We’re now just a few days away from the New England Patriots kicking off their 2023 season against the Philadelphia Eagles. So much about this team has been broken down and dissected at various levels since training camp started in late July, so let’s have some fun and go off the map a bit, with our annual Patriots’ bold predictions.
Now keep in mind, these are bold predictions. We’re not saying all, or any, are going to happen. They reflect the extremes of what is possible for this team.
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In three years of writing this column, two projections have proven to be correct – both in the first year in 2020. Those were Cam Newton catching a touchdown pass, and Ja’Whaun Bentley being the only Patriots linebacker to play over half the team’s snaps.
Will there be another correct ‘bold’ prediction this year? Are these goals too lofty? Or are they not really that bold at all? Let’s get started with a projection on offense that goes against one of the biggest talking points from this summer…
The Patriots will rank in the top five of the league in lowest pressure rate allowed
Dec 12, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; New England Patriots center David Andrews (60) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The story of the summer has been the struggles of the Patriots’ offensive line. Those issues were on display throughout the preseason, culminating in the team not starting Mac Jones in the preseason finale, reportedly because they were not comfortable with the level of protection he would have in the game.
It is important to remember though, that the Patriots were playing mostly backups throughout the summer. The team returns its four regular starters from last year’s offensive line in David Andrews, Trent Brown, Mike Onwenu, and Cole Strange. All but Andrews missed significant time during the summer.
With that group leading the way, Jones was pressured on 29.2 percent of his dropbacks, per PFF. That was actually the fifth-lowest among 20 qualified quarterbacks. So in reality, we’re just expecting them to match last year’s number. But how?
Now you may notice there are only four offensive linemen listed above, when in reality there are five starters up front. That’s where the first of two big questions for this year comes in – the right tackle position. While the Patriots return four of their five starters, the four players they rotated through the right tackle spot last year – Isaiah Wynn (left in free agency), Conor McDermott (on IR), Marcus Cannon (still unsigned), and Yodny Cajuste (left in FA) – are all gone. Of all of Jones’ pressures last year, that group combined to allow 29.9 percent of the total.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Quarterback Mac Jones #10 and offensive tackle Conor McDermott #75 of the New England Patriots run off the field after the Patriots scored on a two-point conversion attempt against the Las Vegas Raiders in the fourth quarter of their game at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders defeated the Patriots 30-24. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
This year, the Patriots will enter the year picking up where they left off at right tackle last season – with a carousel with no clear answer. Veterans Calvin Anderson and Riley Reiff, second-year trade acquisitions Vederian Lowe and Tyrone Wheatley Jr., and rookie Sidy Sow are all candidates to fill the role (Onwenu should be too, but they’ve been hesitant to move him from guard in the past).
The other question for this year’s Patriots offensive line is depth. But again, they’ve gone from one group of revolving right tackles to another. On the interior, James Ferentz was the only backup to play last season. He’s back on the practice squad, with rookies Atonio Mafi and Jake Andrews on the roster. So the depth issues are there, but they’re not really any different from last season.
While the Patriots’ offensive line struggled at times last year, and then again this summer, the struggles are on par with the rest of the league. There’s a shortage of offensive line talent in the NFL, and the Patriots aren’t the only team that is feeling it.
There’s one other factor at play here – and this time a change from last year – that should help with this, and that’s the additions of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and offensive line coach Adrian Klemm. For most of last season, the Patriots didn’t do much in terms of scheme to mitigate their tackle problems. Based on moves they’ve made the past few weeks they seem to be very aware of their shortcomings at the position this year. Expect them to scheme around the offensive line with things such as quick passing concepts, RPOs, and play action in order to keep Jones throwing from clean pockets. They may be willing to sacrifice elsewhere (less focus on deep passing concepts or long developing route combinations, as well as less traditional runs) to bolster the O-line.
Kendrick Bourne will make the Pro Bowl
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 12: Kendrick Bourne #84 of the New England Patriots lines up against Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Kendrick Bourne was the Patriots’ best wide receiver this summer. That may have come as a surprise to some people, but it really shouldn’t have.
Let’s go back to 2021. In his first year in New England, Bourne was the team’s leading or second-leading receiver in most major passing categories. He caught 55 passes for exactly 800 yards and five touchdowns – all career highs.
What was even more impressive was a stretch Bourne went on in the middle of the year. During the summer leading up to that season Bourne admitted to the offensive playbook being difficult to pick up. There was a clear demarcation of where he found his stride though, and become more involved in the offense. In the 10 game stretch from Week 3 to Week 12 (after which he got COVID and was on the field less often), Bourne caught 39 passes for 596 yards, and five touchdowns. Extrapolated out to a full season, those numbers reach 66 catches, 1,013 yards, and eight touchdowns.
Given that, it made sense when Bourne was projected as a breakout candidate in 2022. However, in reality his role in the offense was significantly deemphasized. His targets were cut nearly in half (70 to 48) and his playing time dipped from 52 percent to 44 percent – the lowest among the five receivers to spend the entire year on the roster.
This year, Bourne looks ready to pick up where he left off in 2021, has a coaching staff that believes in him, and seems to have the best chemistry with Mac Jones of any of the receivers. Could the 28-year-old wide receiver have a ‘breakout’ year in his seventh NFL season? While that’s definitely not the typical timeline, keep in mind Bourne was somewhat buried on the depth chart in San Francisco for four years, came to New England and started to breakout in Year 5, then got buried again in Year 6.
2023 is lining up to be a big year for Bourne. But Pro Bowl big? We’ll see.
Keion White will finish top two on the team in sacks
Jul 27, 2023; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive end Keion White (51) works with a weight bag during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Last year the Patriots had two players finish in the top 12 in the league in sacks (Matthew Judon was fourth with 15.5, Josh Uche was tied for 12th with 11.5) and three finish in the top 40 (Deatrich Wise was tied for 39th with 7.5). Could a rookie crack that rotation? If so, look to Keion White.
White was arguably the Patriots’ most impressive rookie this summer. His combination of size (6-foot-5, 290 pounds) and athleticism is unique, and he still has a ton of room to grow technically having just started playing defensive end four years ago (he was recruited out of high school as a tight end).
Early on in the season, White figures to be an early-down player who will be asked to set the edge against the run. However, he’s flashed potential as a pass rusher throughout the summer. Could he play well enough early on to warrant more than a rotational role, and start playing on all three downs? If he does, he’ll benefit from the attention offenses will pay to Judon and Uche, and should get plenty of one-on-one opportunities. If he can win those opportunities, he has the physical ability to chase down even some of the more elusive quarterbacks on the Patriots’ schedule.
Both Chad Ryland and Bryce Baringer will play in all 17 games
Jul 27, 2023; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots punter Bryce Baringer (59) and place kicker Chad Ryland (62) leave the practice field after training camp at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s have some fun with semantics here. This may not seem like a very bold prediction, but history tells us that it is.
Since the NFL expanded to a 16-game scheduled in 1978, only seven teams have had both a rookie kicker and rookie punter play full seasons. That averages out to just under once a decade. The previous teams to go a full season with a rookie kicker and punter are…
–2019 Cleveland Browns (K Austin Seibert, P Jamie Gillan)
–2015 Miami Dolphins (K Andrew Franks, P Matt Darr)
–2012 St. Louis Rams (K Greg Zuerlein, P Johnny Hekker)
–2011 Philadelphia Eagles (K Alex Henery, P Chas Henry)
–1988 New England Patriots (K Teddy Garcia, P Jeff Feagles)
–1979 Philadelphia Eagles (K Tony Franklin, P Max Runager)Will Chad Ryland and Bryce Baringer end up adding their names to that list? The Patriots are known as being a team that is less patient that average when it comes to rookies, but the investment they made in drafting both players should come with the understanding that there are growing pains at times with rookie specialists.
(If Ryland and Baringer do play the full season, they’d be only the second duo of drafted rookie teammate kicker and punters to play a full season for their team, joining Franklin and Runager.)
When it comes to Baringer, the Patriots do have an insurance option on the practice squad in lefty Corliss Waitman. As for Ryland, he has no competition left in the building after the trade of Nick Folk. Early indications look like the Patriots are ready to stick it out with both players, so we’ll see if they can become the eighth such duo in a 45-year span.
