to hold the ball,” Stevenson told reporters on Thursday. “Just do what I’m doing, don’t sacrifice how I’m running the ball. Just keep it on my mind to hold the ball.”
Mayo has mentioned multiple times this year the Patriots and Stevenson in particular “having a target” on their backs after fumbling issues. Expect the 49ers to make a point of punching at the ball while tackling in this game. San Francisco has forced three fumbles so far this year, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL through three games.
The good news for Stevenson is that he comes into this game with plenty of rest. After leading the NFL with 51 touches through the first two weeks, Stevenson had just six touches last week before the longer layoff.
