UFC 327 Preview: Picks, predictions, and more

UFC 327 is this Saturday with the main card kicking off at 9 p.m. EST. My goal for these write-ups is to give fans of all levels my thoughts, opinions, and predictions for the biggest fights in MMA.

Cub Swanson is suiting up for one last fight. The 42-year-old veteran of 25 (!) UFC fights will have his retirement match at UFC 327 against Nate “The Train” Landwehr.

Short of a physical title, Cub’s resume is Hall of Fame worthy. He holds the record for most post-fight bonuses (11) in the featherweight division, as well as the second most knockouts (7) behind Max Holloway. His classic 2016 battle with Doo Ho Choi is already in the UFC HoF, and I’d expect Swanson to make it in the next few years.

It’s a long way of saying that I have thoroughly enjoyed what Cub Swanson has meant to MMA and, regardless of outcome, look forward to watching Cub compete one last time.

Cub’s opponent, Nate Landwehr, is seeking a win following back-to-back KO losses to Doo Ho Choi and Morgan Charriere. A former M-1 Global featherweight champion, Nate the Train loves to set a frantic pace on the feet. He’s also a capable grappler, but I don’t expect much in the way of groundwork here.

How will this fight go? I’m expecting a war to open the main card. While I don’t make a habit of backing retiring fighters on the wrong side of 40, I’m leaning towards Cub using Landwehr’s aggression against him. Landwehr is not shy about getting his chin tested. Cub found success catching Billy Quarantillo with jabs and looping hooks on entry, and I could see a repeat of that performance.

Storybook finishes are few and far between in a sport designed to cannibalize the old to boost the young. Ideally, Cub can feed off the energy of a crowd looking to see him win one final time.

PREDICTION: Cub Swanson (+100)

Dominick Reyes’ career resembles a rollercoaster ride. “The Devastator” is most famous for giving Jon Jones the fight of his life back in 2020. Despite coming out on the wrong side of a pretty controversial decision loss to Jones, Reyes’ credibility in the sport had all but been established.

In this analogy, the six-fight win streak leading to a title match with Jonny Bones is the peak of the coaster. But just like any thrill ride, the cart would inevitably rocket back down.

Following the Jones loss, Reyes would suffer brutal KO losses to former light heavyweight champions Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Procházka, with the latter resulting in multiple facial fractures. A third KO loss to Ryan Spann seemingly spelled the end of Reyes’ time in the UFC.

But after an almost two-year hiatus, Dominick Reyes bounced back and has been looking like his old self with wins in three of his last four fights.

Facing Reyes is the UFC’s resident wild card, Johnny Walker.

I have put a good amount of thought into how I would describe Johnny Walker to the uninitiated. Johnny Walker is a specimen within the 205-pound weight class. At 6’5, the 34-year-old Brazilian is a very dangerous striker who possesses major finishing ability. He’s also a BJJ brown belt and doesn’t shy away from grappling exchanges on the mat.

But his unique power and athletic ability do not tell the full story. 

Walker’s willingness to get into wild, chaotic exchanges has led to a few first-round losses, including a cartoonish KO loss to Jamahal Hill in 2022.

Self-preservation has never been big with Johnny. 

Still, I think there is hope for Walker after a somewhat surprising win over the surging Mingyang Zhang in August. He showed a level of patience and poise that could make him a true danger in this fight.

How will this fight go? Both fighters hold dynamite in their fists…and some glass in their jaws. I will defer to the experience of Reyes and hope that the second act of his UFC career is not a fluke. It's also worth mentioning that Dom is a new dad as of December.

PREDICTION: Reyes inside the distance (+100)

I need to stretch for this next one.

If you follow my commentary on Twitter, you may be aware of how down I am on the state of the UFC heavyweight division. To be as succinct as possible, it’s bad.

This could explain why 28-year-old prospect Josh Hokit is getting thrown into the deep end against No.5 ranked Curtis “Razor” Blaydes.

The 8-0 Hokit fights his fights with a mix of pace and power that is refreshing for a division overrun with slow, plodding combatants. Look no further than his first-round finish of Denzel Freeman earlier this year.

While his in-ring performances speak for themselves, I think he is cringe and unoriginal any time he opens his mouth with impressions of Chael Sonnen and Conor McGregor missing the mark BADLY. Either way, the UFC brass is obviously curious about what they have in Hokit.

Hokit is already making a nuisance of himself at media day...

His opponent, Curtis Blaydes, is a significant step up in competition. Blaydes has amassed a 14-5 record in his ten years with the UFC. The NCJAA All-American is known to be one of the best wrestlers in the division and is capable of winning fights on his feet as well.

How will this fight go? Hokit looks to force takedowns as soon as he can close the distance. He’s more than capable of controlling his opponent once he gets him on the ground. The real question is, can he apply that strategy to arguably the best wrestler in the heavyweight division? 

The fact is nobody takes down Curtis Blaydes. Only Jailton Almeida was able to take the 35-year-old MMA veteran off his feet, and that bout ended with Blaydes viciously stopping Almeida after stuffing a takedown attempt.

The other thing working for Blaydes is his build. Blaydes' 6-foot-4 frame and 80” reach could present problems for the smaller Hokit.

With the larger Octagon in play, I think we see another low-volume slog that has become the standard for UFC heavyweight fights. And I’ll give the edge to the experienced Blaydes.

PREDICTION: Hokit - Blayes goes the distance (+150)

Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa is the new UFC 327 co-main event after Joshua Van had to pull out of his fight with Tatsuro Taira due to injury.

Costa has had mixed results following his loss to Israel Adesanya for the middleweight championship back in 2020. His decision win last summer over Roman Kopylov was his first in about three years. Needless to say, “The Eraser” hasn’t found the consistency that led to his 5-0 start when he joined the UFC.

His opponent is 16-0 Azamat “The Professional” Murzakanov. The almost 37-year-old Russian is a true knockout artist with 12 of his 16 wins coming by KO. He is a patient fighter who is light on his feet and heavy with his hands.

How will this fight go? For me, the biggest factor in this bout is Costa going from 185 pounds to 205. His only other appearance at light heavyweight was the result of a bad weight cut leading up to his fight with Marvin Vettori, where he would lose a five-round decision.

It always felt like Costa had cut a lot of weight to make 185, so making the move to 205 could be beneficial long term.

But in the immediate, I anticipate Murzakanov’s explosive striking to negate whatever speed advantage Costa might have over him. Not to mention Costa’s lack of reach could put him in dangerous positions when setting up offense.

PREDICTION: Murzakanov by KO (+220)

Alex Pereira’s move to heavyweight means a vacant title at 205. Former champion Jiri Procházka has a chance to recapture the belt he gave up in 2022 when he faces off against Australian powerhouse Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg.

Full disclosure: I LOVE Jiri. In a sport of individuals, Procházka is a true one of one. The Czech-born fighter can usually be found living in a modest cottage outside his hometown village of Brno while adhering to Bushido life principles and moral values. He’s a modern-day samurai. More importantly, he can fight.

Carlos Ulberg is an Aussie kickboxer riding a nine-fight winning streak with six of those wins by knockout. The City Kickboxing product has fight ending power that Procházka needs to be cautious of.

How will this fight go? Only the fight gods know for sure. Ulberg thrives when opponents force the issue with him. He is a precise striker with a jab capable of flooring fighters quickly. In more measured contests, Ulberg will live outside and pick opponents apart with jabs and kicks from distance.

Patience is a virtue. For Ulberg, it's a key to victory.

Procházka is the exact opposite. I’d recommend his fight with Khalil Roundtree Jr. as an example because words don’t do his style justice. Procházka is an unorthodox striker who fires punches and kicks from out of nowhere. He also recklessly marches into the fire and eats shots that would end most fights. 

If Ulberg can’t keep Procházka in check with distance strikes, I see Jiri marching down Ulberg in the later stages of this fight similar to how he beat Roundtree. 

PREDICTION: Procházka by KO/TKO (+145)