Razor-thin margin, unexpected votes decide Matt Stafford-Drake Maye MVP race

The highly-debated Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye MVP race in 2025 delivered a dramatic result. Stafford was named MVP at NFL Honors on Thursday night, but the real story is how the votes broke down.

On the final tally, Maye essentially came one vote short of winning the MVP - with two other players beyond Stafford and Maye drawing a total of three first-place votes. The results of the voting, as shared by the Associated Press, were...

1.Matthew Stafford 366 points, (24 first-place votes)
2. Drake Maye 361, (23)
3. Josh Allen 91, (2)
4. Christian McCaffrey 71, (0)
5. Trevor Lawrence 49, (0)
-Additionally, Justin Herbert received one first-place vote but did not have enough overall points to finish in the top five.

That made the voting even closer than the All-Pro vote, when Stafford got 31 votes, Maye got 18, and Allen got one. Because that is also an AP vote, it was done by the same voting body.

MVP voting is done with voters ranking five players. Based on their ranking on each ballot players receiver 10, 5, 3, 2, or 1 point respective of where they rank.

This means that if one of those first-place votes for Allen or Herbert went to Maye - who finished just five points behind Stafford - he would have won the award. The numbers also suggest Maye may have finished behind second on some ballots. Even moving up to second on two of those could have flipped things. It was the closest race since Peyton Manning and Steve McNair tied and were named co-MVPs in 2003.

The dichotomy of this year's MVP race was a common one when discussing the award. Is it really picking the best player with the most impressive counting stats? Or should weight be put on the 'valuable' part of Most Valuable Player, even if that player wasn't the overall 'best' in the league?

Stafford represented the counting stats argument this year. He led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns with just eight interceptions in the regular season. No player was particularly close in either category.

Meanwhile Maye represented the value argument. Coming off of a four-win season with what was initially viewed as a lesser-than supporting cast Maye led the Patriots to 14 wins and a division title. While his classic passing numbers weren't on the level of Stafford he was still towards the top of the league standings in most (he did lead the league with a 72% completion percentage), while adding impressive running numbers and showing well in the advanced stats.

The thing is though, the same can be said for Allen and Herbert. The argument for those two definitely qualifies more as in the 'value' votes category than simply picking the best player. So those three voters that Maye needed big picture philosophically seem to have believed in the overall argument for him to win the award, but felt the other players fit that argument better.

In fact, that's exactly what voter Sam Monson noted on X/Twitter. Monson revealed he was the lone Herbert voter, sharing his argument after the result was announced.

"[Herbert] had the worst offensive line in the NFL all season and despite that he was working miracles in almost every single game," Monson wrote. "He embodied 'value.'" Monson's full argument can be found in a Twitter thread here.

Monson's value vote, plus the two votes for Allen, resulted in Allen and Herbert basically 'splitting' the vale vote with Maye. That split came at a margin that ultimately cost Maye the award.

To twist the knife a little further, this comes in the aftermath of the controversial 2024 MVP vote, in which Allen beat out Lamar Jackson despite Jackson having significantly better numbers across the board. That was one of the most extreme examples of voters bucking the 'best player' trend and truly focusing on value, with Allen leading the Bills to a 13-4 with less talent around him.

As that argument started to come up again this year, AP NFL senior writer Rob Maaddi shared the following in early January...

"Voters received guidance for the 8 NFL awards for the first time in 2024: The MVP award honors a player who had the most VALUABLE season. All-Pro honors the best players at each position, so it's more a statistical recognition vs. value."

It's unclear if that guidance was given again this year. If it was, it certainly would have helped Maye's case. If it was just a one-year thing, it makes Allen more of an outlier and might explain why this year's vote trended in a different direction.

Even being in the MVP conversation in Year 2 is impressive, and that alone says a lot about Maye. He should have more chances to win the award, but this vote will be talked about for a long time.

Despite Maye's loss, the Patriots didn't leave NFL Honors empty-handed. Mike Vrabel won Coach of the Year, Josh McDaniels won Assistant Coach of the Year, and longtime Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri was one of five players voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

As for Maye, he - and the team - have their sights set on a much bigger prize than individual awards. They'll play for a title in Super Bowl LX on Sunday. Maye has said multiple times this year that's really the ultimate goal.

But, for what it's worth, they give an MVP award for that game, too. While Maye may not leave San Francisco with the season-long MVP, taking that one home should mean more to him, and the team, at the end of the day.